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Bitcoin Drops Back to $98K, End-of-Year Bull Run Unlikely?

Bitpush

2025-11-14 10:41

Read this article in 13 Minutes

This round, Bitcoin dropped below $100,000, not due to retail investor panic, but as a typical structural adjustment of on-chain mid-to-long-term funds synchronously reducing their positions.

Original Article Title: "Bitcoin Falls Back to $98,000, Can We Say Goodbye to Year-End Rally?"

Original Article Author: Bootly, via Bitpush News

The official end of the U.S. government shutdown did not bring the expected market rebound.

During Thursday's intraday trading, all three major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% and the S&P 500 closing down 1.3%; gold lost a key support level;

Bitcoin also suffered a heavy blow, dropping to a low of $98,244 by the time of the U.S. stock market close, marking its lowest point since early May and the third time this month that Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark.

Market sentiment has slipped from a high point back into the "extreme fear" zone.

This long-awaited "government resume in operation" did not alleviate the market's structural pressures:

Liquidity tightening, concentrated selling by long-term holders, continued outflows from ETFs, and a rapid cooling of rate cut expectations.

America's Afternoon Session Becomes the "Bitcoin Bearish Main Force": Sharp Decline in Risk Appetite + Liquidity Constriction Resonance

Bitcoin rebounded to near $104,000 during the Asian session but quickly weakened upon entering the U.S. trading session, rapidly breaking through the $100,000 mark in the afternoon to touch a low of $98,000.

This trend closely followed the simultaneous sharp decline in U.S. tech stocks:

· Nasdaq plunging

· Cryptocurrency-related stocks like Coinbase and Robinhood trending downward

· Mining stocks leading the decline, with Bitdeer plummeting 19%, Bitfarms falling 13%, and several other mining companies seeing declines of over 10%

The fundamental reason is:

Rapid Cooling of Rate Cut Expectations → Full-Scale Sale of Risk Assets.

Last week, the market still believed there was an 85% probability of a rate cut in December;

Now, FedWatch shows only 66.9% likelihood.

The future of "cheap money" is no longer certain, making it naturally difficult to support Bitcoin's valuation.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is also draining liquidity.

During the government shutdown, the federal treasury recorded approximately $198 billion in surplus, and due to the extensive shutdown, the surplus in October may be even higher. This means that the government has temporarily reduced its market "blood transfusion."

Analyst Mel Mattison described it as: "This is the driest fiscal liquidity environment in months or even years."

Under the dual pressures of fiscal tightening and monetary cooling, the U.S. session has become the dominant force behind this round of Bitcoin's plummet.

However, Mattison also pointed out that fiscal contraction is only a short-term phenomenon: "The fiscal floodgates are about to reopen, and the Trump administration must increase stimulus before the midterm elections."

Concentrated Release of On-Chain Selling Pressure: LTH Profit-Taking Combined with Whale Dumping Triggered a Resonant Downward Movement

The recent drop in Bitcoin below $100,000 was not caused by retail panic, but rather a typical structural adjustment of on-chain mid-to-long-term fund simultaneous deleveraging.

CryptoQuant data shows that long-term holders (LTH) have collectively sold approximately 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the highest selling volume since January 2024. On November 7, there was about a $3 billion Bitcoin profit-taking sell-off on-chain, indicating that a large number of low-cost chip holders chose to realize gains at that price level. Similar-scale profit-taking selling pressure has occurred during the mid-stages of the bull markets in 2020 and 2021, often corresponding to phase-adjustment windows.

Meanwhile, whale activity has significantly increased, accelerating the downward pressure.

Arkham tracked:

· Early BTC whale Owen Gunden sold approximately $2.9 billion worth of BTC in a single day and still holds $2.5 billion in assets;

· A Satoshi-era whale who has held coins for nearly 15 years liquidated about $1.5 billion last week;

· In October, the large address 195DJ also sold a total of 13,004 BTC and continues to transfer chips to exchanges.

This implies:

LTH Taking Profit + Whale Concentrated Chip Movement → Forming Strong Selling Pressure in the Short Term.

ETF/ETP Funds Continue to Flow Out, Putting the Most Pressure on the US Market

According to the CoinShares report, global digital asset investment products have seen significant fund outflows for the second consecutive week, with net outflows reaching $1.17 billion last week. Most of the outflows occurred in the US market, with outflows totaling $1.22 billion, while the European market (Germany, Switzerland) still saw net inflows of around $90 million, showing a clear divergence.

Among them, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the "main battlefield" of this round of outflows:

· Bitcoin product net outflows of $932 million

· Ethereum product net outflows of $438 million

· During the same period, short Bitcoin products saw net inflows of $11.8 million, the highest level since May 2025

ETFs contributed significant upward momentum to Bitcoin in 2025, and when this buying pressure stagnates and turns to outflows, the price naturally comes under pressure.

Can It Still Hit a New High This Year?

Bitcoin is currently hovering below the 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant sees this as an important trend support level for this bull market cycle: once it rises above the average, the market is expected to strengthen again; if it continues to be under pressure, a mid-cycle pullback similar to September 2021 may occur.

The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 15 (extreme fear), similar to the heights of the "mid-bull market deep shakeout" stages in the past.

From a comprehensive perspective of macro, on-chain, ETF, and technical structure signals, the likelihood of breaking through the new high of $126,000 this year has significantly diminished.

By the end of the year, Bitcoin is more likely to range between $95,000 and $110,000.

To break through strongly, three key conditions need to be met:

· ETF Resumes Strong Inflows

· US Fiscal Stimulus Clearly Defined

· US Bond Yields Retreat, Dollar Liquidity Improves

However, from a policy timing perspective, these three factors are more likely to align in early 2026 rather than the end of 2025.

Outlook for 2026: Liquidity and the Economic Cycle May Resonate

Despite short-term pressures, Bitcoin's medium- to long-term trend remains robust.

2026 may even become the core year of this cycle.

① Macro Liquidity Expected to Truly Turn

With economic slowdown and weakening employment, the probability of the Federal Reserve entering a substantial interest rate cut cycle in 2026–2027 is rising.

② ETF Institutional Expansion Will Bring Larger Buyer Base

In 2025, ETFs have already validated the power of institutional buyers.

Against the backdrop of an interest rate cut cycle, "smart money" such as pensions, global asset management firms, and RIAs will deeply enter through ETFs, reshaping the valuation system.