Liquidation, regulation and other bearish pressure, bitcoin strong support $20,000 pressure level

2023-03-10 11:04

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Under the influence of multi-bearish news, bears dominate the crypto market.

原文标题：《清算、监管等多方利空打压，比特币强撑 2 万美元压力位》

原文作者： Mary Liu，比推 BitpushNews

Us regulators Sue KuCoin after Silvergate Bank liquidated Such as multi - negative news under the influence of crypto market sentiment deteriorated.

Bitit terminal data shows that, as of this writing, bitcoin. (BTC) fell more than 8% in 24 hours, falling below $21,000 for the first time in seven weeks and hitting a local intraday low of $20,050, its lowest level since Jan. 14, before recovering slightly above $20,250. Ethereum and altcoin markets were also taken apart, with Ethereum down 8% to $1,437 and Binance's BNB down 6%. nbsp; XRP Token down 7.54%, Polygon MATIC fell 8.17 percent.

In the past 24 hours, bitcoin liquidated more than $90 million, of which more than 95 percent were long positions, according to Coinglass.

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More than Twitter previously reported, Silvergate Capital (SI) on Wednesday announced its intention to wind up and voluntarily liquidate Silvergate Bank, shattering one of the most prominent banks in the crypto space. The Bank expects to repay all deposits in full, and KBW analysts said in a note last night that as of Dec. 31, Silvergate Bank had excess cash ($4.6 billion) relative to cryptocurrency deposits ($3.8 billion).

Regulatory repression

The crypto market decline also coincided with news Thursday afternoon that New York Attorney General Letitia James sued KuCoin, accusing the crypto trading platform of offering unregistered securities and commodities. The lawsuit also alleges that Ethereum, Luna and TerraUSD It's all securities.

Notably, there's disagreement at the federal level about whether Ethereum is a security or a commodity, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Gary Gensler Suggesting he thought it was an unregistered security, and the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Rostin Behnam Think of it as a commodity.

Recently, U.S. regulators targeted And BUSD 's enforcement actions, as well as the SEC's crackdown on centralized pledging, have stymied continued bullish momentum across the market, and the crypto regulatory environment remains unclear, with uncertainty often contributing to market volatility.

The downside of Silvergate's demise

The collapse of what was once a pillar of the industry has reduced the incentive for banks to support the crypto ecosystem. Genesis Noelle Acheson, former head of market insight, wrote in her daily newsletter that "sentiment does seem to have weakened, with both the capital rate and the annualized base rate of Binance moving lower".

Traditional banks that want to participate in crypto have to deal with regulatory uncertainty. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at currency market maker Oanda, wrote in a note Thursday: "The crypto industry is now trying to find a new service company to help with payments and other deposit-related services. It's still a tough environment for crypto given the impact of Silvergate Capital."

If more middlemen like Silvergate get into trouble, it will make it hard for crypto companies to expand their money in and out. Stefan Rust, CEO of economic data aggregator Truflation, commented: "The Silvergate crisis will slow down the entry of institutions into the market because they don't have access to money that can scale quickly. It will drive more crypto businesses out of the US."

Expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike are rising

Investors have increased expectations of future interest rate rises in the US. Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the central bank could raise interest rates more aggressively than previously thought, and while Powell stressed that no decision had been made on the March meeting, expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike were building after a recent run of strong economic data.

The ADP jobs report and Wednesday's JOLTS data pointed to resilience in the U.S. economy, with initial jobless claims rising more than expected in the week ended March 4, suggesting the labor market may be starting to slow. Friday's closely watched non-farm payrolls report is also a key variable.

According to CME Group As of March 9, traders were pricing in about a 75% chance of a 50-basis-point rate hike.

The crypto market remains highly correlated with the Dow and S&P 500. The market rally in early 2023 was based on the expectation that the Fed would take a break from raising rates either in the summer or sometime this year, and with Powell's latest comments making it clear that this is not the case, it is no surprise that crypto and U.S. stocks have tumbled.

Next move?

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at currency market maker Oanda, predicted that bitcoin could see further selling pressure, testing the key $20,000 pressure level.

Crypto analyst Ann Mugoiri believes BTC's daily chart shows a bearish crossover with the smoothed Moving average of similarities and differences (MACD) indicator, indicating more losses in the near term. The relative Strength index (RSI) remains lower and stands at 30.15. Any further downward pressure could push it even lower.

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The 50-day index moving average (EMA) is currently at $20,540, while the 200-day EMA is around $20,543, suggesting that the bulls need to take control of the market soon and bring some buying pressure, or prices could continue to move lower.

Overall, technical trend chart analysis suggests that bears are still in control of the market and will remain dominant if bullish momentum is not seen in the near term. Bitcoin has support at $20,837, a break below which could signal further declines for BTC, with upside resistance at the $22,115 level, which could continue to rise if it can be breached.