BCA Research: China's economic stimulus measures are not enough to support Bitcoin's bull market

BlockBeats news, October 5, BCA Research believes that the rise in risk appetite may not last because China's latest stimulus measures have failed to produce a significant bullish "credit impulse" as in the past two decades (including 2015). Between 2000 and 2020, when China's real estate market boom was in full swing, it was possible to introduce an exponential credit curve into the real estate and construction boom. But now, due to the lack of alternative destinations for productive uses of credit of the same scale, it will be difficult to generate the same huge credit impulse.

It is reported that the credit impulse refers to the percentage of new credit flows issued through loans and other debt instruments to gross domestic product (GDP). Since the 2008 financial crisis, analysts have been closely watching China's credit impulse as a leading indicator of global economic growth and a rebound in risk appetite. Historically, the rise of this indicator again coincides with the bottoming out of the Bitcoin bear market.

During the last major bullish easing cycle in 2015, the credit shock peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to 15% of GDP. At that time, Chinese stocks, represented by the CSI 300, more than doubled in six months, and Bitcoin bottomed out near $100 before moving higher in a two-year bull run that peaked near $20,000 in December 2017.