Cryptoquant: Bitcoin May Continue Positive Cycle, Closing Its Third Consecutive Bullish Year

BlockBeats News, on June 18, CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo_Alemán published a market analysis stating that on-chain analytics utilize metrics such as MVRV, UTXO value bands, and exchange reserves to interpret blockchain data from both micro and macro perspectives. These tools help us understand on-chain dynamics and guide informed decision-making. However, the approach of continuously seeking micro signals to infer macro trends, while often useful, may sometimes obscure the cyclical forces truly driving Bitcoin's long-term price behavior.

The "Bitcoin Annual Percentage Trend" addresses this issue by showcasing Bitcoin's annual performance since 2011, revealing a consistent cycle: three years of growth followed by one year of consolidation, which aligns with Bitcoin's four-year halving rhythm. The significance of this growth cycle lies in its implications: according to this metric, if Bitcoin maintains the typical momentum of the third year in a cycle, it could grow approximately 120% in 2025. Starting from $93,226, this growth could push the price to $205,097, potentially marking the cycle peak for that year. If this logic holds, 2025 is very likely to close as the third consecutive bullish year, completing another positive cycle. This indicates that we are in the final phase of the current cycle, which carries significant strategic implications for investors aiming to align with Bitcoin's multi-year structural trends. This behavior is also supported by other cyclical indicators, such as Realized Cap, which is projected to reach new all-time highs in 2025. Leveraging the long-term perspective of the "Bitcoin Annual Percentage Trend" helps investors remain composed amid short-term volatility.