How to value Blur after the airdrop?

2023-02-15 11:49

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Original article by Encrypted KOL 0xBagman

czgsws & 0x214, BlockBeats

Blur, one of the most talked about objects on the circuit at the NFT Market, launched its coin sale late last night and so far 296,747,146 BLUR airdrops have been claimed from 56,594 addresses, accounting for 82.43% of the total. In the past 24 hours, Blur ranks fourth in Gas consumption for air drop applications, having consumed over 419 ETH.

This morning, the Blur economic model was announced: the initial total number of BLUR is 3 billion, with 51% allocated to the community. So, as the user who got the airdrop, should you sell, or should you Hold or even buy more?

Here are Crypto KOL 0xBagman's insights.

Here are the LooksRare and x2y2 airdrops, and you might expect a similar script to happen on Blur and try to sell it at the top (reveal: You will fail).

LOOKS

X2Y2

Instead of bothering to try to escape the top, I would have chosen a different strategy. The only real way to measure a Token's value is its market cap.

Let's look at their current valuations (in the millions) :

· LooksRare: $141 million (fully diluted market cap: $297 million)

· X2Y2: $38 million (fully diluted market value: $216 million)

Source: CoinMarketCap

MC and FDMC may be very different due to Token economics, it is relatively easy to look at FDMC. A glance at the charts makes a simple assumption that Blur should be worth more than LooksRare and X2Y2.

So little is known about BLUR's practical value that it is hard to predict its market value right now. But so far, by PacmanBlur Blur is doing well as one of the builders, so the Token economics we're waiting for should be well thought out, along with a $500 million-plus valuation. These estimates will be revised according to the official announcement.

Let's assume Blur ends up with a fair $500m valuation. I will now trade according to market cap (fully diluted market cap FDMC) :

Less than $300 million: Buy more (Token undervalued).

$300 million to $700 million: Part arbitrage, part holding

Over $700m: Sell as much as possible (tokens are overvalued)

It's important to know that the "$500 million" estimate is only a rough estimate. There is no way to get a 100 per cent fair valuation, not to mention a valuation that can change depending on Blur's future plans.