Explore the characteristics of 61 hundredfold items to find the next cycle alpha

2023-03-22 20:30

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原文标题：《 61 个百倍项目的特征，寻找下个周期 alpha 》

Original article by Rocky

Original source: SevenUp DAO

In the entire bull market cycle from 2020 (individual 2019) to 2021, 61 projects of the top 600 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization were born.

Today we'll take a look at their features, properties, and implications for our upcoming 2023-2025 cycle! (Due to the data source, some data may be different, please understand, select the secondary market available varieties, except the primary)

1. First let's look at the top 100 currencies in the cryptocurrency market on March 15, 2020. Now look at November 8, 2021, the peak of the market, the cryptocurrency market, the top 100 currencies. How many of them do you know?

Chart of the top 100 cryptocurrencies items on March 15, 2020

Not surprisingly, the vast majority were replaced, at a rate of 67 percent. The next bull market is likely to do the same. Now the top 100 items, the next bull market, often need to be filled with new narratives.

Chart of Top 100 cryptocurrency projects at peak on November 8, 2021.

When I was in the securities Research Institute, my master often told us that investment requires imagination, bold assumptions and careful verification. In the currency circle, I think it is more unrestrained, often tens of hundreds of times, not unrestrained ahead of the idealist.

2. In terms of market value ranking, 61 hundredfold coins (secondary market) were born among the top 600 currencies in market value in March 2020. Among the top 100 currencies in terms of market value, there are 11 currencies, accounting for 18%, which are #BNB,#LINK,#ADA,#DOGE,#VET,#SNX,#SOL,#THETA,#HOT,#ENJ, and #LUNA. The old currency has a new narrative and is also a new growth breakout point. For example, BNB and BSC chains are separated from the single Token attribute of trading platform

Among the top 100-300 currencies in market value, 21 hundred-hundredfold coins were born, accounting for 34.4%. Of the top 300 to 600 currencies, 22 were born, accounting for 36%. And seven, too low to capture data. So as a whole, among the top 300 in market value, a total of 32 hundredfold coins were born, accounting for 10.6% of the whole, one out of ten.

3. From the perspective of investment institutions, there are only 9 available institutional investments. The ratio is low. The main analysis shows that at that time, the fundraising method of cryptocurrency still applies the traditional ICO logic of 17 years, with fewer institutional players. In addition, due to the limited secondary market screening logic, many projects have not yet issued coins. At that time, institutions such as: #Multicoin #Polychain #Alameda #BN #A16Z, later also become the top cryptocurrency capital!

4. In terms of unlocked circulation. Mc-concentrated distribution in the range of 40%-60%, not full circulation is good, not very little circulation is good. This is a strange phenomenon and cannot be falsified. I have no good reason to convince myself (welcome discussion). High probability is related to birth time, mostly born in 18,19,20 years.

5. From the establishment time of the project. Of the 100 times projects, 76% were set up during the 18-20 bear market, while only 24% were set up before 2017 (the previous cycle). 200 times more projects: 85% were created in 2018, 2019, 2020. Only 1.7 percent of 100 times projects were created late in the bull market (2021). So by that logic, a '22,' 23 program, pay more attention.

6. 从 Token 单价来看，普遍大家比较喜欢单价便宜的品种，单价越低，往往从主观上给人同等单位 USDT，可换回更多的项目 Token ，让人比较有成就感或者快感。这是一个奇怪的现象，但事实却摆在这里。或许便于 CX...

7. The optimal configuration time, the low point of one hundred times the currency, basically synchronize with the low point of BTC, and the high point of one hundred times the currency, basically synchronize with the high point of BTC. From the current situation, double dip, 15000 or below 15000, the probability is the best copycat purchase time point. I expect the big pie in the US financial crisis, the forecast low may be 9,800, but you never know. Do a good job of strategy, batch position.

8. Circuit classification, 100 times the number of coins belong to the public chain at most, a total of 17, accounting for 27.8%. There are 14 in L1, 2 in L2, and 1 in L0. Comments: In the last cycle, in order to solve the pain points of ETH expansion, TPS, GAS fees and so on, similar to the 17-year bull market, a hundred schools of thought appeared in the public chain, some of which were born #SOL, #MATIC, #BNB and other high-performance public chains, bringing prosperity to our cryptocurrency market!

From the perspective of investment, the investment public chain is the choice with the highest fault tolerance rate. There are so many ecological applications, survival and decay. However, as long as this public chain grows some super applications, it can survive for a long time, so investors flock to it. From this point of view, there will be a hundred times the probability of public chains in the future in L2, L0, privacy public chains. It doesn't really make sense to do L1 anymore. L2 is a good choice for current OP, ARB, or future ZK

L0 addresses the underlying interoperability, ATOM and Layerzero fall into this category. I had great expectations for DOT, mainly trusting Gavin Wood, but the slots made many projects shy away and slowly closed.

Privacy public chain has always been a promising direction for me. I have been discussing the vision of the next DEFI SUMMER, which is the prosperity of credit + derivatives. Our modern finance is based on credit, and the birth of blockchain credit will enlarge the scale of cryptocurrency market 1000 times. And the privacy chain is indispensable, available but not visible.

From the current privacy public chain basically each of the hundreds of millions of scale of financing, can be seen.

At present, I am optimistic about two things. One is #ALEO (unissued currency), ZK technology, complete infrastructure construction, including my own development tools. The other is #ROSE TEE Technology, Professor Song's project, which is essentially throwing people.

9. GAMEFI has the second hundred coins, with five, accounting for 8.2%. GAME has always been a battleground for traditional WEB2 warriors, with Tencent NetEase and Miha You. This is the track that makes the most money and the most traffic. It is also the best educational tool to cultivate users outside the circle to enter WEB3. Only when the consensus is strong and the market value of cryptocurrency keeps reaching a new high, can institutions cash out at a better price. So institutions are also willing to invest, naturally is the hot spot in the hot spot.

There are super apps like #AXS, #GMT, and there are game chains like #IMX, #RON. Some do the whole ecosystem, like #GALA, #MAGIC. There are many paths to choose from. This track is likely to produce 100 times the most money in the next cycle. Here, I mined a few hundred times the probability of the next cycle coin game varieties, can be private to me.

10. The third is cross-chain, IOT (Internet of Things), DEFI and MEME coins. There were 3, accounting for 4.9% respectively. In these directions, the Internet of Things is likely to do nothing in the next cycle. Cross-chain is just needed, and there will certainly be one or two king memes. The way is to do more on-chain analysis, the correlation between addresses, and the ability to catch whales. This can be expanded later, combined with tools

DEFI should also be the top three racetracks in the next cycle, producing 100 times the money. Among them, I focus on: DEFI in the direction of derivatives, algorithm stablecoin direction, credit direction, NFT lending, NFT liquidity, CRV ecology, these areas have a high probability of birth of hundreds of currency varieties. Fortunately, these projects are here and growing, and they are worth looking forward to.