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On-chain data analysis for the 49th week: The market has a slight increase in holdings, and the market is slowly entering the recovery stage
Summarized by AI
Original title: "Mountains Stop Rivers, Pull Snow to Seek Spring｜WTR 12.5"
Original Source: WatchTower Research Institute
This week in review
This week From November 29th to December 5th, the highest price of rock sugar orange was around $17348, and the lowest price was close to $15984, with a volatility of about 8.5%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 16500, which will have certain support or stress.
Analysis:
1.17000 - 20000 about 1.95 million pieces;
2.12000 ~ 16500 about 2.447 million pieces;
It will not fall below 10000~12000 in the short term The probability is 59%;
The probability of not breaking through 18500-20000 in the short term is 70%< /p>
Important news
Economic News
United States
1. PCE core price index monthly rate 0.2% , lower than the previous value of 0.5%, lower than the expected value of 0.3%, the smallest increase since July this year; the annual rate of 5%, lower than the previous value of 5.1%, in line with the expected 5%.
2. This week, the safe-haven dollar index fell to 104.63, the lowest since June.
3.11 The hourly wages of American workers soared, and the average hourly wages increased by 0.6% to 32.82 US dollars, twice the market expectation of 0.3%, the previous value was revised to 0.5%; a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, exceeding market expectations of 4.6%, and the revised value in October was 5.6%.
a. In November, the growth of non-agricultural employment population did not slow down as expected by the market. There was an increase in October, and the average hourly wage soared more than expected month-on-month, and the labor force participation rate did not rise but fell.
4. The U.S. unemployment rate in November was 3.7%, in line with the expected value of 3.7%, unchanged from the previous value 3.7%, which is still a historical low.
5. U.S. bond yields have fallen by about 20 basis points in a week, continuing last week’s decline momentum.
6. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages this week was 6.49%, a low Peaked at 7.08% on November 10.
7. The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of November 19 reached 1.608 million, higher than the market Expected 1.57 million, the previous value of 1.551 million. Continuing claims rose by 57,000 in the week, the largest in a year.
a. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the week of November 26 in the United States was 225,000. It was 235,000, and the previous value was 240,000.
EU
< br>
1. The European Union agreed on Friday to set the price ceiling of Russian oil at $60 per barrel.
a. The market believes that the $60/barrel ceiling price is intended to limit Russian oil export revenue At the same time, it will not reduce Russia's shipments to the global market.
b. The new mechanism allows the price cap to be revised every two months. From mid-January 2023, the EU will review and revise price ceilings every two months to ensure that any reset price ceilings are at least 5% below average market prices.
2. The PPI in the Eurozone rose by 30.8% year-on-year in October, which was lower than the market expectation of 31.7% , a sharp drop from the previous value of 41.9%; a month-on-month decline of 2.9%.
3. The initial value of the reconciled CPI in the euro zone in November was 10% year-on-year, lower than market expectations of 10.4 %. The initial value of the reconciled CPI in the euro zone fell by 0.1% month-on-month in November, lower than the forecast of 0.2%, the first slowdown in a year and a half.
Other
< br>
1. In the week ended November 30, global equity funds had outflows of US$14.1 billion, of which US stock market outflows at the top.
a. About 2.4 billion US dollars of funds left global bonds, and cash funds inflowed 31.1 billion Dollar-funded, European equity funds posted redemptions for the 42nd consecutive week.
2. On Friday, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) pointed out that the global food price index The month-on-month decrease of 0.1% was the lowest since January this year.
3. In November, OPEC is expected to reduce oil supply by 1.05 million barrels per day compared with October, roughly in line with OPEC+ The scale of the new agreement is the largest monthly drop in oil production since mid-2020.
Encrypted ecological news
1 The monthly supply of .WBTC dropped by 12.44%, and the total supply is back to September 2021.
2. BlockFi has officially filed for bankruptcy reorganization and still holds $256.9 million in cash.
3. Solana Web3 mobile phone Saga is open for pre-order in Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland.
4. Telegram plans to launch an encrypted wallet and DEX (centralized exchange).
5. Data: Encryption fund investment is still dominated by the United States, accounting for 60%, China ranks Fourth, accounting for 6%.
6. Coinbase: Institutional investors increased their holdings of digital assets during the bear market.
7. TP ICAP, the world's largest trading broker, has obtained the British cryptocurrency license and registered as Digital asset provider, in partnership with Fidelity, offers to match orders and execute spot cryptocurrency trades.
August 11, 53,155 Ethers were destroyed on the Ethereum chain, worth $68.6 million.
9. Swiss cryptocurrency bank Seba opens a new office in Hong Kong to promote growth in Asia Pacific.
10. Alibaba Cloud, PlatON and Hashkey fit together to build a Web3 developer platform for Web3 developers provide inclusive backend technology infrastructure.
11. MetaMask has been integrated into the blockchain platform of Sber, the largest bank in Russia.
12. The United States has 45.3% of the Ethereum nodes, ranking first, and the European Ethereum nodes The share accounted for 22.8%, ranking second.
13. The German blockchain industry will raise approximately US$8 billion in 2022, accounting for the global The total amount of blockchain VC financing was 2.4%, and the number of blockchain projects that received financing in Germany reached 220, an increase of 10%.
14. CEO of BlackRock, the world’s top asset manager: Although FTX has many problems, encryption Technology will be very important.
a. It is closely related to future development, and it is believed that the next-generation market or the next-generation securities will realize the token (tokenization).
15. The Brazilian legislature approved the bill regulating the use of Bitcoin, which will take effect after the president signs it.
16. British City Minister Andrew Gritfth: later this year will be "world-leading" Cryptocurrency rules for public consultation.
17. The Government of Punjab, Pakistan launched the "Punjab 3.0" web 3 portal.
18. Hong Kong Financial Secretary: Will launch a new development plan for virtual asset service providers licensing system.
a. Financial intermediaries and banks will be able to provide virtual asset trading services under regulatory conditions , can cooperate with licensed peers from the virtual asset industry, and provide customers with virtual asset trading services under the condition of complying with relevant regulatory conditions.
19. El Salvador has established the National Bitcoin Office (ONBTC).
20. Putin called for the construction of an international settlement solution based on blockchain and digital currency.
a. Over the past few months, Russia has been considering comprehensive encryption regulations, and the more More and more people support the legalization of cross-border encryption payments.
21. MetaMask has been integrated into the blockchain platform of Sber, the largest bank in Russia.
22. US CFTC (US Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Chairman: Bitcoin is the only Cryptocurrency as a commodity
23. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The collapse of FTX is the The industry's Lehman moment, surprised by this.
a. Yellen emphasized the importance of being open to financial innovation, the technology behind cryptocurrencies It is possible to provide faster and cheaper transactions, however faster and cheaper must be powerful enough to provide adequate consumer protection.
24. The Monetary Authority of Singapore ( MAS ), issued the "Payment Services Act license.
Long term insight
Six months to 7 years participant group
Each participant group position
Macro trampling situation
The overall change of chips on the chain
Continuing the data discovery last week, and observing and screening again;
In view of the fact that the activity of addresses over 7 years is not strong, and even many of them may be players who lost coins, so the participants with more than 7 years were screened out;< /p>
This time is mainly for the participants from June to 7 years.
The 3-5 years of participants began to increase their holdings. Participants in the cycle are calmly increasing their bargaining chips; on the other hand, the reduction rate of participants in half a year to one year has increased.
According to the above situation, the size of participants in each time period can be reversely deduced from the changes in the group positions of each participating combination.
The positions of each participant group
After a round of "coin withdrawal movement", participants of different sizes are still actively increasing their holdings. Except for the 1k-10k group, which has slowed down the increase in holdings, other volumes still appear Positive willingness to increase holdings.
The combined force of market holdings is more obvious. The impact may not be significant.
Macro stampede situation
The macro stampede has eased, and the presentation of the betting ratio of real money and silver is more helpful for insight into the real market situation.
In most cases, especially in the macro situation, stepping on the emotional link, for Shaping market confidence is very important.
This is more obvious at the beginning of 2019, the first half of 2020 and the middle of 2021 .
Overall change in chain chips
Of course, the newly added chips on the chain at this stage are not very optimistic, and the overall sell-off The chips are still at a higher level than the newly added chips; however, it can be seen that it has begun to decline slowly.
From a historical perspective, this data sometimes shows a slight lag. Possibly a better fit for the strategy on the right.
Mid-term exploration
Number of valid addresses
Proportion of valid addresses above 1BTC
Proportion of contract positions
Multiple high-weight selling pressure
Total selling pressure
Stable coin circulation
Purchasing power difference
• Giant Whale Exchange Net position
Growth status rating: mild slowdown, at the same time, there are signs of active derivatives< br>
Number of valid addresses
After a period of adjustment, the market has shown signs of slowing down and lingering in effective address growth in the past two days. Due to the weaker growth of new users, there may be a slight slowdown in the pace of current players entering the market.
Proportion of effective addresses above 1BTC
< /p>
Valid addresses above 1 BTC usually represent the proportion of high-quality addresses in the market, and there are currently slight signs of suspension.
Proportion of contract positions
The two sets of data are the proportion of general futures contracts and perpetual contracts relative to futures open interest.
Blue: Proportion of futures open interest;
Red: Permanent
From the data situation, recently, from November 20 It needs to keep rising since then, possibly as derivatives traders start placing bets.
Due to the multiple effect of leverage and the existence of a "forced parity" mechanism, it may lead to Recent price moves have been amplified.
Selling pressure status rating: The release of high-weight selling pressure has slowed down slightly, and the total selling pressure has slowed down< /b>
Multiple times High heavy selling pressure
Multiple high-weight selling pressures show that there are signs of pressure on the market recently, Currently slightly slowed down. Judging from previous review results, the current state of performance is close to the mild sell-off stage that occurs during consolidation.
Switch the perspective and observe the real-time dynamics from the perspective of high-precision total selling pressure.
Total selling pressure
The total selling pressure is currently narrowing and slowing down. There is no large-scale selling pressure in the current market, which may be because the current state is not too much related to the selling pressure situation.
Purchasing power status: USDC has "incremental" traces, and purchasing power still has sufficient stock.
Stable coin circulation
The circulation of USDC has increased in a fluctuating manner, and there are currently traces of a certain amount of incremental funds. The USDT circulation is slowing down and decreasing.
Purchasing power difference
< /p>
The difference in purchasing power shows that there is a relatively sufficient stock of stable coins in the current exchange, and the current participants may prefer to wait and deploy slowly.
Giant whale status rating: sideline
Net position of giant whale trading platform
Giant whales have slowed down their inflows into exchanges in small amounts, and are currently in a lingering stage, with unclear trends and a wait-and-see attitude.
Short term observation
Risk Coefficient of Derivatives
Intentional Trading Ratio of Options
Derivatives Trading Volume
Implicit Volatility of Options
< p>Profit and loss transfer amountNew address and active address
Bingtang Orange Exchange net position
Auntie Exchange net position
< p>High Weight Selling PressureGlobal Purchasing Power Status
Net Stablecoin Exchange Position
Off-chain Exchange Data
Derivatives Rating: Neutral Risk, Sluggish Participants
Risk coefficient of derivatives
The risk of derivatives has changed Small, currently returning to the neutral risk range. There haven't been many extreme risk range swings and changes over the past week either.
Option Intention to Transaction Ratio
Option trading volume and transaction ratio are also slowly declining. Interestingly, put protection for option participants has not improved either.
Derivatives trading volume
The trading volume of futures and options continued to be low, ushering in the lowest trading volume in a week. It may be because the participants believe that the market space is too limited recently, and the enthusiasm for betting has subsided significantly.
Option Implied Volatility
Implied volatility for options shows only a slight uptick in the one-week IV curve. The overall volatility is expected to be low in the medium and long term.
Emotional State Rating: Panic Declines, Stepping into Flat
Profit and loss transfer amount
New address and active address
There are signs of a slight recovery in new addresses and active status. Slowly rising prices have a positive incentive for participants and the overall atmosphere.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The accumulation trend is weak and the selling pressure is also low.
Bingtang Orange trading platform net position
The accumulation status of these two weeks began to slowly decline.
E Tai trading platform net position
The same signs appear in this currency, which may indicate that participants are still hesitant in the face of tail risks and prices of current events. It will take time or a tipping point to turn the situation around.
High weight selling pressure
Fortunately, the selling pressure of higher weight participants is also slowly declining. That is to say, as the event is slowly digested, they may also realize the importance of the current price and fall into a wait-and-see state.
Purchasing power rating: a slight downward trend
Global purchasing power status
The European and American time zones are the main force of the decline, and at the same time suffered the most serious losses. Performance in Asia, while also down, was relatively good.
USDC trading platform net position
The purchasing power of stablecoins still only continues to support the current price, but the current overall support is much lower than the situation of more than 15,000.
USDT trading platform net position
The same is true for USDT
Off-chain transaction data rating: Increased purchase intention below $15,500
Coinbase off-chain data
Overall purchase intention order distribution At $16500, $16200, $15800.
Binance off-chain data
The purchase intention is much stronger than last week, and there are many willing orders at 16000, 15500, 15000, 14500, and 14000 respectively.
This is a relatively good situation for the world's important exchanges.
Bitfinex off-chain data
This exchange is relatively rare, and there are only willing orders at $15,000.
This week's summary
Message Summary:
1. Major investment banks began to ease their attitude towards risky assets, and even Deutsche Bank showed strong bullishness intention.
2. Looking back on the whole year of 2022, the US economy and employment as a whole show a tough state;< /p>
3. As summarized in an October report in this series of reports, the market generally There will be two kinds of bottoms, one of which is the bottom of emotional catharsis.
Sentiment in many institutions is slowly turning positive.
Of course, this may not represent anything and cannot be clear about the future, but it can be filtered out Another condition: the participation of the overall market and the downward joint force state began to decline.
The short-term bad market may be difficult, but it is good in the long-term, and it must be experienced and passed through.
In the credit cycle, the most important of these is productivity, where there is no major discontinuity in productivity When the influence of credit is affected, the leverage efficiency of its credit can be restored slowly. At the same time, with the end of the mid-term elections in the United States, the pressure on Fed Chairman Powell has eased, and the previous high-pressure remarks and policy interest rate regulation may have relatively declined.
On the other hand, treasury bonds should be a very safe and liquid investment product. A product with a supposedly low risk of loss, but the 2022 treasury bond market is doing very badly.
Encountered a major retracement, and even the most extreme retracement is not inferior to the floating of risky assets.
From a long-term perspective, this is very detrimental to the confidence in the bond market; It is foreseeable in the medium and long term that there will be a steady stream of funds that will slowly transfer from the bond market to other markets, and even some of them will be invested in risky assets, encrypted assets, etc.
Whether the next year will be more optimistic remains to be discussed; The redistribution of the market, the expected reallocation, may bring opportunities for structural repair within a certain period of time in the future market.
Encryption end:
Under normal circumstances, things operate in a state of two sides, and the depression and downturn of the market are not all particularly bad things. More competitors can be cleaned out, and with the help of cycle power, it will produce twice the result with half the effort.
The entire industry is now in its infancy, and perhaps most of the arguments are correct, because During the development period of the industry, 90% of the projects will die or become cannon fodder and martyrs.
Only by constantly discovering problems can we improve them better.
Leave short-term capital market volatility pricing aside to see the development of the entire industry and technology; real technology Problems and corrections are often completed at this moment, and the industrial ecology becomes richer and stronger.
If you don’t put aside the cognition of “discontinuous fragments and experimental highlight moments” that are considered to be the eternal and initial state of the market’s future, it is difficult to have a holistic view and understanding of complex environments and events .
Better understand the integrity of "serial drama", whether it is mentality or construction and investment It is a better state and cognition. Putting aside emotions and parts, looking at the problem and the whole will lead to a better decision-making state.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. Among them, the increase rate of participants in 3-5 years has begun to increase, and the participants who have experienced a round of cycles are calmly increasing their chips;
< br>
2. The combined force of increasing holdings in various markets is more obvious;
The current selling power of participants under 3.1 years may not have much impact on the market;
4. The macro stampede has eased, which is extremely important for shaping market confidence;
5. Although the overall on-chain selling and reduction chips are declining at this stage, the new on-chain chips are still not optimistic enough.
Market Setting:< br>
The market currently has a slight increase in holdings; in the long run, the future may Slowly move into the repair phase.
Interim detection on the chain:
1. Effective address growth is in a state of hesitation;
2. High-quality addresses are slightly stagnant;
3. Derivatives show signs of activity and may Enlarge the price range;
4. Multiple high-weight selling pressure: there is a certain degree of release at this stage , currently slowing down slightly;
5. Total selling pressure: it is slowly shrinking recently;
6. There is still sufficient purchasing power in the exchange, USDC has incremental traces
7. The giant whale is a little on the sidelines.
Market setting:
Slow recovery, there is still sufficient purchasing power inside the exchange, and traces of USDC inflow can be seen, the selling pressure has slowed down, and the growth is also slightly with slow down.
On-chain short-term observation:
1. The risk of derivatives is currently hovering in neutral, and there are not many swings in extreme situations;
2. The enthusiasm of derivatives participants also began to drop sharply, and the trading volume reached a new low in a week;
3. The participants of the same option did not increase the strategy of put protection;
4. Panic stampede and selling pressure have been repaired for nearly a month, and have reached a low level within 2 months;
5. High-quality selling pressure also continues to decline and is at a low level;
6. The accumulation trend has also begun to slow down significantly, and there has been no sign of a large accumulation of coins within two weeks;
7. The European and American time zones have the most intense decline in purchasing power;
< /p>
8. The support for the purchasing power of stablecoins has also slowly declined within two weeks;
10. Short-term The probability of falling within 12000~10000 is 59%; The probability of 18,500 to 20,000 is 65%.
Market setting:
Neutral, no direction tilt; the participant is in hesitation and needs time or events to slowly reverse the current situation.
Short-term strategy suggestion: The current possible operation space is small, and trend strategy is not recommended.
Risk Warning:
The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.
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