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Data Analysis Moonbirds: Factors Behind Soaring Floor Prices

2022-04-22 16:47

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Original title: "Data Analysis Moonbirds: Factors Behind Soaring Floor Prices"

Original Source: NFTGo

Key Takeaway

· From April 16th to 18th, the trading volume of Moonbirds accounted for 25% of the entire NFT trading market. At the same time, with the rapid rise in the price of Moonbirds, the rate of pending orders was good, and the participation of giant whales was high.

· At present, Pass+PFP projects are becoming a new trend, and projects can consolidate the floor price by creating a diamond hand mechanism. In the future, the stratification of the NFT market will become more obvious.

· As of April 19, the average number of positions held by a single address is 1.5 Moonbirds, with a high degree of distribution. Among them, 5 of the top 10 positions are giant whales.

·The case of the leading project side "reducing the barriers to entry of the community to obtain more users to seize the market", plus pledge, incubation and other stages The way to play is to be able to grasp the rhythm of the market, so as to experience periodic rises.

Moonbirds trade surge

Compared with the previous week, the trading volume of the NFT market has rebounded greatly in the past two days.

NFT trading volume trend in the last two weeks;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.18

April 16, the day Moonbirds was released, the transaction volume of the project accounted for nearly half of the total transaction volume of the NFT market. Numbers still account for one-fifth of the entire NFT market transaction volume.

Moonbirds transaction volume and NFT Total transaction volume comparison chart;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.18

At the same time, Moonbirds broke the NFT single-day trading volume record. It was only released for three days, and its trading volume has far exceeded the trading volume of a single blue-chip NFT within seven days. As of the date of publication, Moonbirds' market value ranking has risen to ninth. Regardless of project background or market performance, Moonbirds can be regarded as a phenomenon-level new blue chip for the time being.

Moonbirds Project Analysis: Creating the Diamond Hand Mechanism

As of April 19, the number of wallets held is 6634, and the distribution of NFT is relatively high. Each address only holds 1.5 Moonbirds on average. Among them, 5 of the top 10 holdings were marked as giant whales.

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

Judging from the holder trend chart, giant whales play a role in promoting the price rise of Moonbirds. We can see that since the end of the sale on April 16, the number of NFT holders has declined slightly, but the number of giant whales has been growing.

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Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

From the perspective of transaction data, since the end of the Moonbirds sale, 92.8% of people have not sold within 24H, the number of holders has entered a stable trend, and the number of traders has decreased exponentially. These data show that the purpose of the vast majority of buyers is to hold rather than sell directly.

Moonbirds holders reached consensus more quickly, this behavior is reflected in the figure below, Moonbirds liquidity and trading volume also fluctuated rapidly from post-launch to stable. Compared with other projects issued at the same time in the picture on the right, in the curve reflecting transactions and flows, the fluctuation time is longer than that of Moonbirds, and the range is also larger, indicating that it takes longer for the project holders to reach a consensus than Moonbirds.

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Transaction flow trend chart (Moonbirds on the left);

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

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Data on the chain;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

It can be seen from the position situation that most people choose to continue to hold rather than sell immediately, especially considering that the cost of mint reaches 2.5E, it can be seen that there is a strong consensus among holders. To a certain extent, the high mint cost of Moonbirds is also a "screening" for holders, and the Nesting model also provides holders with a reason for long-term holding.

Moonbirds has soared from the mint price of 2.5E to around 17E. According to the user portrait indicators, the PnL of the highest-yielding wallet has reached $1,201,686.11 in just a few days. Among all the Moonbirds that have been traded, the NFT that has achieved the highest profit is #7473, which has brought 60E profits to the trader.

Moonbirds highest income user portrait;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

The top ten most profitable Moonbirds;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

It’s worth mentioning that Proof.xyz COO Ryan Carson has been trying to keep Moonbirds going strong through some mechanics.

Some people point out that in this way, people lose the possibility of manipulating the floor price. The fact is that Moonbirds is creating a diamond hand mechanism that slowly transforms NFTs from profit-making tools into symbols of identity and belief. Although people who own WL can quickly benefit from Flip NFT, the project party believes that they should become early believers and long-term holders of the project. Perhaps, the new mechanism in Moonbirds will push the NFT ecosystem to slowly mature from the hype stage. In the near future, the market may look for new ways to lock up NFTs of early investors to prevent a quick flip.

Driver Value of PROOF Collective

One of the supporting values behind Moonbirds is mentioned, most relevantly the PROOF Collective. Based on the official Twitter of Moonbirds, after conveying its first project information to the NFT market on March 19, the official tweet immediately retweeted the associated Twitter of Kevin Rose, the founder of the PROOF Collective community, on the 25th. Released the key follow-up information of the Moonbirds project: the final date of casting is set on April 16, the casting day will take the Dutch auction method and last for 6 hours (starting at 2.5E), Moonbirds holders will unlock:

· PROOF community internal channel authority

· PROOF community subsequent air investment qualifications

Second Creation Qualification of Moonbirds IP Early Bird Eligibility and Discounts in PROOF Community Benefits

· PROOF Collective holders automatically get two

· Moonbirds Free Minting

< blockquote style="text-align: center;">PROOF Collective's market capitalization gain before Moonbirds launch;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

According to the figure below, the floor price of PROOF Collective experienced a period of obvious trading sideways after the beginning of February and remained at around 30ETH. After Moonbirds’ official Twitter announced the conclusive PROOF cooperation information to the market on the 21st, after only about 2 days of peace, the market’s buying response began to appear on March 23rd. During the following two-week peak trading period, a total of 9 giant whale addresses purchased PROOF and took the initiative to promote and publicize the PROOF community on Twitter. The increase in the corresponding PROOF market value can also show the confidence of buyers in the Moonbirds PFP project, and finally reached the floor price of 85ETH before Moonbirds confirmed its release date.

It can be seen that traders and whales who have paid attention in advance have already shifted their attention to the linkage information between Moonbirds and the PROOF community. When the two parties officially confirm the relationship Immediately after that, transfer to the purchase stage and wait patiently for the increase in the market value of the PROOF Pass.

PROOF Collective floor price change;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

"PASS+PFP" projects may become a new trend

"Shovel" projects generally mean that the project party will issue the first generation of NFT first, and when releasing subsequent NFTs, the first generation of NFT will be given Holders have priority rights and interests. At this time, the first generation of NFT is called "shovel". For example, the proof collective & moonbirds Pass+PFP mode is a common "shovel" combination.

The PROOF x Moonbirds linkage system has successfully ignited the recent market explosion. The NFT market share occupied by "shovel" projects is slowly expanding. Haus is based on After successfully incubating the Muri and Niwa projects, the price has climbed from the bottom floor in early January to about 1.2ETH. The sideways period in the data shows that the value of its PASS has gradually been recognized by the market.

hausphases by Haus floor price changes;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

In addition, Project Nanopass, 0xstudio, Crypto Package Goods, Quantum Keys and other projects have also announced their mint pass empowerment for subsequent incubation projects to pass through the casting qualification. The establishment of such a project ecology and system may greatly increase the linkage between projects in the NFT market in the future, thereby reducing the risk trend of most projects gradually returning to zero.

The "shovel" phenomenon may make the stratification of NFT projects more obvious

When the market is in a downturn, the projects made by a strong and endorsed team can seize the stock market more quickly, not only can introduce funds from outside the market, but also Can continuously attract users from other projects.

BAYC historical price trend;

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

For established blue-chip NFTs with a solid position, there is little room for price decline. This is because after a long cycle, the price trends of these projects are clearer, and their support levels have been tested more firmly (as shown in the BAYC trend), so people are willing to buy projects such as BAYC at low prices in a bear market. And for young projects that may be about to become new blue chips, they will also be temporarily impacted by the sudden explosion of new projects. When the market volume is low, the mutual flow of stock funds will lead to more brutal survival of the fittest for project parties.

Such survival of the fittest is reflected in the specific actions of sub-blue-chip NFT projects. For example, Azuki uses the ERC1155 protocol to divide NFT into smaller NFT fragments to Increase liquidity, specific event: Azuki#40 was dismantled into many Bobu fragments for secondary sale, causing the market value of Azuki to increase.

The market value is linked (Bobu on the top and Azuki on the bottom);

Data source NFTGo.io, 2022.4.19

For another example, Moonbirds this time is still an additional project of the well-known project PROOF Collective. It continues the path of PROOF Collective in NFT empowerment, team and even contract code, so Moonbirds also feeds back PROOF Collective's market capitalization.

The above-mentioned top project parties have "reduced the barriers to community entry to obtain more users to seize the market" cases, plus various staged methods such as pledge and incubation, Be able to grasp the rhythm of the market, so as to experience cyclical rises. However, due to the lack of technical support and previous projects as endorsements, it is difficult for general teams to complete operations such as secondary project issuance and NFT fragmented sales to improve project continuity and liquidity, and it is easier to "die" in a bull-bear rotation.

Conclusion

The emergence of Moonbirds has brought new blood to the NFT market, which is short of hot spots recently, and at the same time, this upsurge has also brought us our understanding of the new paradigm of subsequent NFT issuance Thinking: The "shovel" model represented by Pass+PFP may be becoming a new trend, and this trend may also make the head resource effect and community drive of the NFT world more obvious.