Matrixport: Bitcoin Breaks $100,000 Again, Still Focused on Bullish Price Spread Options

BlockBeats News, May 9th, Matrixport shared its weekly market report as follows: Over the past 18 months, global monetary policy has significantly altered the capital flow into digital assets. With interest rates remaining high, traditional investors have begun to reassess their risk allocations, and the Federal Reserve's policy communication has become crucial as a result. The minutes of the November FOMC meeting held on December 7, 2024, shattered the market's expectation of four rate cuts in 2025, lowering the rate cut expectation to two times.

On-chain data has revealed the degree of market differentiation. Bitcoin's market dominance (calculated as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization) has risen from 49% in the early days of the ETF era to the current 64.5%, a level not seen since the 2021 DeFi frenzy. This trend has brought the highest risk-adjusted return among various core indicators of digital assets, reflecting a preference for quality assets.

Retail investor sentiment remains depressed, with trading volumes on CEX and DeFi protocols hitting multi-year lows. Due to the lack of a clear market theme—neither a new disruptive DeFi application nor a significant breakthrough in Layer-2 technology or widespread meme coin frenzy—retail investors are widely choosing to continue observing.

The Northern Hemisphere summer typically exacerbates this trend, as trading activity decreases due to the vacation season. Since December 2024, the discussion volume on meme coins on social media has dropped by over 40%, while Bitcoin-related discussions remain high, reflecting the market's continued interest in Bitcoin as a macro hedge asset. In the absence of significant catalysts, an emotion-driven rally in meme coins is difficult to materialize.

Given that technical, macroeconomic, and market structural factors all adversely affect meme coins, the current most clear tactical stance is to continue maintaining a long position in Bitcoin through spot or perpetual futures and to utilize meme coin perpetual futures as a hedging tool. The funding rate of meme coin perpetual contracts remains low.