Simple data analysis: How to determine the top of a copycat coin?

日月小楚

2023-05-29 16:09

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Source: Riyue Xiaochu

For the counterfeit currency industry, top judgment is extremely important. It often leads to quick wealth and quick decline, which is very frustrating.

After researching for the past few days, I found that the deviation between the holder quantity and the coin price is a good sign of the top.

Take LIDO as an example, it rose from 0.9 to 3.3. Then at the top, as shown in the red box in the picture, there was a serious deviation between the holder and the coin price. Specifically, the number of holders soared (retail investors FOMO), but the coin price experienced a significant decline. So, why did the coin price fall when a large number of retail investors were buying? There is only one truth, the whale is selling.

The same thing happened in PEPE on May 5th, when the price of PEPE experienced a large pullback. However, the number of holders increased significantly, indicating that only a few large dog holders were selling. Looking at the following days, the number of PEPE holders decreased, indicating that both dog funds and some retail investors were selling, and there were no new retail investors coming in to take over, so PEPE is a huge bounce.

The same thing happened with LADYS. A few days before May 16th, Holder grew rapidly, but the coin price fell. It is also typical for retail investors to FOMO into the market and for the dog gang to sell off.

When analyzing, it is important to note that a significant increase in holder recognition followed by a decrease in coin price can be a signal of a top. Holders typically increase naturally under normal circumstances, so slow growth cannot be used as an indicator.

Finally, here are a few websites recommended for checking holder changes.

1. Watchers (can only view the tokens it has indexed) https://watchers.pro/user/referral?referralcode=fLjhuIHL Search for the corresponding token or project name.

2、Tokenterminal https://tokenterminal.com

3, Glassnode (can only view the tokens it has indexed) http://glassnode.com The advantage is that it has multiple data dimensions for tokens, but the disadvantage is that it supports the fewest number of tokens and requires payment.

4. Dune https://dune.com Data platform, with data dashboards created by others. Various types of data are available. The downside is that you need to search and find them yourself.