"Fortune" Interview with SBF: For the encryption industry, the macro environment is a bigger variable

22-08-04 12:36

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Original source: FTX

American business magazine Fortune interviewed SBF on August 2, saying "The next Buffett " as the title of the interview, and put SBF on the cover of Fortune, which symbolizes that FTX has become the most influential encryption company in the world, and SBF is a representative of the industry.

The following is the content of the interview:

Afro-headed Otaku + White Knight

"Fortune" described SBF as a nice, unkempt afro-headed otaku, interested in LOL (League of Legends) and fidget spinners, the above characteristics make him look a little bit Neither looks like the most powerful person in the crypto industry. However, under the appearance of an otaku, SBF founded Alameda Research, the most successful encrypted quantification company, and FTX, the encrypted derivatives trading platform known as the "best in history".

In addition to being an encryption billionaire (worth about 11.5 billion US dollars), SBF has also recently acquired a new identity: the white knight of the encryption industry (white knight) , Rescued some crypto start-ups in crisis of liquidation.

Liquidation is positive, BTC may fall to $10,000

SBF admitted that although the forecast The bear market is coming, but I didn't expect it to be in the form of a large-scale liquidation, and I didn't expect it to be this bad. Nonetheless, he believes that two-thirds of the reason why the crypto market has fallen so much is because of the overall global economy, and another third is the problem of the crypto market itself.

“The worst is over, of course there may be other reckonings, but they won’t be as bad as before. It is a healthy reshuffle.

We may rethink the way of asset valuation and become more down-to-earth.”

Although it feels that the worst is over, SBF believes that the overall economy is a bigger variable.

He predicts that if the Nasdaq index falls 25% and the Fed raises interest rates to 7%, the world may experience about two and a half years of recession. decline.

Bitcoin could drop to roughly $10,000 to $15,000 if that happens. In addition, there may be a new round of reckoning.

Others are fearful and I am greedy?

As we all know, SBF has recently invested in many struggling companies, such as BlockFi and Voyager Digital. For these investments, Fortune believes that this is practicing the famous saying of Warren Buffett: I am greedy when others are fearful.

SBF also explained his strategy for acquiring shares.

The first consideration is whether the users of those companies can get their assets back, and then whether this transaction can prevent serial liquidation. The last thing is whether FTX can have some "good feedback" in these transactions.

“Our task is not to make amazing acquisitions. The logic here is to make some reasonable deals, even deals that are a bit bad but we can afford.”

An unnamed senior industry person told Fortune that SBF's generosity has allowed him to get many things, including a lot of debts.

In addition to hoping that the future will indeed be as the unnamed person said, SBF also explained the reason for its generosity: trust.

Lack of trust is a huge transaction cost, a lesson SBF learned when it first started doing business.

“A large part of it is trust. When I traded before, I really didn’t want to have to worry about whether the other party would use 20 kinds of me behind my back. If there is a lack of trust between the two parties, then the deal will not work, right?"

So, SBF will set Set a standard, cooperate in a reasonable way, and show the other party that FTX does not want to make small moves behind the scenes.

"Think about things from the perspective that is beneficial to both parties, and then we can start thinking about how to share the cake together."

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Atypical crypto heroes

The crypto community usually likes to embrace heroes, such as Satoshi Nakamoto, or Binance Founder CZ.

Although SBF seems to be an object of worship in the crypto community, he has made some heroes in the currency circle (the original text is Crypto bro) things like donating to Biden politically in the 2020 election.

Fortune commented that SBF is now the leader of the encryption community, but it may also cause dissatisfaction among some encryption believers.

Compared to those heroes in the currency circle who entered the blockchain industry with the reason of "changing the world" and "overthrowing the government", SBF entered the currency circle purely because of the Here comes the chance to make money. And altruism is about making as much money as possible to give back to society.

Fortune believes that SBF is different from many people in the encryption community. They do not have luxury consumption such as yachts, sports cars, and parties. Instead, because they believe in altruism, they promise to donate a lot part of the property.

“I will say this: I will do the right thing for people who really believe in this industry. I believe in blockchain because the technology is really Useful and make the world a better place in concrete ways.

I think I am an example of people who believe in this industry, even though they There are different perspectives on the industry."

Will the world view of the encryption community lead to more chaos in the world?

The next question is a bit serious, but also a bit philosophical.

Fortune believes that the world is on fire right now, the rise of authoritarianism, the climate crisis, etc., so some form of collectivism is needed at this time (collectivism), that is, everyone needs to consider the interests of the whole and make decisions that are beneficial to the whole.

But the encryption community happens to be liberal and individualistic oriented towards personal interests.

Fortune begs the question: Is it possible that the rise of crypto (currency) will lead to a decline in civil order?

SBF thinks this question is a bit odd. He believes that both collectivism and individualism can resist authoritarianism. Collectivism will consider the best interests of the group and resist authoritarianism, while the individualism represented by cryptocurrency hates authoritarianism from the bottom of its heart, which also resists authoritarianism in a certain way.

SBF believes that a large part of the problems of the modern world comes from bullying and trampling other groups, which is what the crypto community hates. But at the same time, we also need to participate and face the problems of this world together.

“You have to be involved, cryptocurrencies may be the solution to some of the problems, but not all of them. It is unlikely that a single tool will solve all problems. "

Can Bitcoin reach $100,000 within two years?

SBF finally analyzed the future prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum as requested by Fortune.

SBF believes that Ethereum is difficult to predict, and with the upcoming merger, Ethereum will fluctuate more violently, but he is not sure in which direction.

Compared with Ethereum, Bitcoin is easier to predict, but the main premise is that the overall economy will not get worse.

SBF believes that Bitcoin will gradually recover from the big liquidation, and the end of the liquidation is a big plus.

In addition, the regulatory framework of Bitcoin has gradually become clear, which is a bullish external impact. So if there is more profit in the regulation next year, with luck, Bitcoin can really reach $100,000.