After the release of US initial jobless claims and similar data, the probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has decreased to 83.4%.

BlockBeats News, September 25th, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, after the release of today's U.S. initial jobless claims and other data, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in October has dropped to 83.4% (down from 91.9% yesterday), while the probability of keeping rates unchanged has risen to 16.6%.

Earlier reports indicated that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20th was 218,000, the lowest since the week ending July 19, 2025, with an expectation of 235,000. The final annualized Q2 core PCE price index in the U.S. was 2.6%, with an expectation of 2.5%. Additionally, the final annualized Q2 real GDP in the U.S. was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.30%.