Berenstein: Recent Bitcoin Sell-Off Mainly Stemmed from Investors' Concerns About the Four-Year Cycle Peak

BlockBeats News, November 17th, according to The Block, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by about 25% since hitting a new all-time high of around $126,000 on October 6th. According to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein, this marks a short-term pullback rather than the beginning of a major downtrend.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report to clients on Monday that this decline reflects investors' anxiety about the historical four-year cycle pattern, which has seen peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Many investors sold off during the fourth-quarter market softness, believing that 2025 would see a repeat, thus somewhat creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, they believe that the current fundamentals are stronger, indicating that this is more likely a "relatively modest pullback" forming a new local bottom, rather than the 60% to 70% drops seen in historical cycles—thanks to significant absorption by long-term holder supply. The analysis points out that over the last six months, investors holding for at least a year have sold about 340,000 BTC (around $38 billion), while approximately $34 billion has flowed into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, absorbing much of this selling pressure.

Looking ahead, the analysts believe the market is "not like at a cycle peak," but more part of a multi-year trend defined by institutional participation and periodic moderate pullbacks. They are watching whether Bitcoin can establish a bottom around $80,000—a level seen after last year's U.S. presidential election—and believe the current pullback could present an attractive entry opportunity for digital assets and related equities.