Rate Decision Preview: Increasing Voting Divide, Risk of "Three-way Struggle"

BlockBeats News, September 17th, the Fed is divided between hawks and doves, and multiple institutions have made predictions on the interest rate cut:

1. Citibank: It is very likely that three voting members will support a 50 basis point rate cut at this meeting, namely Fed governors Waller, Bowman, and Mester.

2. Morgan Stanley: It is expected that the Fed will decide on a 25 basis point rate cut, but newly appointed Fed governor Mester will hold a different opinion and advocate for a 50 basis point rate cut.

3. JPMorgan Chase: The Fed is expected to decide on a 25 basis point rate cut, but during the voting process, it is expected that 2-3 attendees will dissent and support a 50 basis point rate cut.

4. Rabobank: In this meeting, Milan will undoubtedly join the dissenters Bowman and Waller from July in supporting a rate cut, and may even support a larger 50 basis point cut.

5. Rabobank International: Waller and Bowman may vote to support a larger rate cut, and newly appointed governor Milan by Trump may join this camp, although we doubt he will ultimately vote in favor of a 50 basis point cut.

6. SPI Asset Management: There may be 2 or 3 members within the Fed supporting a 50 basis point rate cut, while the rest support a 25 basis point cut; Powell may change his previous stance and support a 25 basis point cut to counter Trump.

Or there may be three types of voting patterns:

1. Deutsche Bank: At this meeting, within the "dovish" camp, as many as three members may call for a 50 basis point rate cut, while in the "hawkish" camp, one or two people may vote to not cut rates.

2. Wrightson: The Fed meeting may see opposing views, with Waller, Bowman, and Mester possibly advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, while some regional Fed presidents may support a hold.

3. ANZ Bank: The Fed's interest rate decision this time will not be unanimous, with at least one official (Mester) expected to support a 50 basis point cut, while at least another official (Schmidt) may oppose the policy adjustment. (FXStreet)