Analyst: Bitcoin is at a 'Crossroads,' Any New Macro Shock Could Trigger Sharp Volatility

BlockBeats News, November 19th. According to The Block, analysts have stated that the current market situation reflects a "disrupted fund flow pattern" — with short-term holders and Wall Street investors engaging in massive sell-offs, while long-term holding wallets (commonly referred to as "whales") are slowly and steadily accumulating.

BRN Research Director Timothy Misir mentioned that Bitcoin is at a "crossroads," as large holders are increasing their positions, while retail and short-term buyers continue to experience significant losses. Misir pointed out that recently, about 31,800 BTC has been moved to exchanges in a loss state, and the number of wallets holding over 1000 BTC has increased by 2.2% — the fastest pace in four months.

This rotation is occurring against the backdrop of ongoing ETF outflows. Misir believes that the institutional lack of absorption for BTC and ETH is amplifying the impact of the market-wide deleveraging, trapping Bitcoin in a narrow range of around $90,000. Meanwhile, the macro environment is not providing support, but rather volatility in both directions.

Misir from BRN stated that the market is currently in a highly sensitive state, where any new data could trigger a strong reaction. Both rate cuts and delays scenarios have coexisted and been effective in the last six weeks of the year, and any new macroeconomic surprises could quickly change market positions, triggering sharp fluctuations in the crypto market.