Analysis: The probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin in the short term to pay off debt is low, and at this stage, its valuation is relatively more attractive.

BlockBeats News, November 19th, Matrixport released its daily Icon Observation, stating that Strategy remains one of the most representative beneficiaries in this round of the Bitcoin bull market. The market has been concerned that the company may be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to repay debt in the future. Based on the current asset-liability structure and debt maturity distribution, we judge that the probability of "forced Bitcoin selling to repay debt" in the short term is low and is not the main source of risk at the moment.

The most pressured currently are investors who bought in at a high premium. Most of Strategy's financing occurred when the stock price was close to the $474 historical high and the Net Asset Value (NAV) per share was at its peak. As the NAV gradually declines and the premium compresses, the stock price has also retraced from $474 to $207. Investors who entered in the high premium range earlier are facing significant paper losses as a result.

Compared to the current Bitcoin price increase, Strategy's current stock price has significantly retraced from its previous high, making its valuation relatively more attractive, and the expectation of being included in the S&P 500 Index in December still exists. Nevertheless, this round of correction still reminds us: pace and valuation are equally important, and investors need to be more cautious in controlling their entry price and timing.