Bitcoin cycle review and thinking: How to seize opportunities in the next cycle?

22-11-22 20:00

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Original author: 0xUnicorn

Almost everything is cyclical There are few things I can be sure of, but these few things: The cycle always wins out in the end.

Nothing always goes in one direction. Big trees cannot be towering, and BTC will not return to zero.

Insisting on predicting the future based on the status quo is the worst for investors.

We are at the end of the 5th bull-bear cycle of BTC, the 6th round It will start in the middle and late 2023, looking back at what happened in these 5 rounds?

2010-November 2011: Bitcoin’s first bull-bear cycle< /h4>

Bitcoin is still a niche experiment by a group of professional developers called "cypherpunks"

In July 2010, Mt. Gox was established. During the June 2011 hacking period, the price of Bitcoin soared from $0.06 to a peak of $29.38 in less than a year

Then its price fell to a low of 2.14 before November , plunged 93% in less than half a year

November 2011-July 2013: The Cyprus crisis triggers a new second round of Bitcoin

Say the night is darkest before the dawn, and Bitcoin's detached status has attracted investors amid Cyprus' ongoing financial crisis.

As Mt. It peaked at 212.38 in April. In the following week, Bitcoin fell nearly 70% to below 66.

July 2013-January 2015: China joins Bitcoin "battlefield", third round

At the end of 2013, the center of the bitcoin trading world crossed the Sea of Japan, from Tokyo, where Mt. Gox headquarters is located, to China, the most populous country on earth. U.S. dollar

Since then, Bitcoin has launched the longest period, culminating in January 2015 Bottom below $200, down 84%

January 2015-December 2018: Bitcoin goes mainstream, round 4

After the longest bear market, Bitcoin launched the longest bull market in January 2015, The impact of the "halving" of Bitcoin's regional mining rewards and multiple forks, climbing the so-called "Wall of Worry", hit a peak of $20,000 in the week before Christmas in 2017.

A year later, Bitcoin has finally bottomed and the public sees it as a tulip-like, fleeting fad

2018 Dec to date: Institutions and Wall Street leading to bust

and trends from previous cycles Similarly, Bitcoin has since experienced a so-called rebirth from the ashes, hitting new highs repeatedly in the past two years. The biggest driving force for this round of rising cycle comes from the recognition of institutions.

A variety of companies, including securities companies, insurance companies, car companies and Wall Street investment banks, Even the central banks of some countries are exploring. This is where the recent crisis started, GBTC is the gateway for a large number of institutions

Bitcoin cycle conclusion

Bitcoin can It is reasonable to expect that the magnitude of the price cycle will decrease and the duration of the cycle will be extended

Bear market price - BTC from The limit retracement range of 69000 is 82%, which is 12420U (the limit price may not be reached)

Bear market cycle - the longest bear market in BTC history is 415 days, and the current bear market is 360 days. It is expected that after the Chinese Lunar New Year in the cycle, there may be a starting point for the sixth round of bull market