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Space Review: Shanghai upgrades web3's most watched track

23-03-02 12:11

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原文标题：《干货精华|Space 回顾：上海升级 web3 最受关注的赛道》

原文来源： Meeint DAO

Main topic

1. What is the impact of Shanghai's upgrade on ETH and its ecology?

2. The impact of Shanghai upgrade on the entire crypto market in the short term, and what are the participation opportunities for ordinary investors?

3. After Shanghai upgrade, will the market have selling pressure?

4. The recent recovery of the market has brought about the rapid rotation of many sectors. Is there any promising track or project?

Guest of this session

Xuan OKLink Data PM, @OKLink_Explorer

Crypto Jason FDU DAO core builder, @CryptoJason1024

Eg. A: What do you mean? Corgy Research, @0xCorgy

Chain Research Association Data trader, @lianyanshe

Jason Oasis Qiyuan co founder/lantern dao founder, @shixiang2

Yoyo EthStorage Marketing Lead, @Web3BuidlGroup

Tong Jun Xsight VC/CryptoTalks, Douyin: Tong Junshou Chain, @tongjun88

Essence review

1. What is the impact of Shanghai's upgrade on ETH and its ecology?

0x ow:Let me explain what this Shanghai upgrade is. Every upgrade of Ethereum, including the Shanghai upgrade, is a successful integration of proposals from the community or developer foundation, and these actions are called an upgrade to Ethereum.

This upgrade comes in three parts. The first is small improvements, such as small expansion or lower gas costs. The second is for developers, the Ethereum virtual machine (EVM) upgrade, add specifications about development; The third is the opening of the beacon chain withdrawal, all the applications on Ethereum pledge protocol, we can pledge the Ethereum out of the beacon chain.

Xuan:More importantly, in EIP 4895, our beacon chain has added the instruction "withdraw", so that users can withdraw pledge and pledge income at zero gas fee. From this point of view, the whole landscape may change a bit.

In the long term, the pledge content of ETH in the contract circuit of gas fee neck will definitely be an increasing trend. Including the investment level, for the prudent investors, the former position roll-over way will be recognized and accepted by more and more people; From the point of view of asset allocation, this liquid mining pool is also a quality hedge asset. Overall, I think the Shanghai upgrade will play a key role in the overall layout of Ethereum, including some very important changes in its coin price.

A surname:The main thing is the beacon chain withdrawal, it is obviously a kind of behavior conducive to liquidity, as long as it is conducive to liquidity is good, not conducive to liquidity is a good fear.

Yoyo:The scope of the Shanghai upgrade is relatively small, mainly in order to release the mortgage ETH cash as soon as possible, because if not open as soon as possible, its pledge of attraction will be greatly reduced, affecting the entry of new people.

But for me personally, a lot of the more compelling, hard-to-implement technical stuff, including the implementation of part EIP 4844, will be pushed back to the third quarter and beyond. The EIP in this update will help with future technologies, adding richness and diversity to the smart contract functionality.

Chain Research Association:I said a chain of data, 25 Sun brother pledged 55,000 ETH to Lido, this release of information is Ethereum pledge upgrade. Ethereum pledges can be freely withdrawn after upgrading, which is very important for large users. So Sun elder brother in Shanghai upgrade eve, his ETH to Lido inside to earn profits.

Another data is that Ethereum's current main network pledge rate is about 20%, some other public chains it can reach 70%. After Shanghai is upgraded, the big people are more willing to put their money in, so I think there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Jason:This upgrade should result in the decompression of 16.5 million ETH, with some short-term price fluctuations. In the long run, however, it will lower gas bills for customers, which is good for the ecology, especially if you need to use gas transactions on a large scale and frequently.

Crypto Jason:This upgrade enables the release of the funds pledged before. After unlocking, there may be downward price fluctuation, but it will not be too drastic. There are two main points: First, for the withdrawal of verifiers, it allows up to 1350 verifiers to withdraw every day, and it is a queuing mechanism, which is a linear unlocking process. The second is that if there is a big exit, its pledged APR will rise relatively, moving prices back dynamically. So in the medium to long term, I think we should have confidence in the price.

2. What is the short-term impact of the Shanghai upgrade on the crypto market and the participation opportunities for ordinary investors?

0x ow:I want to talk about the two tracks, the ones that people are looking at the most. The first is the pledge circuit, including the LDO, including all the tokens issued by the trading platform. The second track, is we recently discussed very much Layer 2 network, including now very violent OP, Arbitrum, including everyone known ZK. The second-tier network upgrade in Shanghai may be just an aperitif, but the real explosion will come in the next upgrade, called the Capella upgrade. The Capella upgrade is actually going to go live on our consensus level EIP 4844, which is Proposition 4844.

Xuan:Let me just say a few words about price and data. With the release of ETH mortgage, there may be a potential short-term selling pressure on the market, leading to some irrational situations in the currency price. For these retail investors, we should pay attention to the position of risk hedging and risk exposure of some control. Because for short - term opportunities, we are generally expected to invest poorly. For example, Shanghai Upgrade has been developed for a long time. In the short term, we can pay more attention to the real-time data of the market for analysis.

A surname:The consensus on this question is pretty good, so let me add something. The Arbitrum in Layer 2 does not issue coins. Binan some time ago on the two Arbitrum ecological project, issued a coin, you can pay attention to. Above other hot projects, but not on Binance can pay attention to.

Yoyo:I think for the average investor, Arbi (trum) has been really hot lately, but maybe it's a bit of an early hype, and when it gets out of the way, the focus may change a little bit. In addition, after the upgrade of Shanghai, because the pledge service of open ETH is provided to ordinary users, I think this kind of mining pool is also a better choice.

Chain Research Association:The short term impact has already been felt, as the two tier LSD tracks have swollen considerably. As for the upgrade, I have calculated before that the selling pressure of Ethereum pledge is 30,000 pieces in the first month after the upgrade, and the average is 20,000 pieces in the following month. With the influence of time, the later selling pressure will decrease. In addition, this part of the selling pressure is actually likely to enter Ethereum for collateral. Therefore, I think the biggest opportunity for ordinary investors after the upgrade is to buy ethereum one month after the upgrade. Later, with the increase in the number of pledges, the price of Ethereum and the development of ecology, we eat this part of the profit is actually the most stable.

Jason:My view is similar to that of the last guest. As I mentioned just now, 16.5 million ETH will be released in the coming period of time. But it's limited every month. Therefore, as the guest said just now, during this period of time, ordinary users can pay attention to the fluctuations of the market and obtain some profits in the fluctuations.

Crypto Jason:Speaking of this upgrade, in addition to the common concern of the 4895, there are actually 3855 and 3860, both of which are relatively critical. Firstly, 4895 is mainly to provide flexible pledge mechanism for the pledgor, 3855 is mainly to improve some transaction speed of Ethereum network, and 3860 is to reduce transaction costs. As a matter of fact, I have deep experience in reducing transaction costs, because I am also a fan of NFT. What impressed me most was in January last year, when the gas cost was crazy. I have seen a relatively high one that reached more than 300 U in normal times, not to mention the more exaggerated situations like monkeys. So I think 3855 and 3860 will greatly improve the usage experience of Ethereum network like Defi and NFT in the future.

In addition, recently the pledge plate has several worthy of attention. Like RPL, IDO, including SSV which is still fermenting these two days. Of course, I think the friend who did not get on the car does not have to worry too much, after the callback should still have the opportunity.

3. After Shanghai upgrade, will the market have selling pressure?

0x ow:抛压是大家最不必担心的一点。首先，无论是散户投资者还是机构投资者对于以太坊的共识还是比较强的，不然也不会有如此多的币质押在以太坊上。这次以太坊限制了质押币解锁的数量和速度，很大程度上可以缓解这部分抛压。再者是，近来非常多的 Token 进行了空投和大规模解锁，如 OP 空投、Sand box 大规模的解锁，再往前追溯到 BAYC YugaLabs 上线新游戏 Sewer Pass 的当天解锁了大量的$Ape，包括知名歌手麻吉大哥通过这波操作获利颇丰（麻吉大哥作為 YugaLabs 頭號支持者，質押大量 APE 代幣賺取收益，后续又因为質押利率下降，持續降低自己的 APE 倉位。

据统计，麻吉大哥 70 天內操作 APE 總計收益約為 440 萬美元，投資報酬率約 58％）。这都验证了一句话「解锁即拉盘」、包括机构或者一些大户，他们如果想按照他们的预期价格去交易他们持有的币种，显然是不会一拿到就把所有的筹码砸空的。筹码一定是一点一点地打，或者是可以让我的回报最大的打法。其次，所有的质押平台内有很大一部分币可以流通的，包括 LDO、SSV、Rocket Pool 等。以 sETH 为例，它的价格一直 0.9 附近，从币价就可以反应市场对于以太坊的认可与共识。当然也有部分交易平台和特殊质押 Token ，因为流通性较小，导致其与 ETH 本币的汇率超过了 1，这也从侧面印证了抛压不太严重，市场已经消化了抛压。

Xuan:I think there will be selling pressure in the short term, but not in the long term. The reasons are as follows: First, users who want to quit can complete the logout without waiting for the Shanghai upgrade to unlock. Most of my pledges like this, for example, are made using existing pools like Lido or SSV's liquist. Therefore, it can exchange ETH of SST through DEX through Lido, so it does not need to wait for Shanghai upgrade to unlock. Second, according to the current data, ETH is in a state of deflation. After the merger of ETH, the newly added value of ETH may be negative, that is, it is in a state of deflation for a long time. Third, according to the data of ETH supply changes, ETH's income changes dynamically. The smaller the amount of ETH pledge, the higher the rate of return. When we were around 4 million, its annual return was about 7.8%, but when I increased to the pledge amount was around 8 million, its annual return was about 5.5%. If short-term selling pressure occurs, the increased yield of ETH will attract users to enter. Plus unlocking is a long linear change. To sum up, the reform brought by Shanghai's upgrading is a small negative in the short term and a big positive in the long term. OKLink may publish the research report in the future, so keep an eye on it.

A surname:Upgrades are fixed mathematical events with no randomness, and early stalwarts are unlikely to sell ETH. The market has already reacted by saying that the underlying order remains unchanged. But market flows will get faster, market volatility will get bigger, and you have to get used to it in the future.

Yoyo:Personally think Shanghai upgrade event probability will not bring a lot of selling pressure, if there is selling pressure for the market is limited. Because, as everyone said, the users who participated in the early pledge are long-term supporters of Ethereum, while the unlock is gradually released, and the Shanghai upgrade event is a long-term positive event for Ethereum. However, the selling pressure and ETH price fluctuation are two things, which does not rule out the black swan event to the web3 industry.

Chain Research Association:Personally think Shanghai upgrade will still bring selling pressure, but the impact is mainly concentrated in the first two weeks, but after the impact is not big.

In Ethereum's last round, its biggest drop was 95%. Why did it fall so hard? In fact, all the fundraising projects used Ethereum to do ICO in 2017. When these projects were raised, it was Ethereum. When the bear market could not go down, it was actually forced to sell wages, so the selling pressure of Ethereum was very, very serious.

(reference from: https://twitter.com/lianyanshe/status/1612281175455961092?s=20; https://twitter.com/lianyanshe/status/1601054877752643584?s=20).

But this time the upgrade of ethereum and pledge event, it will not sell pressure so big, the price will not be very low in the short term, but it will suppress the price of the upgraded coin. When the selling pressure is digested, the situation turns positive, and then the trading volume and rise of the pledge rate market will be more smooth.

Jason:In the short term, there will be selling pressure, which will have an impact on the market. In the long term, the upgrade is positive. I agree with the view of the chain research Association.

Crypto Jason:Endorsing short - term selling pressure, long - term positive view. From the perspective of individual investors, whether it is selling pressure or positive, volatility is good news for the market, the decline in trading volume is the most terrible thing. Individual investors still need to control the risk according to their own strategy, hedge the risk, observe the market to adjust the shipping space.

4. The recent recovery of the market has brought about the rapid rotation of many sectors. Is there any promising track or project?

0x ow:Large institutions in the stock market game to use the funds to find a breakthrough, resulting in the plate of rapid wheel movement. These plates are not really good, but in advance of speculation. We discovered the emergency and went in too late. I think the future is likely to be hot on the platform L2, other trading platforms may be deployed on a layer 2 network, people can keep an eye on.

Xuan:I mainly share the LSD and L2 tracks from the perspective of research and development. Ethereum has been in a deflationary phase, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the pledge rate. I am more bullish on Ethereum projects are Lido, SSV, FXS. And L2 network has not issued money for the project everyone can continue to follow.

A surname:The overall macro market is not very good, or remain cautious. I recommend matic to upgrade ckevm in March, and content related to SDK EVM. Recently, I mainly focus on the infrastructure plate.

Yoyo:Personally, I am optimistic about the storage track, which is the cornerstone and rigid requirement of web3. At present, it is still in the basic stage, so I recommend Eason storage project here.

Chain Research Association:Personally, I am optimistic about ZK track and LSD track. ZK is related to Shanghai upgrade, and there are several important projects yet to be released, which I think is a great benefit. In addition, I am also optimistic about on-chain derivatives. Regulations in the United States and Hong Kong do not allow on-chain derivatives, but users actually have this demand, so I can pay more attention to it.

Jason:Knowing that the data of the previous FET was still stored on the centralized server, so I paid more attention to the distributed storage track in the short term. In the long term, I'm going to focus on the gamefi space, working on gamefi and metacomes, thinking about how to make web2 games web3.

Crypto Jason:More positive pledge track and L2 track Arbitrum, of course, Arbitrum part of the project should be carefully selected.