Arthur Hayes: Money printing is about to accelerate, investors should boldly increase their holdings of crypto assets

According to BlockBeats, on April 24, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote that the current crypto bull market has just begun, and investors should boldly turn left (Left Curve), hold and increase positions. Hayes pointed out that 2024 is a critical year, and many major countries will hold presidential elections. Especially in the United States, the current ruling Democratic Party will do everything it can to win re-election in order to reverse the policies of the Republican Party. In an election year, if people feel that the economy is in recession, the probability of the incumbent president's re-election will drop from 67% to 33%. Therefore, the easiest way for the ruling party that controls monetary and fiscal policies is to significantly increase government spending, push up the growth rate of nominal GDP, and create an illusion that there is no recession. Data shows that US government spending has accounted for 23% of nominal GDP, that is, as long as the government is willing to borrow money, nominal GDP can be as much as it wants. According to the forecast of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), whether Biden or Trump comes to power, the fiscal deficit of the US government will continue to expand in the future. In addition, geopolitical conflicts surrounding the United States are still escalating, and politicians are happy to continue to provide billions of dollars in aid to allies. Hayes emphasized that as long as the government can borrow at an interest rate lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, politicians will continue to increase spending. Therefore, in the future, the scale of money printing will only be more exaggerated. He suggested that investors take advantage of the recent cryptocurrency price correction and slowly build positions. With the arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere, the volatility of the crypto market will also decrease, which is an excellent entry time for non-pre-sale round investors. Unless the real interest rate turns positive, investors should remain optimistic and let the winners continue to run wild.