Original Title: "Spring River Moonlight, Yanyan Follows the Waves | WTR 1.22"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

From January 15th to January 22nd this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $43578, and the lowest was close to $41659, with a fluctuation range of about 7.19%. Observing the distribution of chips, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 41000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 39000-43000, approximately 2.37 million pieces.

2. 34000~38000, approximately 1.2 million pieces;

• The probability of not breaking below 36,000-38,000 in the short term is 75%.

• The probability of not breaking through 45000-47000 in the short term is 65%.

Important News

Economic News

1. The US released data showing that the initial jobless claims for the week were 187,000, lower than the expected value of 207,000 and lower than the previous value of 202,000. It is the lowest since the week of September 24, 2022.

2. The Atlanta Fed raised its forecast for US fourth-quarter GDP from 2.2% to 2.4%. The Nasdaq index ended its decline and opened up 0.8%, while the S&P 500 information technology sector hit a new all-time high.

3. Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said at Davos that the United States may have already passed the inflation peak, and it is not unimaginable that the Fed's interest rate cuts will be faster than current market pricing. Corporate activity may rebound this year, and the market is ready to rise.

4. US 1-year inflation expectations for January were 2.9%, lower than the expected value of 3.10% and lower than the previous value of 3.10%, marking the lowest level since 2020.

5. Federal Reserve's Gulbis said: If the speed of inflation decline is faster than expected, it may cut interest rates early, but policymakers should not promise any interest rate cut time.

6. UBS stated that economic growth and continuously increasing corporate profits will support a further moderate rise in the stock market.

Encryption Ecology News

1. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal.eth stated that the SEC cannot unilaterally expand and redefine its regulatory scope, and that legislative discussions on the current regulatory framework should be decided by Congress. We look forward to a decision from the court that can bring clarity to the industry.

2. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas released data showing that GBTC's negative premium is 0.472%, which has significantly narrowed compared to the previous day's 0.8%.

3. BlackRock and Fidelity drove early integration of this new asset, capturing 68% of the market's inflows into nine new ETFs. Tether purchased $380 million worth of BTC again at the end of last quarter, bringing their total holdings to 66,465 BTC.

4. GreyScale CEO stated that the 1.5% management fee charged by GBTC is reasonable, based on the company's "scale, liquidity, and performance record".

5. Fidelity became the second BTC spot ETF issuer to attract net inflows of over $1 billion. Of the 11 ETFs, 10 attracted a total of nearly $3.4 billion in inflows, while Grayscale recorded $2.2 billion in outflows and the spot ETF had a net inflow of approximately $1.2 billion.

6. Apart from the slightly tired-looking grayscale, all other ETF products have rebounded, and ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes "this is a good sign".

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral state

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain circumstances.

Long-term Insight

• Participants of various sizes

Derivative Rating: Risk factor is in the neutral zone, derivative risk is moderate.

(Derivative Risk Factor as shown in the figure below)

The risk factor has been consistently in the neutral zone, and the current clearing volume of derivatives is at an extremely low level. The risk factor may continue to fluctuate or briefly fall under this sustained volatility.

(The following chart shows the ratio of option intention to transaction)

The put protection ratio level has not changed significantly and remains at a moderate level. Option trading volume has increased slightly.

(Derivative trading volume in the figure below)

The trading volume of derivatives has been consistently low.

(The implied volatility of options in the following figure)

The implied volatility is expected to experience a significant decrease in the short term.

Emotional State Rating: Neutral

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)

The cost for short-term holders is currently 37K. At present, there is still no large-scale selling of chips at a loss, and combined with the chip accumulation chart, chips are continuously accumulating near 41K. This week is consistent with last week, and we continue to pay attention to the selling situation of chips at a loss.

(新增地址和活跃地址)

Note: The above content contains HTML tags and English characters, which should not be translated.

Newly added and active addresses are at a low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in a state of moderate inflow accumulation, with moderate selling pressure.

(Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the figure below)

Recently, due to the grayscale sell-off, Bitcoin has suffered significant selling pressure, and there is still some selling pressure accumulated in the exchange at present.

(Net position of E-Too Exchange in the following figure)

Unlike Dabing, Erbing is currently experiencing a large outflow.

(High Weight Throw Pressure in the figure below)

There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has all flowed into negative values, with stablecoin purchasing power slightly recovering.

(Global purchasing power status in the following figure)

The current global purchasing power has all flowed into negative values.

(Net position of USDT exchange shown below)

Net position of USDT exchanges saw a slight inflow.

Chain off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 40000; willing to sell at 45000.

(下图 Coinbase 链下数据)

(Coinbase off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 38000, 39000, and 40000; there is a willingness to sell at prices around 47000, 48000, 49000, and 50000.

(下图 Binance 链下数据)

Translation:

(The following image shows Binance off-chain data)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 38000, 39000, and 40000; there is a willingness to sell at prices around 44000, 45000, 46000, and 48000.

(下图 Bitfinex 链下数据)

Translation:

(The following is Bitfinex off-chain data)

There is a willingness to buy at the price range of 39000-40000, and a willingness to sell at the price range of 47000.

7. The probability of not breaking below 36000-38000 in the short term is 75%; the probability of not rising above 45000-47000 in the short term is 65%.

• Market tone: Short-term market activity and purchasing power are both low, and market sentiment remains neutral. With chip supply and demand unchanged this week, there may be a temporary short squeeze or a volatile adjustment.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群：

Telegram 订阅群：https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群：https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号：https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia