Continue Capital Horse: Talk about Profile NFT

Original title: "Talk about Avatar NFT"

Mark Ma is co-founder of Continue Capital

It is difficult to update the cognitive logic without learning the basic, now the investment system is very fragmented, and Crypto is also in a variety of fragmentation, we still only have more than 100 million people to play, you can't keep up, until when a billion players, you will find the same as the current stock market, get down to business.

I remember very well last year when DeFi was in the heat of the day and it was hard for me to understand it, but the recent attitude of the market towards the NFT, according to the stock market, reminds one of the changing headline of a newspaper seven days after Napoleon's escape from The island of Elba: "On the first day, On the third the usurper entered Grenoble; on the fourth Bonaparte took Lyon; on the fifth Napoleon approached Fontainebleau; and on the sixth the emperor arrived in Paris." Just a few months of market cognition and subjective mentality of investors to adjust a lot.

Let's start with a game valuation that's easy to understand, using top player AXIE as an example. AXIE is like a sharp sword of NFT, rising instantly at the end of qingping. NFT Avatars avatar project is the focus of cognitive separation. AXIE has flowing revenue and millions of users who live every day are profitable. All that remains is a matter of market space and a moat. Market space we refer to the Internet game companies, look at the 2020 game company revenue:

The head effect is significant, which is basically the monopoly of Tencent and netease. In 2020, the revenue of Honor of Kings is 2.5 billion DOLLARS, and the gross profit rate of the game is basically above 50%. That is to say, the single top game may be 1.5 billion dollars in profit at present, and this can not be achieved in a short time. Moutai made a net profit of $7 billion in 2020, Tencent Holdings (not just gaming) made a net profit of $25 billion, and Apple made a net profit of $57.5 billion. AXIE currently has a market cap of $20 billion. The market cap is determined by earnings and valuation, so how much room can be left depends on how you give PE and whether the subsequent earnings can be increased again.

Moat problem is relatively simple, look at many unsustainable game products, look at the game company revenue median and head gap can know, to do a good game, it will be difficult to maintain a good game, how to use the form of Crypto retain users this is every P2E model of the game project should think about the problem.

So how does avatar generate revenue? Or is there a pattern to follow? The basic logic of investing is the same, so I've always been skeptical of anything that doesn't generate cash flow. There are so many different games and so many pictures. It's easy to release but hard to maintain. It's hard to understand the moat of the head project or where the irrefunsibility lies. I've also gone through some narrative (CX) logic, but I can't convince myself.

First, reservoir support. We all know that the outbreak of water to go back, but when how to harvest all the focus of the game, can only say that the federal reserve on this issue shows a high level of PUA technology, time and time again the Wolf to the shrinkage rates table test market and has been delayed again and again not to perform, this gives the market plenty of preparation and expectations in my heart, The U.S. stock market has also shown extreme flexibility and has repeatedly reached new highs, and the Federal Reserve has also demonstrated extremely high expectations management level, so the money must be the main reason.

With the continuous issuance of money, different carriers are needed to carry so many overissued fiat money. There will always be a place to flow to, and many reservoirs will be formed. Land and real estate is a super reservoir, the stock market is a big reservoir, and art collection is also one of them. Even a small overflow from the sea is enough to cause small lakes and rivers to overflow. There is simply too much money in the market, and the closing of A16Z to raise money and quickly invest in tier 1 projects shows how urgent it is to get it out. Water and inflation coexist, water and the United States stock market cattle coexist, water and the strong dollar coexist, water and Crypto cattle coexist, too cut off, do not say that our cognition is split, a bunch of stock market fund managers are experiencing self-remodeling.

Second, the composition of knowledge reserve of different groups. Personally, I am inclined to believe that the people who are the first to contact with bitether are some geeks or those who have a strong accumulation of computer cryptography. The same is basically true of the mainstream public chain when it develops to the present. The second wave of DeFi as Alpha growth market is dominated by people with contract and financial background. Development to now, the overall Crypto $2W billion level, we see a lot of WEB3 opportunities, some advantages began to have the Internet art sports game cultural background of people tilt. If you're not interested in games or playing games in the first place, it's hard to get into the P2E model in the first place, and if you're not interested in art, it's hard to know who Beeple is, let alone understand or even work on Everydays, which took 14 years to create: "The First 5000 Days" sold for $69.34 million at Christie's.

Third, the hierarchy of needs. It is also easy to understand maslow's demand theory, the economic foundation determines the superstructure, what economic level, what level of cultural needs will be derived. When granaries are sufficient, we know etiquette; when food and clothing are sufficient, we know honor and dishonor; when gold is flourishing in turbulent times, calligraphy and painting; now the market investment risk preference is so high, many cultural social needs need a display window.

Finally, the cognitive update is over, how do we guide the practice? The most unbearable thing in the stock market is to talk all the time. You are not a stock analyst or an analyst. The ultimate goal is to fall on the net value. I'm sure a lot of people are like me. They play a game like Honor of Kings occasionally, but find it hard to find the time to follow up on a variety of games. They have their own hobbies, but it's hard to understand some art works. Take a dazzling head as a project, a painting as a Token, so that the market value of the issue is easy to statistics.

For example, 0N1 Force project, the issue price is 0.077ETH, the total amount is about 7777, and the initial market value is about 600ETH, that is, 200W USD. According to the introduction of 0N1 Force, "0N1 is based on the Japanese manga theme creation style. During the pre-sale stage, In the Snuck -PEek phase, most projects will advertise the best looking rare ones, but 0N1 will only post pictures of the normal ones, including those from the website. When the results were officially revealed, the new mask, haircut and skin exploded, sparking a new round of discussion and spontaneous transmission."

Another example is maoNFT, with a total of 5000 ipo price of 0.08ETH, that is, 130W USD issuance market value. Just give it to other Crypto projects, do you have the opportunity to participate in this valuation?

Another example is the Riverside Scene at Qingming Festival. 10,000 copies are issued, the issue price is 0.04ETH, and the market value is about 130W US dollars. "China Construction team is the largest minecraft architecture creation team in Asia. Among them, THE 3D printed model of the Three Halls of the Forbidden City was invited to be exhibited in the Palace Museum, and became the no.1 trending search index on Baidu on that day. It also shows that China Construction has unique influence in the MC circle. Currently, China Construction has 750,000 fans on station B, and its works have been broadcast more than 30 million times." This valuation you have a chance not to participate in?

After the secondary transaction, the unit Price of each Token is different. The market value is multiplied by Floor Price by the issued quantity. Therefore, this market value is definitely not the market value in the strict sense, but actually the minimum market value of the project.

There is no data on CryptoPunks, but I did not calculate it carefully. However, according to the Top4 BAYC form, the market value is about 250,000 ETH, that is, about 800 million US dollars. It has already moved to unicorn. 1 billion /5 billion /10 billion dollars is basically the cut-off point for each track. Judging from the current market situation and the capacity of each track's reservoir, there is still room for growth, which gives us a very important stage guide.

Out the most important parameters, the other is to see if the team good, holding the number is numerous, the stones to say your monkeys dogs and cats and other specific forms, too much too much, and I'm sorry, many of them really hard to agree, this how unified art appreciation level, so the question comes, this affect our participation? Does not affect; Does this need to be researched specifically within each project? It doesn't have to be simple (of course there are a lot of benefits to your understanding of the project if you study it in depth). It will all come down to market value and users.

Finally, NFT publishing logic and trading logic is very clear, configure the corresponding public chain publishing platform and Opensea, Rari similar NFT trading platform is no problem, Fractional can also be no brush.

There are no unsold stocks, only unsold prices. Don't be like me to encrypt the cat for a long time, put the state of mind, don't care too much, the water temperature is not hot, you know the water, the shore is unable to feel, the emphasis is on participation, enjoy it.

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