Original title: Arbitrum's Timing
The Blue Fox Notes
There are a lot of small partners say Arbitrum has been using air drop expectations to attract more users is very smart practice. That may be a tactical reading, and it seems reasonable.
However, if you look at the larger picture and the ecological development, it will miss the best strategic period.
Aribtrum had one of his best moments
在 Optimism 推出
Token
经济的半年内，Arbitrum 拥有推出Token经济的最佳时期，很遗憾错过了。在 Optimism 推出
Token
经济之前，Arbitrum 拥有超过 55% 以上的 TVL 比例，而 Optimism5% 左右，大概是 Arbitrum 的十分之一左右的比例。
在 Optimism 推出
Token
经济激励后，按照目前 l2beats 的统计，目前 Optimism 的 TVL 达到 Arbitrum 的 57%，发展迅猛。此外，其生态项目也开始逐步发展起来。比如 SNX 和 Perp 已经将其重心从以太坊 L1 迁移至 Optimism，还有一些原生的项目，如 velodrome 等也逐步有了一些用户。
From the historical total number of transactions, active users and other data, Optimism is also narrowing the distance with Arbitrum.
(optimism, which has a high number of interactions in the last 30 days)
如果 Arbitrum 在过去半年内，推出
Token
经济机制，它有可能将其生态内的项目提升更大，也有有机会极大提升其 TVL，且会具有黑洞般的吸引力。假设出现这种情况，会对 Optimism 的崛起造成极大压制。
Optimism achieved a window of opportunity for more than half a year, and this window continues to exist today, dominated by Arbitrum in the past (similar to the previous position of Opensea in the NFT market and Uniswap in DEX), Now it's Arbitrum and Optimism.
Arbitrum's edge is not forever
At present, Arbitrum has some good native projects, such as the well-known GMX and MAGIC ecology. There are also GNS and RDNT. The overall user experience is also good. But these are not permanent advantages.
Arbitrum adopts off-chain execution multi-round fraud proof technology, which has its uniqueness compared with Optimism of single-round fraud proof performed on the chain. In addition, Ethereum L1 project is easier to migrate to Arbitrum. But the threshold for these technologies is not a very high moat. When EIP4844 lands at the end of the year, those advantages may become less and less apparent.
In addition, a bedrock of Optimism is coming, and the modular L2 network will be rolled out in the future. Now coinbase has joined the party. Coinbase launches the OP Stack-based Base Test network for Ethereum's L2 network. With the introduction of the Optimism Modular L2, it will also attract more project players. Looking at the future landscape, Optimism has a good place.
Optimism is also actively studied with zk-Rollup, which may also be upgraded based on existing ecological optimism when it matures.
Furthermore, Optimism converts some people from being a masturbating player to being an ecological player with clever air-dropping. From this mechanism design, its team has very understand the community, understand the economic mechanism design master. Optimism is not minimized.
If Optimism of modular L2 comes out well as other technical iterations, then, where is Arbitrum's sustainable comparative advantage? It's early days for Layer2, and there's no clear winner.
The lesson from Opensea
Opensea 长期不推出
Token
经济机制，且一开始市场份额并没有受到大的影响，高峰期曾超过 90% 的市场份额。其主导性的位置甚至比 DEX 领域的 Uniswap 还要强。一切看上去都很美好，不推出
Token
激励机制，貌似也一样可以赢。
但 Blur 的到来，打破了这一切。Blur 的出价机制+
Token
经济机制的结合对 Opensea 形成极大冲击。Opensea 如果后续再不推出
Token
经济，那么，铁王座旁落会成为事实。当然，某种程度上，Blur 也吸取了同行的不少经验教训，也算是站在前人努力的基础上的一个创新迭代。
Arbitrum today landscape unlimited, everything looks good, there are constant projects and users into. But nothing has changed in a day. Crisis is often born in the scenery, in times of peace.
Arbitrum needs to consider projects within its ecology
Arbitrum was able to develop, GMX and MAGIC two major native projects. It's time for Arbitrum to give these projects more traffic and ecological incentives. Only in this way can we continue to enhance each other and form a larger and more sustainable ecological network.
If Arbitrum stands still, don't be surprised if GMX and MAGIC launch their own L2 chain on Optimsim in the future. Anything is possible in the future.
Historic opportunity for Abitrum
In terms of L2, Blue Fox Notes has been looking at it since three years ago and has always believed that it is one of the biggest opportunities in encryption. One of the biggest crypto Kings could emerge from this space. Arbitrum occupies an excellent position, if you can grasp this opportunity, it is possible to stand out in many L2, become one of the king.
(The exploration of Layer2 has been an important subject in the field of encryption)
Even if Zk EVM technology gradually matures in the future, it will have the opportunity to migrate its ecological past. Technical barriers are important, but ecological networks and resilience are especially hard.
Sincerely hope Arbitrum can grasp the historical opportunity, become L2 king. Before the real community, everything depends on the Arbitrum team's idea. One thought determines the future pattern of L2 history.
Risk warning: All the above analysis is only a one-sided observation of technology and market, and may not be correct. Please keep your own judgment and do a good job in risk control.
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