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On-chain data for the 19th week: short-term liquidity weakens, willingness to hold coins increases
Summarized by AI
Original title: "The bright moon is shining brightly, Xing Han Xiliu｜WTR 5.01"
Original source: "WTR" Research Institute
This Week in Review
This week from April From 25th to May 1st, Bingtang orange had a maximum of $29898 and a minimum of $27176, with a fluctuation of about 10%.
Observe the chip distribution chart, around $28829 a large number of chips are traded, and there will be certain support or pressure.
• Analysis:
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1, $25000 ~ $31000 about 2.45 million pieces;
2, $18500 ~ $24500 about 2.75 million pieces;
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• The probability of not falling below 18000 ~ 22000 in the short term is 69%.
Important news
Economic news
1. The annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the first quarter of the United States was 1.1 %, lower than the expected value of 2%, lower than the previous value of 2.6%.
a. In the 10 years before the outbreak of the epidemic, the annual GDP growth rate of the United States was about 2.2%. JPMorgan Chase said that the GDP in the second quarter will shrink by 0.4%.
2. The US March PCE price index rose by 4.2% year-on-year, higher than the expected value of 4.1%, lower than the previous value of 5.0%; the month-on-month increase of 0.1% was in line with expectations.
a. The core PCE price index increased by 4.6% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the expected value of 4.5%, and the previous value was revised up to 4.7%; the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, unchanged from the previous value and Expected value.
b. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index was 0.3%, in line with expectations of 0.3%, unchanged from the previous value of 0.3%.
3. In April, the final value of the University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectation remained at the level of the initial value of 4.6%, exceeding the value of 3.6% in March;
a. Five-year inflation expectations rose from 2.9% to 3%, the first increase in five months.
4. The US M2 money supply (not seasonally adjusted) in March was US$20.7 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.05%, the largest year-on-year decrease in history.
a. It fell 2.3% in February and 1.62% in January. March was the fourth consecutive month that the money supply contracted.
5. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 101.3 in April, and the Consumer Expectation Index dropped to 68.1, both the lowest levels since last month.
6. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is preparing to include First Republic Bank in its custody list.
7. The prices of U.S. oil and Brent oil fell overall this week, and the price of gold continued to fluctuate.
Encrypted ecological news
1. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said: It is hoped that banks will obtain appropriate Partnering with licensed cryptocurrency companies to help them open bank accounts. Banks should support the "legitimate need for bank accounts" of licensed crypto firms.
2. Hong Kong will issue licensing guidelines for cryptocurrency trading platforms in May.
3. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives proposed a new draft of stablecoin legislation, hoping to move the stablecoin out of the power of the SEC. This legislation will deprive the agency of jurisdiction over the payment of stablecoins power to transfer power over stablecoins to federal and state banks and credit union regulators.
4. The British Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) hopes to work with cryptocurrency companies to develop regulations. FCA may set up new rules for cryptocurrency companies, including overseas companies. authorization system.
5. The French Financial Market Authority (AMF) stated that existing encryption companies can obtain a "fast track system" for the new European encryption rules. Prepare for MiCA, the European Union's market law for cryptoassets.
6. Encryption platform CB: sued the US SEC in federal court, requiring the SEC to use its formal rule-making process to provide guidance for the cryptocurrency industry.
7. Dalio of Bridgewater Fund: Although he prefers gold, Bitcoin can provide things that gold cannot provide, such as transaction tracking, etc., and it was not sold during the bear market , is still held.
8. Tiger Securities (Hong Kong), a subsidiary of Tiger International, announced the launch of cash management services and intends to apply for a virtual asset trading platform license in Hong Kong.
9. Grand View Research released the "2022-2030 Cryptocurrency Industry Data Book", and the global cryptocurrency industry will reach $400.9 billion in 2021. From 2022 to The compound annual growth rate in 2030 will reach 26.8%.
Long-term insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term investigation:It is used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation: is used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions
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Long term insight
Anxiety detector
Increase and decrease of chips on the chain
Computing power valuation model
• Americas Purchasing Power
This week, we will analyze the current long-term pattern from all aspects.
(Spot total selling pressure)
The selling pressure of macro spot is at a historical low.
From the perspective of historical cycles, generally this kind of selling pressure is mostly a periodic bottom from a long-term perspective.
(Unrest Detector)
A rising green-blue line represents more defensiveness and restlessness.
Unrest and panic in the market Emotions continue to spread, and more participants are still willing to put more coins in their hands on a more stable pie or conduct more stable transactions.
The current time period is for high There are not many participants in the pursuit of risk and excess returns.
(Increase and decrease of chips on the chain)
More UTXOs are being created, that is, chips.
This timeline was in 2015 The end of the year is somewhat similar to the middle of 2019.
Potentially more Participants are building more chips, or more entrants are quietly joining.
(computing power valuation model)
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This model is based on the difficulty of computing power and empiricism to create an indicator similar to the traditional capital market's price-earnings ratio.
It's not perfect , but in the end it brings more references.
The purple line is the main estimate value line, an exorbitant rise represents a large deviation from the standard deviation.
Represents in the traditional sense expensive.
Lower Purple Line means more valuable.
currently underestimated range of value space.
(Americas Purchasing Power)
Many people want to see 2019 This year is like a re-promotion of that small bull market.
But purchasing power from the Americas Looking at it, it is relatively inferior, and its purchasing power is not as strong as before.
Just have weak purchasing power , which might be disappointing, but it's worth paying attention to.
Mid-term exploration
Risk Observation Model-1
Address for new students
Circulation of key stablecoins
On-chain risk observation rating: short-term liquidity weakens, willingness to hold currency increases
(short-term profit percentage composite model)
Blue area: net illiquid supply position
Yellow line: supply of short-term participants
From the above model we can see:
1. When the market is in a turbulent stage, the illiquid supply groups in the market choose to undertake and change hands;
< p line="hnLp" ql-global-para="true">2. Short-term participants are investing in reducing supply , it may be that in the current uncertain market, there is a big difference in the choices of the two groups. At the same time, it also indirectly reflects the current problem of insufficient liquidity, which may increase market volatility at that time.
3. The current market The main problem is the ability to undertake profit orders in the market.
(Risk Observation Model-1)
Blue line: full network deposit coefficient
Yellow line: mixed currency
About chain The basic risk insight on the Internet can be developed from two perspectives:
1. When a large-scale deposit action occurs on the chain, it may cause unacceptable pressure on the market, resulting in a relatively large drop in price;
2. Observe that there is a large degree of The outflow may be the sight of a group with an unknown address or a large number of players detecting on the confusion chain, so as to achieve the purpose of covert selling.
From the above risk observation model, we can know:
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Currently, no large-scale deposits have occurred, and the coin mixer is also in a relatively quiet range.
But this model can help Participants are better able to prevent larger-scale risks in the field.
On-site Status rating: new addresses decrease, partial stock
(Freshman address)
Yellow line: rock sugar orange Address for new students
Green Line: USDT freshman address
blue line : USDC freshman address
field The new addresses in the market are in a state of collective decline, which may also be the key to the recent market shocks;
Combined with the observation of the supply of short-term participants, it may be that the market is experiencing a decrease in liquidity,
It may be necessary to test the ability of the market to support profit groups at this time, and it is also necessary to Conduct in-depth investigations on loss selling from time to time.
Get real-time data to follow WTR Official Twitter @WtrCrypto
(total circulation of stablecoins)
The total circulation of key stablecoins is hovering in a partial stock range, because it itself represents the purchasing power and increment on the market;
The incremental environment has a good effect on promoting and promoting the market.
Maybe the market will go out of the current The status of the stable currency still needs to be improved and repaired.
Short term observation
Risk coefficient of derivatives
Option Intention to Transaction Ratio
Derivatives Volume
Options Implied Volatility
Profit Loss Transfer Amount
Add Address and Active Address
Bingtang Orange trading platform net position
Aunt Trading Platform Net Position
High weight selling pressure
State of Ball Purchasing Power
Stablecoins Trading platform net position
chain Download exchange data
< b> Derivatives Rating: Rising back to the edge of the safe zone, the risk has declined.
(Risk coefficient of derivatives)
The risk coefficient fell back to the dangerous area last week, and the price fell. This week, the risk factor rose to the edge of the safe zone, indicating that the liquidation pressure of bulls and the risk of derivatives have eased. However, combined with other indicators and sentiment analysis, the risk factor is still likely to rise this week.
(option intention turnover ratio)
With last week's price The shock callback. Options trading volume and the proportion of put options declined moderately. Put options are currently at moderate levels.
(derivatives trading volume)
Last week’s price fluctuation At the same time, the trading volume of derivatives also fluctuated sharply. Judging from the current trading volume, the willingness of derivatives traders to bet is average.
(option implied volatility)
option implied volatility The rate has increased slightly, indicating a slight increase in the activity and willingness of option traders in the current market.
Emotional State Rating: overall wait and see cautious
(Profit and loss transfer amount)
Current loss transfer amount and profit transfer volumes are at a low level. Among them, the loss transfer volume has continued the downward trend of last week as a whole. If the loss transfer volume remains relatively low this week, it will be a relatively positive signal for the market.
(new address and active address)
With price The callback, the number of new and active addresses has dropped significantly, and the overall number is at a low-to-medium position, indicating that the current level of market activity has relatively declined.
Spot and throw Pressure structure rating: There is no excessive inflow and outflow accumulation, and the overall selling pressure is small.
(Tang Tang Orange Trading Platform Net Position)
At the current price, the net position of Bing Tang Orange Trading Platform It is in a state of accumulation of small outflows, indicating that the selling pressure in the spot market is relatively small.
(net position of E-Trading platform)
E-Trading The net position of the platform is in a state of accumulation of small inflows.
Short-term large number of charts The inflow may be the Binance Staked E wallet, which provides withdrawal services to customers, and is not included in short-term heavy selling pressure.
(high weight selling pressure)
Currently there is no high weight selling pressure.
Purchasing Power Rating: The global purchasing power is weak, and the purchasing power of stablecoins continues to lose.
(Global Purchasing Power Status)
The loss of purchasing power in Europe has slowed down, and the purchasing power of Asia and America has increased briefly Weakness and sluggishness with price pullbacks.
(USDC trading platform net position)
Although there are signs of slight inflows, overall the net position of the USDC trading platform is in a state of loss.
(USDT trading platform net position)
USDT is the same as USDC , are in the lost state.
Off-chain Transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at the price of 28,000, and there is a willingness to sell at the price of 30,000.
Coinbase off-chain data
There is a willingness to sell at the price of 30000;
Binance off-chain data
There is a willingness to buy at the price of 28000 and 28200;
There is a willingness to sell at 29100, 29900, and 30000.
Bitfinex off-chain data
There is a willingness to sell at the price of 28750.
This week’s summary
Message Summary:
1. The US core PCE price index in March met expectations, but still exceeded the Fed’s target. Employment in the first quarter A surprise acceleration in the cost index added to market expectations for a Fed rate hike.
2. The First Republic Bank, which is at the latest cusp, will become another U.S. regional bank that has failed after Silicon Valley Bank and New York Signature Bank.
3. The rate shock is being transmitted to the financial system on a large scale. Regional banks may not be able to afford a more aggressive rate strategy.
4. The Federal Reserve shrinks its balance sheet , M2 continues to decline, which not only prompts inflation to continue to cool, but also threatens economic growth.
5. Various economic data It shows that the recession in the United States is becoming more and more obvious. The market is worried that raising interest rates blindly may lead to more serious problems, and various institutions are calling for a pause in raising interest rates.
6. Follow the upcoming The interest rate decision and the Federal Reserve Chairman's monetary policy statement.
Long-term insights on the chain:
2. The security sentiment is still spreading, and most of the participants have turned to a defensive state, maintaining risk avoidance and Dislike;
3, TXO The speed at which data chips are created on the chain has been greatly increased. Similar to 2015 and 2019, more chips have been added to the market;
4. The computing power model shows that it is currently undervalued;
5. The purchasing power of the Americas still maintains a certain positive feedback, but it has weakened compared to before.
Market setting: spot market Relatively stable, with little selling pressure. Need to digest the impact of emotions.
Interim detection on the chain:
2. There is currently no black swan-level callback signal;
3. New addresses decrease;
4. Purchasing power is biased towards stock.
Market setting: current market The most unstable thing is that it is caught in the stock environment and the liquidity is weakened. At the same time, with the increase in the willingness to hold currency on the market, it may take a certain amount of time for the market to truly stabilize or get out of confusion.
On-chain short-term observation:
2. The number of newly added active addresses has dropped significantly, and the level of market activity has dropped considerably.
3. Overall market sentiment Wait and see carefully;
4. The trading platform data shows that there is no excessive inflow and outflow accumulation of chips, and the overall selling pressure is small;
5. The global purchasing power is weak, and the purchasing power of stablecoins continues to lose;
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 28,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 30,000.
7. Short-term decline The probability of not breaking 18000 ~ 22000 is 69%
Market setting tone: At present, the market activity is average, and the overall sentiment continues to wait and see cautiously, with no obvious trend direction.
Strategy suggestion: narrow Regional trading or hedging against market uncertainty risks.
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