Original author: Checkmate, Glassnode

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

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Bitcoin is famous for its price volatility, but currently the market is experiencing extreme volatility compression.

The futures market is noticeably stable, with trading volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching historic lows. Spot trading and arbitrage yields are at 5.3%, slightly higher than the risk-free rate.

The implied volatility of the options market is experiencing significant volatility compression, with the volatility premium being less than half of the 2021-22 benchmark.

The put/call ratio and 25-delta skewness indicator are both at historical lows, indicating a bullish bias in the options market, while the pricing of put options suggests very low future volatility.

一个平静的时期

translates to

A Calm Period

The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a very calm period, with many volatility indicators at historic lows. In this article, we will explore the extraordinary nature of this quiet period from a historical perspective, and then discuss how the derivatives market is pricing it.

First of all, we notice that the spot price of Bitcoin is higher than some widely observed long-term moving averages in the industry (111 days, 200 days, 365 days, and 200 weeks). The range of these averages is from a low of $23,300 (200 DMA) to a high of $28,500 (111 DMA). The chart also highlights similar periods in the past two cycles, which tend to be consistent with macro upward trends.

We can use on-chain implementation of prices to observe very similar situations, which simulate the cost basis of three groups:

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