BlockBeats News, November 21st, a J.P. Morgan analyst stated that the recent pullback in the crypto market — particularly intensified after Bitcoin broke below the bank's estimated $94,000 production cost/support level — was mainly driven by retail investors selling off Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, rather than by native crypto traders.

“Although in October, the crypto-native investors triggered a market pullback through significant deleveraging (especially in perpetual contracts), this deleveraging in perpetual contracts seems to have stabilized in November,” J.P. Morgan Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team wrote in a report on Wednesday. “Instead, the main force driving the continued crypto market pullback in November is non-crypto investors, especially those retail investors who entered the crypto market through Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.”

The analyst pointed out that so far this month, retail investors have withdrawn approximately $4 billion from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, a scale that has exceeded the historical record net outflows in February. This behavior contrasts sharply with retail flows in the stock market. In November, retail investors have poured around $96 billion into stock ETFs (including leveraged products) — if this pace continues until the end of the month, the total will reach nearly $160 billion, similar to the levels seen in September and October.

They noted that retail investors have previously exhibited similar “divergent behavior”: aggressively buying stocks on one hand, while selling off crypto ETFs in a few select months (only February, March, and the current November this year). This shows that retail investors still consider crypto assets and stocks as two separate baskets of assets, even though both are considered risk assets.

BlockBeats News, November 21st: Chinese crypto analyst Banmuxia stated in a post that "Bitcoin currently has two key support levels for a potential trend reversal, $81,800 and $74,800 (based on Coinbase prices), along with the range between these two prices. If the price drops to $74,800, it is highly likely to mark the bottom of this bear market."

BlockBeats News, November 21st, Goldman Sachs partner John Flood pointed out that the dramatic reversal of the US stock market on Thursday highlighted that Nvidia's outstanding performance did not bring the anticipated "risk-off" signal to traders, but instead prompted them to urgently build defenses to avoid further losses.

The US stock market opened strong on Thursday morning but quickly turned sour. The S&P 500 index surged 1.9% in the first hour of trading, only to reverse into a decline before 1 p.m. local time—a record intraday swing since the market turmoil in April, evaporating over $2 trillion in market value from the day's peak and closing below the 100-day moving average for the first time in months. The VIX fear index jumped above 26.

This violent reversal occurred against the backdrop of Nvidia delivering a historic financial report, driving traders crazy seeking explanations. Various theories emerged: from the mixed signals of the September nonfarm payroll report raising doubts about the Fed's rate-cutting ability, to concerns about overvaluation, to technical developments that may continue to trigger selloffs by momentum funds.

"The market is now full of old scars," Flood wrote in a client report, "the market is extremely focused on hedging 'crowded risks,' and investors have entered a pure profit and loss protection mode."

Goldman Sachs' trading desk observed a surge in short-selling activity in the macro products space, covering trading platform funds, custom baskets, and futures. Flood pointed out that there have been eight cases since 1957 (including Thursday) where the S&P 500 surged over 1% at the open but closed down. The positive side is that after such events, the market has historically shown a good performance, with gains of at least 2.3% the next day and week on average, and an average increase of 4.7% in the following month. "These reversal events will prompt investors to re-examine their risk exposure," Flood concluded. (Jin10)

BlockBeats News, November 21st. After Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time in nearly 7 months, it has once again continued to decline for multiple days without showing any signs of recovery. When will the downtrend stop, and at what price range will the ultimate bottom be reached? BlockBeats has compiled the following key analysis points before and after this round of decline:

Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske stated that the characteristics of a market top have emerged. He plans to re-enter Bitcoin at $75,000 or lower. The market has experienced a lasting impact from the sharp drop on October 11th, making it difficult to quickly generate sustained buying pressure. The monthly charts of BTC and ETH show some cracks but are still within the "top range." Meanwhile, the decline in MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price, frequent warning signals in the gold and credit markets, indicate that a broader asset adjustment is imminent.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin may first dip to $80,000 to $85,000 before rising to $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year. In his latest blog post, he stated, "Bitcoin dropped from $125,000 to around $90,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes are still hovering at historic highs, leading me to believe that a credit event may be brewing. If a more widespread risk market collapse occurs, with the Fed and the Treasury Department accelerating money printing, Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 to $250,000 by year-end."

Chinese crypto analyst Banmuxia stated that Bitcoin may first fall to $94,500 before entering a complex ranging market, with the ultimate bottom around $84,000. "This is likely to be a complex sideways adjustment. Currently, it may experience a slight decline to around $94,500, then likely enter an exceptionally complex ranging market, with a rebound even reaching above $116,000, then slowly drop to the $84,000 and below 6-8% range."

Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine, the first Ethereum hodling institution, mentioned that it will take 6 to 8 weeks to repair the impact on the market caused by liquidity gaps among market makers, which may alleviate after Thanksgiving (November 27th). The pain is short-term and will not change ETH's supercycle (i.e., Wall Street building its ecosystem on the blockchain).

Yi Lihua, Founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), said, "We believe the current position is the best spot for spot bottom fishing, and we are optimistic about the subsequent market. When others panic, be greedy. In the world of cryptocurrency, one day is like ten years in the mortal realm. In fact, from the peak to now, it has only been a little over a month. However, when the bad news is exhausted, buying is a better choice than selling."

Bloomberg Businessweek's Person of the Year, two-time China's Most Influential Economist Hong Hao, expressed in a post on Xiaohongshu that Bitcoin had dropped to $92,000 and may only find meaningful support after falling to the $70,000 range.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio recently stated that he has started to take a bullish view and has added to his ETH and SOL long positions. "Increased my long positions in ETH and SOL. The oscillators have clearly returned to the oversold zone, and I believe it is time to start adding back risk exposure to this market."

BlockBeats News, November 21st, Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao reiterated his view, stating, "The next bear market (whenever it comes) will be worse than what most people here expect. Right now, there is a large group of 'dumb money' who know nothing about crypto buying spot and ETF. This situation will never end well."

Market may need another 50% deep retracement to 'wash out' the positions held by these people so that the market can rebuild a solid foundation and continue its super cycle."

Placeholder Partner Chris Burniske also expressed a similar view, stating, "The era of selling the top data has just begun. Just as it has risen all the way, now it will fall all the way."

BlockBeats News, November 21st, according to OnchainLens monitoring, the whale address that "previously borrowed coins to short 66,000 ETH" once again bought $1.6277 billion worth of ETH from Binance and continued to deposit it into Aave V3.

Just 5 days ago, the entity had deposited 70,000 ETH (worth $2.2272 billion) into Binance. Currently, it holds a total of 432,718 ETH, valued at approximately $1.23 billion based on market price.

BlockBeats News, November 21st, Financial Market Stability Concerns, including the risk of a sharp decline in asset prices, are becoming a new theme for Federal Reserve officials when discussing the timing of a rate cut or whether to cut rates at all. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook outlined a series of financial system risks, including the rapid growth of the private credit market, hedge fund trading in the government bond market, and the use of generative artificial intelligence in algorithmic trading. Cook also suggested that she would not be surprised by a collapse in asset prices that are at historically high levels.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hamack reiterated her opposition to further rate cuts, citing persistently high inflation and stating that she believes accommodative financial conditions are another reason to resist cutting rates.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Thursday that the Fed needs to be cautious when considering further rate cuts.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee expressed concerns about another rate cut in December. "Inflation progress seems to have stalled, and if anything, has received a warning of moving in the wrong direction," Goolsbee said. "This makes me a little nervous."

BlockBeats News, November 21st, U.S. stocks closed on Thursday, with the Dow preliminarily down 0.84%, the S&P 500 down 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.15%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 3.1%, rising as much as 5% intraday.

On the cryptocurrency front, Bitcoin fell to a low of $86,100 at 3:00 this morning, and has since made a small rebound to $87,200; Ethereum fell below $2,800 at one point, and has now slightly recovered to $2,850.

Recent large-scale outflows from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, as well as the soft retreat of U.S. stocks, have all contributed to the downturn in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin mostly declines during the U.S. stock market's opening hours, followed by a rebound and recovery during the Asian session, highlighting selling pressure from the U.S.

At the same time, the market no longer expects a rate cut by the Fed in December. Strong job numbers have reduced the risk of rising unemployment, with a 39.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December.