QCP Capital: Multiple Reasons Contributing to Current Low Market Volatility, Trade War Restart Enters Countdown

BlockBeats News, June 19th, QCP Capital posted on its official channel stating that on the macro event front, as widely expected by the market, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, the policy committee still maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that short-term inflation expectations remain high and listing tariffs as a key upside risk. Officials reiterated a preference for a wait-and-see strategy to await further clarity on the inflation path.

The market's sensitivity to geopolitical headlines continues to decline, including ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

The countdown to the trade war has begun. As the July 9th deadline for the EU tariff suspension approaches, the U.S. has only reached one agreement among nearly 195 potential trading partners. Negotiations are at an impasse, with leaked information becoming a recurring theme, and the market's response to incremental tariff news is becoming increasingly muted. The following timing points remain crucial:

July 14th: EU plans retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.

August 12th: End of the 90-day U.S.-China tariff truce

August 31st: Expiration of China's long-term tariff exemption for imported goods

These points may trigger temporary downside volatility in risk assets. However, QCP's base scenario remains optimistic: given the intersecting interests of both parties, the U.S.-China trade negotiations are more likely to lead to a stable resolution, providing support for continued upside in risk assets. Currently, the market's risk reversal indicator maintains a negative value (put options premium over call options), reflecting a cautious market stance and expectations of a short-term pullback.