Original title: "At the crossroads of the market, what are the bases for the various "masters" to be bullish or bearish? "

Original author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

There are only a few days left before the fourth halving of Bitcoin, but the top "masters" have completely different predictions for the future market.

The bulls generally believe that the darkest moment has passed; the CPI's unexpected performance and the suspension of interest rate cuts cannot interrupt the upward trend of Bitcoin; the main reason for the adjustment in the past few days is that liquidity was temporarily withdrawn due to the arrival of tax filing day; while the air force believes that unexpected and continuous inflation has put risk assets on the verge of a major adjustment...

In the following, we will review the seed players and their main remarks on both the bulls and bears, hoping to help everyone make the right moves in the future market.

The Four Bulls: GCR, Arthur Hayes, Chris Burniske, Matt Hougan

GCR: Hold on to the spot, don’t surrender!

After the early morning plunge on April 14, legendary trader GCR (who once shorted DOGE, SHIBA, and LUNA at the top) who had not posted trading comments on social media for a long time publicly called for more. The dynamic has now been read nearly 9 million times on X, and the number of likes has reached 55,000 times.

GCR said: "If your position is insufficient, this will be a good opportunity for you to expand your position in tokens with stronger consensus. If you have already fully invested, then stick to it, stick to your spot position, and don't surrender. Someone once said that the essence of liquidation is to forcibly transfer wealth from traders who need leverage to wealthy spot holders. I have retired from social media, but I don't want to see my brothers being eliminated when the future is still so bright."

Arthur Hayes: The bottom has arrived, let's go!

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has long been one of the most influential "order-leading gods" in the market. Earlier this month, Arthur predicted that the U.S. annual tax return (April 15 is the tax deadline) will drain market liquidity from April 15 to May 1, and the Fed's continued balance sheet reduction and Bitcoin's expected halving event on April 20 may lead to short-term oversold, and the market may be extremely weak. However, starting from May 1, as the Fed slows down the pace of balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury uses funds to stimulate the market, a new round of crypto bull market is expected to begin.

With the sharp decline in the past few days, Arthur also changed his mind and started to call for more.

On April 15, Arthur posted on the X platform: "The bottom has been reached, start to charge!"

On April 16, Arthur said again: "Until the weekend before the US tax filing deadline on April 15, the trend of Bitcoin and gold remained synchronized. Also on this weekend, the situation in Israel and Iran escalated, and the price of Bitcoin plummeted, while gold happened to be closed. On Monday this week, gold did not fluctuate after opening, and Bitcoin fell again. The general trend of Bitcoin still works, people just need to pay taxes."

Chris Burniske: How dare you liquidate before the halving? ? ?

Chris Burniske, former head of ARK Invest crypto and current partner of Placeholder VC, had previously accurately predicted that the market would experience a significant correction after the ETF was approved.

After this round of decline, Burniske has also repeatedly called for more.

This morning, Burniske posted: "There is significant panic in the market, and prices have stood firm in a reasonable range, and excessive volatility has been eliminated, which will be the basis for the eventual price increase."

After that, Burniske also forwarded a dynamic about "You actually liquidated 4 days before the halving", and accompanied it with a picture of a whale swallowing, or implying that the giant whale is eating up the chips sold by retail investors at a low price.

Matt Hougan: Interest rates are nothing to worry about!

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan (left in the picture below) has always been a representative of Bitcoin "dead bulls" active in the social media field.

When Bitcoin fell last week due to unexpected CPI and delayed expectations of interest rate cuts, Hougan said, "I don't think that higher-than-expected CPI will interrupt Bitcoin's upward trend. Whether the Fed cuts interest rates in June is not a long-term driver of Bitcoin prices, but only a marginal factor. ETF flows and growing deficit issues are more important, and these data are good for Bitcoin."

Reverse short: 10x Research

Compared to the long side, there are relatively few well-known players on the short side. Originally, Arthur, who was short in April, would be the best representative, but as Arthur turned bullish, the short side urgently needs a new banner.

This morning, 10x Research, a well-known institution that was still calling for orders to see 80,000 last week, suddenly said that "all positions had been cleared last night", and this dynamic also triggered widespread discussion on social media.

In explaining the logic of clearing positions, 10x Research said the main reasons are:

1. We are increasingly worried that risk assets (stocks and cryptocurrencies) are in a critical state and may experience a large price correction. The main trigger is unexpected persistent inflation, current bond market forecasts show less than three rate cuts, and with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 4.50%, we may have reached an important turning point for risk assets.

2. It must be understood that trading is a continuous game of opportunity. The key to trading is to continuously analyze the market and find opportunities when the time is right. Sometimes we advocate strategies that expand risk (to gain more), while at other times, preserving capital is the top priority, which allows you to seize opportunities when the risk level is lower.

3. … (10x Research’s report does have a third point, but if you want to read the third point and more complete content, the minimum membership fee is $340 a year. I chose to use this $340 to buy at the bottom.)

Risk Warning

Finally, it should be emphasized that the above content is only a summary of the market forecasts of some KOLs who are currently receiving high attention in the market. The forecasts and reasons of the major KOLs in the article are their personal opinions and do not represent the opinions of Odaily Planet Daily.

The investment risk is extremely high. Please do not trust others’ orders easily. Be sure to DYOR before operating.

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