Why did Coinbase's former CTO publicly bet that Bitcoin would soar to $1 million in three months?

23-03-20 15:20
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原文标题:《 Coinbase 前 CTO 为何公开押注,比特币将在 3 个月飙升至 100 万美元? 》
Article by Andr Beganski, Decrypt
Felix, PANews

Balaji Srinivasan, former chief technology officer at Coinbase, bet Friday that bitcoin prices will benefit from the rapid depreciation of the dollar over the next three months, soaring to $1 million by June 17. Balaji made a bet with two people on the same day, paying $1 million along with financial expert James Medlock and another anonymous person. If bitcoin does not reach $1 million, the two men will each receive $1 million worth of USDC.

Balaji believes the global economy is at a tipping point of rapid change, which he calls "hyperbitcoin-ization." He predicts that the dollar will enter rapid hyperinflation, and then the global economy will enter the era of rebranding bitcoin as "digital gold."

At current prices, a rise to $1 million would push bitcoin's market value to about $19.3 trillion from about $549 billion today, according to CoinGecko. By comparison, the U.S. stock market was worth just over $40.5 trillion at the end of last year, according to data published by Siblis Research.

Balaji's prediction comes against a backdrop of a series of bank failures in the United States that have injected fear and uncertainty into financial markets. While bitcoin's correlation with stock indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remains significant, some on Twitter are calling it the "great decoupling" given Bitcoin's recent surge above $28,000 as Wall Street falters.

The bold bet has sparked some crypto KOL chatter, including from Bitcoin educator Jimmy Song and venture capitalist Adam Cochran, who have taken a closer look at how realistic the prediction is.

Referring to the performance of cryptocurrencies during the "COVID-19" epidemic in 2020, Cochran said bitcoin would need a more extreme catalyst than that to top its 547% gain between 2020 and 2022.

Coinbase 前 CTO 为何公开押注,比特币将在 3 个月飙升至 100 万美元?

Cochran believes that the collapse of the banking system in the U.S. and Europe will eventually overshadow Bitcoin's potential value as an asset, since money is better spent on food, fuel and so on.

"In short, stores of value or alternative assets do well when we doubt the profitability of the economic system rather than the existence of the system," he says. "If the system does not exist, we reduce demand and spend money on necessities rather than valuables."

Cochran said Balaji's bet comes after the crypto market went into a deep winter, which came last year when prices plummeted and many crypto companies went out of business. The industry has struggled since then, and many in the crypto industry have lost hope for the future, so people are "longing for a turnaround." "It's disappointing to see the crypto industry being driven by unrealistic bets in such a dangerous macro environment," he said.

But other voices, such as Jimmy Song, seem to back Balaji's bet, arguing that bitcoin could play some role in the crisis in today's financial system.

"Bitcoin will play a key role in mitigating some of the catastrophic effects, as a tightly restricted currency offers a better store of value and curbs the effects of hyperinflation," he said.

Coinbase 前 CTO 为何公开押注,比特币将在 3 个月飙升至 100 万美元?

Bloomberg's Matt Levine then asked a straightforward question: If Balaji thinks bitcoin will hit $1 million in 90 days, why would he use that money to bet on bitcoin instead of buying it?

Coinbase 前 CTO 为何公开押注,比特币将在 3 个月飙升至 100 万美元?

In a subsequent tweet, Matt Levine said that based on the responses he had received, Balaji's move could be an attempt to "manipulate Bitcoin's price rise." Others said Balaji could have made the bet but instead used it to gain exposure for himself and bitcoin.

Balaji's net worth is estimated at about $150 million, according to Datawallet. Earn.com, a company he co-founded that rewarded users with digital assets for completing small tasks, joined Coinbase after it was acquired by Coinbase. Balaji worked at Coinbase for about 14 months before leaving in May 2019. Among his accomplishments listed on his LinkedIn profile, he was responsible for organizing the "business and technical aspects" of the USDC Stablecoin launch.

Balaji isn't the only one who thinks bitcoin will hit $1 million. Last January, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest estimated that Bitcoin could surpass $1 million by 2030, saying the Bitcoin network "may grow in size as sovereign states adopt Bitcoin as legal tender."

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