K33: Bitcoin Spot ETF Fund Flow Highly Correlated with Bitcoin Price, Financial Reserve Company Impact Tends to be Neutral

BlockBeats News, June 25th, according to The Block, digital asset brokerage and research firm K33 stated that there is a high correlation between Bitcoin ETF fund inflows and price returns, in stark contrast to some companies that have incorporated Bitcoin into their treasury reserves, whose purchasing behavior often has a market-neutral impact. Vetle Lunde, research director at K33, pointed out in a report on Tuesday that some analysts have begun to question whether ETF fund flows can still impact prices. However, the latest data shows that Bitcoin's price remains closely correlated with ETF inflows, with an R² value as high as 0.80, explaining about 80% of the variation in Bitcoin's returns over the past 30 days.

In contrast, the impact of Bitcoin treasury reserve companies on price is more complex. Lunde noted that the latest data shows a weaker correlation between corporate Bitcoin purchases and market returns. While companies like Strategy still directly impact market demand by purchasing Bitcoin from the market through debt or equity financing, many new entrants have taken a different approach.

Just in the past three months, over 50 new treasury reserve projects have been launched, many of which have obtained Bitcoin through "in-kind share swaps" with large coin holders. For example, SoftBank-backed Twenty One established its 37,230 BTC holding through share swaps with Tether and Bitfinex. This "like-kind exchange" structure is unlikely to create new net buying demand for Bitcoin and may even divert direct purchase funds that might have otherwise entered the market.