Glassnode: A sustained market weakness would be a key warning signal of structural weakness. The recent pullback has mainly resulted from local deleveraging rather than a large-scale fund outflow.

BlockBeats News, October 15th, Glassnode posted on social media that under the dual impact of macroeconomic pressure and $19 billion worth of futures liquidation, Bitcoin's surge to $126,000 saw a reversal. With ETF inflows slowing down and market volatility soaring, this round of historical-level leverage liquidation is driving the market into a reset phase.

Analysts state that this pullback is particularly alarming — this is the third time since late August that the price fell below the 0.95 quantile price model ($117,100). This price level accounts for over 5% of the circulating supply (mostly held by top buyers), and breaking below has put them at a loss. The current price has fallen to the range of $108,400 to $117,100, moving away from the earlier euphoric stage. If unable to reclaim the $117,100 level, the market may explore the lower range. Historical data shows that losing this area often triggers a medium to long-term correction. If it continues to stay below $108,400, it will become a key warning signal of structural weakening.

Long-Term Holders (LTH) since July 2025 have been continuously reducing their holdings, further limiting the upside momentum. During this period, LTH's supply has decreased by about 300,000 BTC, indicating that mature investors are steadily taking profits. This persistent selling pressure highlights the risk of demand exhaustion, and the market may enter a consolidation phase. If the selling pressure continues while new demand fails to catch up, we may see periodic pullbacks or localized panic selling before rebalancing.

Notably, during this round of liquidation, spot trading volume surged to a yearly peak. Monitoring through Cumulative Volume Delta Deviation (CVDD), it was observed that the Binance platform faced significant active selling pressure, while Coinbase showed net buying, indicating institutional investors absorbing the sell-off on the U.S.-based trading platforms. The overall CVDD only shows a mild net selling tendency, much weaker than the spot panic selling in late February 2025. This indicates that the recent pullback is mainly driven by local deleveraging rather than mass fund outflows.