Arbitrum drop after the valuation analysis, can hold?

原文标题：《 Arbitrum 空投后如何交易？ 》

Original article by Flip Research

Original source: Crush, "Biteye" community

The $ARB drop is likely to be one of the hottest drops of the year. But how will it compare in price to previous big airdrops?

In this article, I've compared $ARB to $UNI, $OP, and $1INCH, with some interesting results!

01 Total Token allocation

让我们从总 Token 分配的比较开始，这里我将一些类别做了合并，以便进行更公正的同类比较。

We can draw several observations from this:

$ARB 空投百分比略高。（请注意，$OP 到目前为止只分发了其空投配额约 1/3 的 Token ）

Team + investor allocations are higher than $UNI and $OP, but lower than $1INCH 

The distribution of the Treasury is in line with its peers

Full table:

02 初始 Token 分配

除了总 Token 分配，初始供应分配的比较也有助于衡量初始抛压。$ARB 的初始供应在较高水平，类似于 $UNI。

03 Token 解锁

Token 的初始分配和总分配只是其中一部分数据，而 Token 的解锁计划，则有助于了解 Token 的相对分发速率以及它们来自哪里。

Please note that $UNI, $OP, and $1INCH unlock all come from @coingecko data.

与其同行相比，$ARB 的 Token 解锁计划看起来相对平稳，特别是在第一年。

请注意，这里我假设 $ARB 的国库是线性解锁的（这个假设与 CG 和 TokenTerminal 类似，这些机构通常也会使用线性解锁方式来计算 Token 的发行量），如果没有这种线性解锁方式，那么在第一年将不会有任何的 $ARB Token 发行。

（译者注：如果没有线性解锁， Token 将被锁定一段时间，不能被释放。在这种情况下， Token 的发行量将被推迟到 Token 解锁期开始之后。而如果采用线性解锁方式， Token 的发行量将在解锁期内平均分配，从而使 Token 的流通量逐渐增加。）

04 Distribution Rate

The following is a comparison of short-term distribution rates (excluding Treasury controlled by the DAO), which clearly shows the wide variation in distribution rates between projects. This has big implications for how users should participate in airdrops, which I'll talk about later.

05 Initial price fluctuations

The last part is the price fluctuation of initial airdrop. Let's take a look at the price trend of UNI, OP and 1INCH as the control group after airdrop release. (Chart courtesy of @coingecko)

$UNI

因为高初始供应量，并且没有团队/投资者 Token 悬崖期，UNI 的初始分配速率是这几个项目中最高的。这导致了一定的初始抛压，但是之后价格却上涨超过 10 倍，当然，完美的市场时机也起到了帮助作用。

（译者注： Token 悬崖期是指在这一个期间内，团队和投资者不能立即出售或交易其分配的股份或 Token ，这个期间过后，股份或 Token 会逐渐释放，持有者可以进行交易。旨在激励团队和投资者长期参与项目，并防止他们立即将其股份或 Token 出售。）

$OP

Although OP had a low initial supply, it was offset by its relatively high issuance and bear market on-line, so the initial price was not very desirable.

Still, it recovered relatively quickly from its initial dip before falling during the cryptocurrency winter and then hitting a new all-time high.

$1INCH

1INCH has the lowest initial supply percentage and circulation is relatively low. As a result, after an initial decline, 1INCH quickly recovered and began a sharp rise. Again, market timing is important here.

06 Fundamentals

In terms of Arbitrum fundamentals, Arbitrum One has attracted considerable lock-in value and transaction volume, becoming a specialty area in a financial application chain (similar to $GMX, $GNS, and $RDNT).

It's one of the few monetization chains (source: @tokenterminal), and it's still in its early stages.

07 Conclusion

通过以上分析可知，在这些空投 Token 价格下跌时买入都是盈利的。然而，抓住最低点的时机并不容易。

There are three additional considerations for $ARB:

Relatively high initial flux

但在后续一年的 Token 释放中，排放量较低

The cycle the market is in

综合考虑以上因素，特别是 $ARB 的良好基本面，我打算继续持有我的 $ARB 空投。另外，如果空投发放后， Token 价格下跌，那么我将会分批买入。因为按照上面的分析，我预计 $ARB 将迅速恢复价格，并取得多倍收益。

After the initial sell-off, there really isn't any significant source of selling pressure for at least the first year, so I'm comfortable with this strategy.

Of course, it all depends on the initial pricing of the $ARB, but I expect market forces to play a role here.

不要忽视初始推出时的强劲价格走势对于整个生态系统中的 Token 所带来的影响，这种影响可能会逐渐扩散开来，我预计这种效应将有助于推动整个生态系统的发展。

What do you think the initial price of $ARB will be?

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