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The Third anniversary of "312" : Please Revere the market forever and ever

03-12 09:24
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"The industry is so hardcore that each black swan is getting fatter."

March 2023 doesn't seem to be a good time either, as we're still experiencing thunderstorms, this time affecting the industry's second-largest stablecoin, the $40 billion USDC, stunned. Just as we never imagined that LUNA, the world's top five market capitalization, could go to zero overnight, FTX, valued at $32 billion, could go bankrupt overnight, and deleveraging could make an $18 billion super capital disappear overnight. My friend commented, "The industry is too hardcore. Every black swan is getting fatter."


The market is always right, and there is no doubt that the cryptocurrency market, which has been strongly correlated with the US, the US dollar and the US stock market, is no exception. On the third anniversary of "312" (in a way, it is also the official binding of cryptocurrency to the US dollar), BlockBeats once again "revisited" the horrible 24 hours in the market when the market still needs confidence, reminding itself that both bull and bear will always remain in awe of the market.


We go from the point to the surface. Starting at 6:30 p.m. on March 12, 2020, cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin suddenly took a dive, catching everyone off guard. The price of bitcoin started at $7,000 and fell without resistance, at a rate of up to 5% per minute. $6,800, $6,500, $6,000, $5,000, $4,500, smashing everyone's luck along the way. At around 7 o 'clock on Friday, bitcoin fell again after stabilizing briefly, falling as low as 3,800 dollars at one point. Within 24 hours, it had plunged nearly 50%.


According to the data of Coin, within 24 hours, more than 100,000 people were caught in the warehouse explosion on the whole network. The largest single warehouse explosion occurred in Huobi, whose BTC value was about 58.32 million dollars, and the total amount of the warehouse explosion on the whole network was 2.93 billion dollars, about 20.5 billion yuan.


More dramatically, BitMEX, the trading platform with the largest single short position at the time, suspended its trading function on the morning of the 13th, commonly known as "unplugging the network cable". In some ways, this has saved Bitcoin. During the no-resistance fall, there are no orders on BitMEX, and if the cable is not unplugged, the price of bitcoin on the platform will go to zero. At the time, other trading platforms were struggling, and the arbitrage bots had outgrown their work, with the price gap reaching $1,000.


Bitcoin's collapse is not a problem with commodity properties, but a microcosm of the black swan of global financial markets.


Looking at the global macro category of assets, on February 19, 2020, NASDAQ began to fall the next day after reaching the historical high of 9,838, which started the prelude of the whole global market slump. The Nasdaq fell 8.4% in a single day as U.S. stock markets suffered a rare double circuit breaker in a week after expectations of U.S. economic stimulus policies fell short and fears over the novel coronavirus showed.


In this process, the global stock market panic intensified, the three major European stock indexes, the Asia-Pacific stock market have appeared varying degrees of retreat, at least 10 countries stock index circuit breaker, trading suspension, and into the technical bear market.


Commodity markets have seen an even bigger bloodbath. The U.S. crude oil index plunged more than 8 percent on March 6, after falling more than 30 percent on March 7, due to the failure of the OPEC production cut agreement and the change in the supply and demand pattern caused by the economic environment.


The rest of the story is well known. But "312" is a wake-up call. No matter how big a bull market is, not everyone can come home with a bang, awed by the market and forever reminded of the need for risk control. The principal is the capital, is able to survive in the market.

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