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On-chain data analysis for the 34th week: the super giant whale is suspected of shipping; there is a lack of new buyers in the market
Summarized by AI
Original title: "White Jade Is Not Destroyed, Which Is It?"
Original Source: WatchToweR Research Institute
Review of this week< /h4>
From August 15th to August 21st this week, the highest BTC was around 25190, the lowest was close to 20700, and the volatility reached about 18.20%.
Observing the recent chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips trading around 21200 , which will have certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
1. 20500-21200 About 90 10,000 pieces
2. 27000-31500 about 97 10,000 pieces
The probability of not breaking through 27000-31500 is about 53% .
Important news
1. Chainalysis released a semi-annual report on encryption crimes. Overall, in the face of falling prices, the volume of illegal transactions only decreased by 15% year-on-year, while the volume of legal transactions decreased by 36%.
2. Binance was approved in principle by the Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA). Approval in principle of the regulator of the Binance entity.
3. Tether ( USDT ) Market Cap Gains Nearly Since US Treasury Sanctions on Crypto Mixer Tornado Cash ; $2 billion.
a. After Tornado Cash sanctions, users transfer 1.6 USD worth USDC to USDT .
4. The Korean Financial Services Commission (FSC) will launch a digital asset working group on 8 June 17 and hold its first meeting " The Digital Assets Framework Law aims to formally incorporate various digital assets such as virtual assets (cryptocurrency) and NFT into the system.
5. The proposed amendments to the European Union's financial services law show that EU banks exposed to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin will face holding caps and high capital requirements.
a. Among them, bitcoin and other assets that are considered by cryptocurrencies to be too volatile or risky are collectively referred to as the 2 category of assets , will receive the most cautious rating.
b. While 1 class cryptoassets (including stablecoins and securities using distributed Lower risk, more flexible capital requirements and no cap.
6. According to the temporary new regulations of the Canadian financial regulator, Canadian banks and insurance companies must limit their exposure to encrypted assets below a fixed ratio .
a. Specifically, if a financial firm's total exposure to Class 2 cryptoassets (which, as defined by the regulator, would include most cryptocurrencies ) exceeds 1% of its Tier 1 capital, it needs to notify the Financial Institutions Supervisory Office.
b. The rule will go into effect in the second quarter of 2023.
7. Ghada Waly, Executive Director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, said that controlling the use of cryptocurrencies can go some way to making the Internet safer.
8. The Dutch Fiscal Information and Investigation Agency (FIOD) Statement provided to the DeFi Education Fund by the advocacy group in August Published on the 17th, the statement said:
a. "The development of tools is not prohibited, but if the sole purpose of creating tools is to commit criminal acts, such as hiding criminal funds flow, then online/offering developed tools may be punished.”
9. CZ: Regulation can bring higher credibility to the encryption industry
10. The Thailand Securities and Exchange Commission (Thai SEC) has asked cryptocurrency investors in the country to handle DeFi with caution trade, saying it is risky.
a. Regulators believe that local regulators cannot control the emerging industry.
Encrypted ecological news
8.15
1. ETH development platform Infura has fully supported Arbitrum Goerli test network
2. The ETH fork project EthereumPoW (ETHW) tweeted that the initial version of ETHW Core has been released on GitHub. The main features are:
a. Disable the difficulty bomb;
b. EIP-1559 changes, the base fee is changed to a multi-signature wallet jointly managed by miners and the community;
c. Adjust the initial mining difficulty of ETHW.
3. Gabor Gurbacs, director of digital asset strategy at VanEck, a New York investment management company, tweeted that in the past month, about $1 billion has been withdrawn from USDC Transferred to USDT.
4. According to the research report released by Market Research Future (MRFR), it is estimated that by 2030, the application scale of blockchain in the media and entertainment market will reach USD 11.8 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% during 2022-2030.
5. ETH co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that hardware wallets are overrated.
6. Terra founder Do Kwon said in his first interview after the crash of Terra that he admitted that it was a failed algorithmic stablecoin Project
7. One of the representatives of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) of the Philippine central bank said in an interview that the Philippine central bank wants to promote cryptocurrency education because Authorities see potential in cryptocurrencies and blockchain.
8. Revolut approved to offer #Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the EEA, Revolut has 17 million Million customers in the EEA
8. p>
8.16
1. Encryption Research Center Coin Center published a blog post stating that the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanction on Tornado Cash may have procedural and legal flaws. Coin Center stated:
“We believe that OFAC exceeded its legal authority by adding certain Tornado Cash smart contract addresses to the SDN list, which may have violated due process and constitutional rights.” Coin Center The standard that smart contracts cannot be sanctionable entities is dangerous to coders all over the world.
2. CryptoPunks stated on its official Twitter that the CryptoPunks NFT Holders bring "endless creativity and possibility."
a. In addition, Yuga Labs still reserves the right to make changes to this agreement to ensure that it can always provide the best service to the community.
3. Grayscale Research (Grayscale) discussed on its official website the possible transition of ETH to Proof of Equity and proved the theoretical workload of ETHW The chain was compared with ETC.
a. Grayscale concluded that due to the complexity of DeFi and the proliferation of asset-backed tokens, ETHW forks will face major challenges.
b. While the chances of success are expected to be low, some support for the PoW fork has emerged from miners and trading platforms.
4. Mike Belshe, CEO of cryptocurrency custodian BitGo, said in an interview that the company is raising funds globally and has already attracted a cash offer , which is worth more than the terminated deal with Galaxy Digital.
5. According to the disclosure of the New York City Conflict of Interest Commissioner, New York City Deputy Mayor for Public Safety Phil Banks has assets and investments in In 2021 the value is as high as 6.45 US$, in addition, Phil Banks said that he has purchased Bitcoin and ETH worth from US$15,000 to US$150,000.
6. Bitcoin selling by listed mining companies has more than halved in two months, down nearly 58%.
8.17
2. EthereumPow: ETHW Core will introduce liquidity pool freezing technology to protect user assets
4. According to Dune Analytics data, the number of daily active transaction users of the OpenSeaETH network hit an 8-month low, with 19,781 active purchase users on the 15th.
5. The head of the Colombian Taxation and Customs Administration (DIAN) said: Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will be launched
6. Dogecoin: Officially stated that it is not related to Dogechain, and the total lock-up volume on the Dogechain chain exceeded 4.5 million US dollars
8. It was clarified on Twitter that the acquisition of Manchester United is an old meme on Twitter, and no team will be purchased
9. The official website ethereum.org clarifies the misunderstanding about the merger in the aunt upgrade guide
8.18
1. The Republican Senator of Pennsylvania, USA stated in a letter to the Acting Chairman of the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation):
a. FDIC may have acted improperly to prevent banks from doing business with legitimate cryptocurrency-related companies.
2. The European Central Bank (ECB) stated that the introduction of digital cash in the form of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) seems to be the guarantee for the smooth continuation of the current monetary system the only solution.
3. ETH fork project EthereumPoW (ETHW) released its initial list of contracts that it plans to freeze during the hard fork, and plans to freeze about 85 contracts. Holds a total of about 1.4 million ETH Token (worth $2.6 billion).
4. V God posted on his personal Twitter, "I'm glad to see that members of the ETH community oppose putting ETH above other legitimate cryptocurrencies The above regulations.
a. In addition, V God once again reiterated his opposition to ban PoW.
< /p>
5. According to 2Miners data, the current ETC network computing power is 38.78TH/s, with a 24 hour increase of 24.89%, a record high.< /p>
6. Web3 Digital medical start-up company Love Health Announces completion of financing of 7.5 million at a valuation of 180 million US$ .
8.19
1. ETC official said on Twitter to be careful about ETHW.
a. Including:
EIP -1559 Multisig distributed to someone, censorship of TVL and smart contracts, confusing decisions, lack of community drive, website incorrectly lists CEX and mining pools as "contributors".
2. According to the data on the chain, the current ETH merger progress has been completed by 96.54%. According to the current network situation, the merger is expected to be completed on September 15 conduct.
3. Ali Martinez, an analyst on the cryptocurrency chain, tweeted that BTC miners seem to have used the recent price increase to lock in profits.
4. ether published a report independently audited by the former 5 big accounting firm BDO to enhance the transparency of reserves.
a. The report shows that Tether has reserves of 66.4 US$66.4 billion and total liabilities of about 66.2 billion. Assets exceed its liabilities.
8.20
1. According to Bitcoin analyst Bitcoin Archive tweeted that the Federal Reserve said that cryptocurrencies have brought opportunities to banks, customers and the entire financial system
2. Glassnode data shows , the current trading platform ETH outflow (7-day average) is $14,564,884.80, a one-month low.
3. According to CNBC reports, the revenue of FTX trading platform will increase by more than 1000% in 2021 in 2021 , Reached 1.02 billion US dollars.
Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
< /p>
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation : Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as some directions and the possibility of a certain event under a certain premise
Long-term insight
< br>
Accumulation trend of participants of each size
On-chain chips of participants of each size
< p> This week, we briefly analyze the current market mainly from the perspective of "volume".
(The figure below accumulation trend of participants of each size)
Only two significant groups accumulated between mid-June and early July.
respectively:
1. Super giant whale user
< p>2. The growth of small players in the market as a wholeAfter the initial stabilization of the market in early July, they all changed to a neutral attitude, among which the super giants Whales transition faster.
What is interesting is that from August to now, most of the participants as a whole have turned into sell-offs, and there is no increase in players, even the smallest ones have become neutral state.
(The following picture Chain chips of each size participant)
In the yellow range, it can be further seen that the main selling price of the super giant whale is above 22500 to around 24200.
In comparison, the overall sell-off ratio is not particularly high, more similar to bands and other means.
Mid-term exploration
URPD
URPD
p>
Chip map divided by quantity
Positive network sentiment
Old age, high coin volume, multiple selling pressure
< p> BTC that has grown to more than 3 months
Age maturity zone
The number of addresses above 1BTC
is non-zero Number of addresses
Stable coin trend net position
Stable coin circulation
BTC trading platform net position
Net position of ETH trading platform
Chip distribution rating: There is resistance at the top, but there is still support at the bottom
(below URPD)
18500- 21280 There are 1.6612 million chips to undertake, and there are more participants in the current price range to increase their holdings.
From the current situation, market participants have a better acceptance of chips in this range.
Because there are 1,439,500 chips in 22000-24000, which is higher than the current price, it may constitute some upper resistance.
(The picture below chips divided by quantity)
It can be seen from the chip chart of the number division that a certain amount of coins between 22000-24000 have been charged to the trading platform.
It may be that these coins have been sold on the trading platform, but the number of sales has not been further enlarged.
Emotional state rating: waiting for repair, low persistent selling pressure
(pictured below ;Online emotional positivity)
Currently, the enthusiasm of online sentiment has declined, And break through the 0 line and drop to a negative value.
Entered the stage of waiting for repair.
(Picture below high age and high coin volume multiple selling pressure)
Compared with the previous stage, the current high age and high coin volume have many times Selling pressure is in the lower range;
They are more patient than before.
Time perspective rating: currently lack of new buyers, increasing number of long-term traders >
Long-term traders showed more increases in untouched supply.< /p>
Current long-term traders choose to continue to hold.
(pictured below short-term traders unmoved supply and net position)
The overall operation frequency of short-term traders is relatively high, and the overall position change direction is uncertain .
Currently there is a small increase, but the magnitude is relatively small.
(the figure below new force and the number of new addresses)
The new force is still declining, and there is a lack of participation of new buyers in the market.
After the new address increases to a certain extent, it is in the lingering stage.
Growth Status Rating: Slow Down
(The picture below grows to 3 months BTC above)
pink line : Unmoved supply of BTC over 3 months
Purple Line: BTC that has grown over 3 months
Good growth, which means that participants who entered 3 months ago are currently not exodus from the pattern.
( maturity band in the picture below)
Yellow line: 6-12 month bear market builder
Green line: 1-2 year bull market trapper
The quilt in the bull market no longer flees, but turns to growth, and is currently in the recovery stage.
The growth rate of bear market quilters has slowed down.
(The number of addresses above 1BTC in the figure below)
The number of high-quality addresses above 1BTC is still growing, and the overall growth rate has slowed down and has been hovering recently.
(Number of non-zero balance addresses in the figure below)
< /p>
The number of non-zero balance addresses is still growing, and the growth rate is in the stage of hovering and repairing.
Net position rating: total purchasing power reduction, USDC capital loss.
(below stable currency trend net position)
< /p>
Blue: USDC Trend Net Position
Green Line: USDT Trend Net Position
USDC has a slight reversal, and there is a phenomenon of weak return to the trading platform.
After USDT flowed out of the trading platform, it is still lingering, and there is no obvious trend.
( stable coin circulation in the picture below)
Blue area: USDC circulation slope
Green area: USDT circulation slope
< /p>
USDC circulation has declined to a large extent;
USDT circulation has increased.
Combined with the trend net position of stablecoins,
USDC has experienced capital loss;
USDT circulation has increased, but The outflow from the trading platform is temporarily judged as wait-and-see funds.
(The chart below BTC trading platform trend net position)
(below ETH trading platform trend net position)
BTC and ETH are currently mainly in the state of buying and flowing out of trading platforms, and are still biased towards accumulation.
1. With the passage of time, the amount of BTC outflow from the trading platform is greater. Under the cumulative effect, the strength in the market will gradually form a stable downward trend Support;
2. The net position of the trend has a certain significance in advance. In the top area in November 2021, there will be a relatively large amount of coins flowing into the trading platform to form "Seller pressure", at the same time, the phenomenon of "buying outflow" in the entire top structure is very rare;
3. Recently, from June 15 to now, the market The tone of the exchange has always been accumulation, and the balance of the trading platform is gradually declining. Perhaps under the effect of "artificial deflation", the "potential sellers" inside the trading platform will be compressed.
Short-term observation
Change rate of futures open interest, long liquidation advantage
p>
Funding rate
ETH put/call option position ratio
BTC put/call option position ratio
;ETH Active Addresses
ETH Destroyed Amount, Total Transfer Amount
Profit Impact
Profit and Loss Transfer Amount
< p> Global Time Zone Purchasing PowerStable Coin Trading Platform Balance
Off-chain Data
;Derivatives Market Rating: Clearing Leverage
(The chart below change rate of futures open interest, long liquidation advantage)
< br>
Red: Futures open interest rate of change
Green: Long liquidation advantage
From August 15th to August 17th, the growth rate of leverage was too fast, and it rose rapidly in a short period of time, and the risk of derivatives was high.
Integrating the advantages of long liquidation, the proportion of long liquidation in the overall market has been low since August 8, and the proportion of long liquidation has been rising since then, which means that the leverage of long positions in the market is relatively high.
Leverage liquidation occurred after the high risk of derivatives on August 17. At present, the decline in leverage is obvious, and the risk of derivatives has fallen back to some extent.
( funding rate in the picture below)
The funding rate has dropped significantly at present. In the stage of clearing leverage this time, the bulls suffered heavy losses, and the bulls' funds have dropped significantly in the short term.
( ETH put/call option position ratio in the figure below)
The proportion of ETH put/call option positions has continued to rise since August 6, which means that mature traders in the options market have begun to switch in early August Bullish sentiment and increased bearishness to hedge the risks that the market may bring, and the ratio is still rising.
In the short term, the exposure to ETH merger expectations has dropped significantly. ETH is affected by market sentiment factors and has a high weight. Investors need to pay attention to risks.
(Picture below BTC put/call option position ratio)
There was some put option profit taking last week.
Currently, the proportion of put/call option positions has risen to the level of last week, which means that the market’s betting direction on the future of Bitcoin has not changed significantly in the short term .
Spot market:
ETH: Sentiment drops, selling pressure released
( ETH active address below)
The activity of ETH has been declining since August 4th. There is no sign of recovery in the short term, and the market sentiment is low.
(Picture below ETH coin-day destruction amount, total transfer amount)
Green: Coin days destroyed
Red: ETH total transfer volume
< /p>
There was a relatively high amount of transfers on August 17th, and a large number of high-age coins moved during the same period.
This means that a relatively large amount of mature ETH has been transferred, market sentiment has stagnated, investors are eager to make profits, and a large number of profit-taking has led to long-term The market initially released selling pressure as leveraged long positions built up during the month-long rally were liquidated.
Bitcoin: Take profit selling back down
(below Profit Shock)
Blue: profit shock.
Green: Address in profit status.
The margin of profit-making sales has fallen back after reaching a high level, and there is still no sign of rising.
Comprehensively profitable addresses reached a local high in mid-August, which represented that the market profitability was at the local peak of the market at that time.
Currently, this indicator has dropped significantly,
1. It is a large number of groups selling at a profit
2. The market has fallen rapidly in a short period of time , causing this part of the chips to turn into a loss.
( profit and loss transfer amount in the picture below)
Specifically, the amount of profit transfer has continued to decline to a low position, which means that the current market profitability is low.
The amount of loss transfers rose to a local high and then fell back, which means that the panic selling sentiment in the market has temporarily slowed down in the short term.
Purchasing Power Rating: Declining Purchase Intention
(Purchasing Power in Global Time Zones below)
p>
The purchasing power of the American time zone and the European time zone has continued to decline,
p>
Purchasing power is currently slowing in the Asian time zone.
In the past, the main purchasing power came from the Asian time zone, but at present the overall purchasing power of the market shows obvious signs of slowing down, and the purchasing power still needs a certain amount of time and space to recover.
(Pictured below stablecoin trading platform balance)
Blue: USDC trading platform balance
Green: USDT trading platform balance
USDC has a slight inflow sign, USDT There is no increasing trend for the time being.
Funds have initially entered a wait-and-see state.
Off-chain data rating: around $20,000 has purchasing power
(pictured below Binance transaction Platform order book)
Binance is around $20,800 and $20,000 There is a touch of buyer pending orders.
( Bitfinex trading platform order book below)
Bitfinex has a buyer pending order near 20,000 US dollars.
(the following figure Coinbase trading platform order book)
Coinbase buy and sell orders are scattered.
This week's summary:
Message Summary:
1. The encryption market is undergoing the test of compliance and supervision, and the ideal of decentralization may become a reality Long cherished wish.
2. The ETH network ecology has entered a state of stagnation, and the merger is imminent, and the wait-and-see and loss of faith began to spread.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. Super giant whales from mid-June to July is holdings. However, it has turned into a sell-off since August;
2. The selling price of super giant whales is mainly biased at around 22500-24200 to distribute chips;
3. But the overall range is not very large, and it is more biased towards the band method.
Market setting:
Under the uncertainty of policies and other aspects, fear and anxiety will be magnified by imagination.
In the second half of the year, the market may gradually become more firm and credible with the gradual implementation of policies and the blessing of less and less thunderstorms.
Interim exploration on the chain:
1. 22000-24000 There is a certain amount of coins for sale ;
2. The enthusiasm of the network sentiment has declined, breaking the 0 line, waiting for repair;
3. The high age and high currency volume did not release the selling pressure continuously, and the overall bias
4. Long-term, short-term traders unmoved supply increases, but the new force is still declining;
5. Grows to more than 3 months The number of BTC has increased a lot, and the internal growth of short-term traders is better;
6. The builders of the bear market slow down their entry speed, and the patience of those trapped in the bull market increases;
>7. The number of high-quality addresses slowed down and the growth rate declined, and the number of addresses with non-zero balances was hovering and repairing;
8. USDC circulation decreased, capital loss occurred, USDT Circulation increased;
9. The market is still biased towards accumulation.
Market setting tone:
Repair/Wait and see
Currently there are no new buyers in the market, on-chain Still accumulating, entering the stage of wandering and waiting.
Short-term observations on the chain:
1. There is a large margin in futures liquidation contracts decline.
2. The funding rate has dropped significantly.
3. The put ratio of ETH options has increased slightly.
4. The Bitcoin options market has not changed much.
5. The active addresses of ETH continued to decline.
6. ETH selling pressure initially released.
7. Bitcoin profit taking.
8. Bitcoin loss transfer reached a local high and fell back.
9. The purchasing power of the global time zone is declining.
10. The outflow of funds in the market has slowed down.
11. Off-chain data has purchasing power around $20,000.
12. The probability of not breaking through 27000-31500 is about 53% .
Market setting:
Loss-selling sentiment has slowed down, but the purchasing power is still not sufficient, and more shock games may be needed, waiting for choices.
Risk warning:
The above are market discussions and explorations, not directional to investment Opinion; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This article is from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
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