Borrow 32 pairs of discerning eyes, look through Crypto 2023

Original title: Borrow 32 pairs of discerning eyes, look through Crypto's 2023

原文作者： Azuma， Odaily 星球日报

The year 2022 has come to an end. Looking back at the past year, the price of the currency continued to fall, the data on the chain shrank significantly, FTX, three arrows, Terra  As once mighty giants have collapsed, downturns and crashes seem to be the industry's "main theme".

The good news is that the crypto world is no stranger to cyclical cycles. Since Bitcoin's birth, the industry has gone through many bull and bear cycles and has always managed to find new life between ups and downs and chaos, continuing to grow with the ebb and flow of new projects.

The outlook for 2023  The New Year is widely expected to be a recovery. After the most bitter winter, the turning point of the cycle is bound to come. In order to facilitate you to grasp the opportunity of the next round of bull market in advance, Odaily Planet specially collates the recent analysis of the market and trend of various institutions, projects and celebrities, hoping to help you with your investment and work in the New Year.

Mainstream projects and companies

Co-founder of Ethereum; Vitalik  Buterin

On Dec. 20, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin  In an interview with Bankless co-founder David HoffmaninterviewHe predicts three areas of opportunity in 2023: wallets, inflation-fighting stablecoins, and Ethereum-based web login services.

Vitalik says developers should still do more work on wallet infrastructure to make it easier to use on a daily basis, so it's ready to serve billions of users; In addition, the development of a hyperinflation-resistant and globally accessible stablecoin will start a new industry revolution; Finally, anything that helps Ethereum from Services that take away access to websites from Facebook, Google, Twitter and other centralised monopolies could help Ethereum dominate the market for Internet applications.

But... Vitalik also noted that the opportunity to fill the void has become less obvious given the increasing competition and maturity of the market.

ConsenSys

ConsenSys  on December 15; On CMC's " 2023 Script" channel, an article was posted about the future of zk RollupPredictive article.

ConsenSys points out that as the zkEVM solution matures, in the future we will see projects following other Rollup paths (mostly Optimistic Rollup) looking to transition to ZK-proven or hybrid solutions, And leverage its existing user base to consolidate its market dominance. Ultimately, the many Rollup solutions (and the growing competition among them) will continue to improve the user experience in the Web3 world and attract more users as an application platform.

In the long run, Layer  The real winners of Track 2 will be able to take advantage of zk Rollup's efficiency and combine it with a seamless developer and user experience to stand out.

Polygon

On December 21, Polygon published a series of summaries about 2022tweet.

When it comes to 2023, Polygon predicts, The year 2023 will belong to. The year of technology, when the entire crypto ecosystem will be a game changer; In the meantime, after the collapse of CeFi in 2022, 2023 will likely be. DeFi  One of the most important years in history, unmanaged wallet, ZK expansion, on-chain credit, stablecoin adoption are the key components to push DeFi to new heights.

Uniswap

On December 22, Uniswap Labs released an article on  DEX  that could surpass CEX in the future on CMC's " 2023 Script" channelPredictive article.

The article points out that there are signs of this from trading data. DEX has been eating into CEX's market share, but in order to overtake CEX, DEX will have to solve three major problems in the future: creating a more user-friendly process for accessing gold; Improve the user experience for the average trader; Compete on costs and expenses.

Binance founder CZ

On December 28, CZ posted a letter to all its usersOpen letter.

'The industry will continue to suffer from the FTX collapse for a long time, but in terms of market health, each bear market is in better shape than the last one, so we expect a relatively quick recovery,' CZ wrote.

It is critical that the crypto ecosystem focus first on protecting users, while also innovating and building to bring Cyrpto and Web3 deeper into People's Daily lives. CZ predicts that infrastructure and data tools will continue to evolve and become more numerous, and that we will see the evolution of Web3 ownership and the rise of unmanaged wallets and multi-link wallets.

Coinbase

On December 20, Coinbase launched 2023  Cryptocurrency Market OutlookReport, which predicts three key themes for 2023.

Coinbase predicts that institutional investors will shift to quality assets, placing more emphasis on sustainability of Token economics, maturity of ecosystem and market liquidity conditions when selecting asset classes. The second is that creative destruction eventually creates new opportunities, and investors' willingness to increase their holdings of Altcoin has been severely affected by deleveraging in 2022, which may take months to fully recover. Third, fundamental reform will usher in the next cycle, which will be largely influenced by the development of regulatory standards and frameworks.

BitMEX  Arthur Hayes, founder

On December 10th, keen to predict the market. Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, has issued another predictionarticleThe analysis points out that selling pressure from centralized lenders, bitcoin miners and ordinary speculators has basically ended, and the collapse of Alameda/FTX may have hit a cyclical bottom.

Arthur's final prediction: "I don't know if the dollar is the bottom of the cycle, but I do believe it is due to forced selling due to the credit crunch... I think because of the federal reserve tightened monetary policy, the us Treasury market will be in & have spent 2023 & have spent years appear disorder sometime, then the fed will open the printing presses, all COINS and other risky assets will usher in soaring."

OKX  Founder Xu Mingxing

Xu Mingxing, founder of OKX, on Dec 28tweetSay,   The cryptocurrency space will be very interesting in 2023, with Ethereum 2.0 and zero-knowledge proof technology making Ethereum a true blockchain operating system.

Kraken  The proposed CEO  David Ripley

David Ripley, the incoming new CEO of cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken, during an interview with Bussiness Insider on Dec. 19shareHis personal top five trends for 2023 are: nbsp for ticketing systems and gaming infrastructure; NFT, cross-border payments such as the Bitcoin Lightning network. Filecoin  Such as decentralized storage, decentralized social media, and cryptocurrency self-custody business.

Crypto.com

On December 28, Crypto.com was onlineYear-end summary articleThe number of cryptocurrency owners worldwide could reach 600-800 million by 2023, depending on market conditions, predicts.

而在各个细分领域，Crypto.com 预测：在未来一两年内将会出现一些 AAA 级的区块链游戏；灵魂绑定 Token （SBTs）的使用也会越来越多；越来越多的 Web2 开发者会对 Web3 产生兴趣；人们越来越关注安全以及用户教育。建立一个成功的商业模式的关键是与终端用户建立信任；新的区块链基础设施、ZK 证明、更多基于效用的 DeFi 应用、以太坊的上海升级和机构采用等等也将受到广泛关注。

Well-known investment institution

a16z  A number of partners under his wing

On December 16, a16z released a report from its business partners about 2023Viewpoint prediction collection. In the cryptocurrency space, Noah Citron and seven other partners talked about their bullish potential, as follows.

Noah Citron: Mobile blockchain services;

Valeria Nikolaenko: Zero-knowledge, multi-party computing and post-quantum encryption;

Zero-knowledge system shifts from theory to practice;

Joseph Bonneau, Verifiable Delay Function (VDF) hardware;

Carra Wu: Full on-chain games and "autonomous Worlds";

Michael Blau：不可转让 Token （相较于灵魂绑定 Token ，Blau 称更喜欢这个描述）；

Guy Wuollet: Decentralization of the energy market.

Dragonfly Partners   Haseeb Qureshi   Tom Schmidt

December 14, Dragonfly Partners   Haseeb Qureshi   Tom Schmidt  CMC's " 2023 Script" channel has published a piece on the development of the industryPrediction article.

Haseeb et al. pointed out that after the FTX incident, the standard of due diligence in the industry will inevitably be raised. Therefore, when investing in CeFi companies, more VC will require board seats or more corporate control. For investee firms, raising the reserve certificate (PoR) is likely to become the standard practice in the future.

Eventually, we may see a breakdown in the role of trading platforms. Today, trading platforms act as custodians, brokers, loan service providers and trading platforms, all tied to one main body. Going forward, we are likely to see these different functions split up into different entities, as in traditional finance, which will make it harder for trading platforms to steal clients' money (as they have no access to it). All in all, these changes are designed to make the next FTX event less likely.

Delphi Digital  Game Executive   Piers Kicks

Dec. 14, Head of Games at Delphi Digital   Piers Kicks Publish a documentSummarizes the current situation of Crypto games, and talks about his views on the future of Crypto games.

Piers mentions that there will be some real excitement in the Crypto industry in the next 1-2 years, with some Crypto-related releases from traditional game services in the future that will help push Crypto games into the mainstream.

But... Piers added: "I'm not sure 2023 will see a breakout game that reaches millions of users. I don't want to jump to the conclusion that 2023 will be a boom year for Crypto games. I think some of the teams that get funded will keep a low profile in 2023 and it will be interesting to keep an eye on them."

Pantera Capital  Partner Paul Veradittakitl

Paul Veradittakitl, a partner at Pantera Capital, on his personal website on December 15Publish a document谈及了对 2023 年的趋势预测。Paul 认为 2023 年将有六大主要趋势，分别为：DeFi 将在 CeFi 修复的同时继续增长；我们将看到大量零知识证明的采用；越来越多的机构会将金融资产 Token 化；越来越多的公司将会利用区块链数据；随着区块链开发者寻求更简单有效的方法来部署 Web3 项目，开发者工具堆栈将继续发展；为持有者提供某种价值的 NFT（比如游戏 NFT 和身份 NFT）将继续发展。

Hashkey Capital

It was released on December 21  DeFi Ecosystem ReportHashkey Capital  He said he should remain optimistic about DeFi development in 2023 for four reasons: first, large-scale adoption; Second, the realization of Web3 financial interaction; Third, innovation; Fourth, unprecedented network effects can be generated through scalability.

Puzzle Ventures

On Dec. 21, Puzzle Ventures inYear-end summary articleIn this paper, the development status of decentralized storage track is analyzed. Puzzle Ventures predicts that four types of projects are expected to be the engines for the next wave of growth on the storage circuit:

一是 DSN 聚合器：建立在不同/相同 DSN 网络上的聚合入口，并提供费用最优化的选择、统一 Token 支付、数据可用/调用服务等提升用户友好性的工具。

The second is off-chain computing: although Filecoin already has a decentralized computing layout on the chain, pure on-chain computing cannot meet the requirements of more complex computing. Comprehensive solutions that combine on-chain data and off-chain computing can enhance the value of data use and expand use cases by performing more complex calculations.

Third, Layer  Storage extension network: Layer  1  The advantage of storage and computing power expansion is that it can be directly connected with   Layer  1  Ecology creates deep connectivity, even for projects with high data storage requirements such as social and gaming, while allowing rapid and large-scale integration with official approval.

Fourth, third party data security network: security protection of data stored in existing DSNS, review, backup and block hacker attacks on storage nodes, and relevant compensation insurance schemes.

DARMA Capital  Partner Andrew Keys

Dec. 29, DARMA Capital  Partner Andrew Keys at"23 predictions for the blockchain ecology in 2023In 2023, Ethereum will remain the most widely adopted, developed and funded Layer 1 blockchain, the article predicts. A merger would be the industry's greatest event since Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin creation block in 2009. 2023 will see more subtle but no less important developments in Ethereum, with flywheel effects driving more adoption and capital, which will make Ethereum the frontrunner for the next bull market.

Andrew writes: "When we look back at 2022 10 years from now, the real news will not be Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and  Celsius Network's folly, but Ethereum's conversion to proof of interest and continued to be the most mainstream Layer  A series of protocol-level developments have created waves of innovation, development, users and capital. In Ethereum, we are witnessing the evolution of the underlying human social, economic and political operating system."

TCG Crypto

On December 28, TCG Crypto wrote to investorsYear-end reviewIt is mentioned that   In 2023, the agency will focus on looking for investment opportunities in three areas: first, mobile native Web3 applications; Second, new media mode based on public chain data; Third, infrastructure that can power ecosystems on a large scale.

Brevan Howard, head of Venture Capital   Peter Johnson

Peter Johnson , co-head of venture capital at Brevan Howard Digital, on Dec. 22;tweetThe future space of stablecoin market is discussed.

Peter points out that last year, Stablecoin transactions (excluding transactions on centralized platforms) were over $7 trillion. That's far more than mastercard (about $2.2 trillion), AmEx (about $1 trillion), and Discover (less than $200 billion). By 2023  This year, on-chain Stablecoin payments will not only surpass those of Visa, the largest card network, which handles around $12 trillion annually, but will probably surpass those of America's four major card networks combined.

Co-founder of Three Arrows Capital   Kyle Davies

The fallen Three Arrows didn't miss its 2023 forecast either, but it was more or less gossipy. Kyle Davies, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital  , Dec. 26;tweetPredicted some crypto industry events in 2023: SBF will plead guilty, about 100 people will be indicted, but SBF will not serve time in prison in 2023; Genesis and Grayscale could face class-action lawsuits. Will be prosecuted for misconduct between affiliated subsidiaries. DCG  To initiate criminal proceedings; Binance will continue to gain market share; Tether will remain anchored; Dubai and Singapore remain global encryption hubs; BTC  And   ETH  Keep producing blocks, cryptocurrency is not dead.

Investment research institutions and communities

Messari

On December 22nd Messari published a 157-page essay"  Cryptocurrency Annual Report 2023"", gives an impressive overview of the state of the crypto ecosystem, focusing on Bitcoin and stablecoins, Layer  1 and Rollup, DeFi, NFT and   DAO  And other areas of development. In view of the content of the full text is more, I suggest that you move to"Messari  Annual Report Highlights:   2023  The crypto market in 2005. 33  A prediction"Read.

Founder of Messari   Ryan Selkis

In addition to the annual report, Messari founder Ryan Selkis also has a personal presence on social mediaTalk about"DeSoc is now my number one investment theme for 2023."

Nansen  Founder Alex Svanevik

On Dec. 12, Nansen founder Alex Svanevik was thereTwitterThe above mentioned his own views on 2023, but unlike many others, Alex is still pessimistic about the development of the industry in 2023.

Alex points out that 2023. This year will be the year of the crypto startup bloodbath for a number of reasons: first, most startups born in 21/22 don't have any money; Second, some companies will be acquired; The third is that only a few companies have been able to raise new funding. 80% unfunded); Fourth, technical staff wages will fall; Fifth, technical jobs will be cut; Sixth, venture capital will shift to other areas (such as artificial intelligence).

Dapp Radar

On Dec. 21, Dapp Radar published a tens of thousands of wordsAnnual Dapps Industry Development Report.

In its report, Dapp Radar highlights the development of the NFT circuit and predicts that practical types of NFT (such as gaming, identity, and Pass cards) are expected to grow significantly in 2023, and could disrupt various industries by granting specific rights to their holders.

By 2023, we can expect to see further development and experimentation of practical NFT in cryptocurrencies as well as in the traditional space, where traditional companies may begin to use NFT to provide unique experiences or entitlements to their users. Overall, NFT's innovative and disruptive potential is exciting and worth watching in the coming year.

Orco Cloud Chain

On December 28, the Cloud Chain Research Institute of OukePublish a documentThe seven major industry trends predicted for 2023 are: Global encryption regulation enters a new phase and embracing compliance becomes mandatory;

Web3  Industrial applications are starting to cause creative destruction together with AI 3.0; Web3 safety track is becoming more important, and more organizations will pay attention to the on-chain data field. Capacity expansion plan continuous innovation, ZK system Layer  Ecological spring; The rise of Ce-DeFi, institutions will re-participate in the crypto market with an "alternative approach"; Institutions continue to deleverage, and retail investors have become a key force supporting market confidence. Global   CBDC  The research and development process has been accelerated, and trials of digital RMB have been further expanded.

Bankless

December 27th, decentralized communities.Publish a documentFor   The top 10 prospects for the 2023 NFT market are: Big ABC (Art Blocks, BAYC and CryptoPunks  Ecology) will continue to dominate trading volumes; Polygon infrastructure wins over big brands; AI+NFT further prosperity; Arbitrum  And   Optimism  Layer  2 NFT  Scene activity increased; Big companies will buy some NFT projects; The Web3 social platform continues to be active and making progress in the Twitter community; Projects around dynamic NFT use cases will increase; More DeFi projects embrace the NFT, for example by offering an NFT-based credit scoring feature; The number of creators using Manifold and Zora infrastructure will grow significantly; There will be the next breakthrough NFT game.

Other well-known Kols

VanEck Head of Digital Assets   Matthew Sigel

December 13, VanEck Head of Digital Assets   Matthew Sigel Publish a document分享了自己关于 2023 年的 11 项预测，核心内容包括：比特币将在第一季度试探 1 万美元至 1.2 万美元的低点，这将标志着熊市的底部；2023 年下半年，比特币将升至 3 万美元；金融机构将把超过 100 亿美元的链外资产 Token 化；一个新的去中心化的稳定币将达到 10 亿美元的市值；随着多个 AAA 级游戏进入市场，Web3 月度游戏玩家总数将从 200 万上升到 2000 万；以太坊将实现从信标链上提款。

Blockchain.com President Lane Kasselman

Published by UK Tech on December 28thinterviewIn the podcast, Blockchain.com President Lane Kasselman offers his pessimistic outlook for the coming year: "I expect the global recession to keep cryptocurrency prices depressed through 2023... We will see major players continue to evolve and take market share from platforms that no longer exist."

Founder of One Click Crypto   Max Yampolsky

December 23, Founder of One Click Crypto   Max Yampolsky on his personal blogshareAnd its trend forecast for 2023. Max believes that the following nine trends will be key to the continued growth of the Web3 industry: One is the social DeFi with added identity attributes; Second, DeFi insurance; Third, NFT liquidity facility; Fourth, more advanced DEX trading tools; Fifth, revenue-oriented applications on mobile terminals; Sixth, NFT issued by mainstream brands; Seventh, transparency services; Eight, more revenue, mergers and acquisitions; Ninth, compliance development.

Adam Moons, earnings strategist at Four Moons

On Dec. 23, Four Moons income strategist Adam Publish a documentTalked about his forecast for 2023 industry trends.

Adam 预测称，考虑到比特币的走势与纳斯达克指数已越来越近，且存在潜在的 Mt.Gox 还款及 Genesis 暴雷可能性， 2023 年加密行业的原生资金将从 BTC 流出并流入良好的 Layer 1 Token 及 DApp  Token ，这意味着比特币的主导地位应该会继续下降。

在谈及具体的 Layer 1 项目时，Adam 表示其个人更看好以太坊（包括 Layer 2 ）以及 Fantom、Canto 等与 VC 关系较弱的项目，且不太看好 Aptos、Sui、Solana、Avalanche、Near 等项目，除非有更好的 Token 用例出现。

New Order

On December 23rd, a DAO New Order Publish a documentFive predictions are given for the development of Ethereum ecology, respectively: the bear market has not passed; EigenLayer will be Ethereum's most significant innovation; Blob deals don't fix scalability issues; ZK-Rollups will not see significant traction in 2023; Layer 3    Will be   Cosmos  The real competition.

AllianceDAO Core Contributor   Qiao Wang

December 21, Decentralized Accelerator   AllianceDAO Core Contributor   Qiao Wang Publish a documentSome suggestions are given on the entrepreneurial direction of Web3 ecosystem in 2023. In this article, Qiao Wang analyzes the current state of development in multiple areas such as decentralized infrastructure, gaming, consumer apps, app chains, and AI+Web3, and briefly explores the potential gaps that still exist in the market.

In terms of prognoses, for example, Qiao Wang points out that the current prognoses in Web3 are mainly used to pull high-frequency information such as prices from a centralized trading platform, enabling applications such as loans and derivatives. But we also need sources from the following sectors (Web2 social platforms, game platforms like Steam, KYC providers, credit rating agencies, banks...) The information of a relatively static prognosticator.

RedphoneCrypto

December 15th, well-known KOL  RedphoneCrypto shared its 69 predictions for the crypto market on Twitter. (More on thatOriginal textBrowse).

In the post, RedphoneCrypto shares its top four personal trends for 2023: CeFi products on the DeFi rebuild chain; Enterprise adoption (Amazon, Apple, Google, etc.; Macro recession/cash-based capital; The financialization of NFT and the dramatic expansion of use cases.

summary

In a word, although the voices from different projects, companies, investment institutions, communities, Kols will have different predictions and judgments for 2023, but from these serious predictions, we can hear people's high hopes for 2023, but also hear everyone's hot pillow and faith for the future of Crypto.

Winter may not be over yet, and dawn may never be. But at the turn of the New Year, let us hope that everyone has the courage and strength to survive the bear market, and the enthusiasm and luck to last the bull market.

See you in 2023.

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