Real Vision Founder: Bitcoin This Cycle Will See a "Five-Year Cycle," With a High Probability of Peaking Next Year in Q2

BlockBeats News, September 25th, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated in his latest podcast released yesterday that Bitcoin is now mimicking the ISM (Institute for Supply Management index, i.e., the "business cycle"). The crux is: Bitcoin is now following the ISM, and interest rates are also following the same beat.

The U.S. Treasury Department for 2021–22 extended the debt-weighted average maturity from 4 years to 5 years. Therefore, the entire cycle has been artificially extended by one year—the original "four-year cycle" has become a "five-year cycle".

The model indicates the ISM will peak in 2026; liquidity will likely peak earlier, as the second derivative of ISM with liquidity will turn first. "Our speculation is: the real peak will occur in 2026, most likely in Q2."