Original Title: "Layer upon layer of greenery, rising up to the sky | WTR 2.05"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

From January 29th to February 5th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $43882, and the lowest was close to $41804, with a fluctuation range of about 4.97%. Observing the distribution of chips, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 42000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 39000-43000, about 2.39 million pieces;

2. 34000~38000, approximately 1.56 million coins.

• The probability of not breaking below 36,000-38,000 in the short term is 75%.

• The probability of not breaking through 45000-47000 in the short term is 65%.

Important News

Economic News

1. The "megaphone" Nick Timiraos of the Federal Reserve said that the Federal Reserve is concerned about the actual interest rate being too high. This week, members of the Federal Reserve may take a symbolic and important step by no longer stating in their statement that the possibility of interest rate increases is greater than that of decreases. 2. The Federal Reserve's most favored core inflation indicator (PCE) has fallen to 2.9%, officially entering the 2.0% range.

3. Last week, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.1%, setting a new historical high for two consecutive weeks. The Nasdaq index rose by 0.9%, and the Dow Jones index rose by 0.65% and set a new high.

Encryption Ecology News

1. CFTC Director Rostin Behnam stated that after approving the spot BTCETF, regulatory agencies need to supervise the cryptocurrency industry because this does not mean that the industry is regulated.

2. Crypto Quant founder Ki Young stated that the inflow of BTC into the accumulation wallets has reached a peak in the past 5 years, currently holding 1.7 million BTC, including transactions held by custody services such as Coinbase.

3. ETF Store President Nate Geraci said: Cathay Financial will join the spot BTC ETF competition, which is almost a foregone conclusion, and it is better to act sooner rather than later.

4. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that when Jiaxin Wealth Management enters the market with lower fees and 30 million active brokerage accounts, it will have a significant impact.

Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral state

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight

• Purchasing power in the Americas

(The following image shows purchasing power in the Americas)

The purchasing power of the Americas plays a relatively important role in determining the direction, as it can reflect the premium level and demand of the Americas in terms of price performance.

Previously, there was a significant premium on purchasing power in the Americas, but recently it has entered a relatively sluggish state.

(The following chart shows the position of the whale)

The giant whales are deeply divided among themselves.

(Derivative Risk Factor as shown in the figure below)

Consistent with last week's expectations, there was sustained volatility. The risk factor this week has come close to the safety zone, forming a certain amount of downward pressure.

(The following chart shows the ratio of option intention to transaction)

The put protection ratio level has not changed significantly and remains at a moderate level. The trading volume of options has decreased significantly.

(Derivative trading volume in the figure below)

The trading volume of derivatives has been consistently low.

(The implied volatility of options in the figure below)

The implied volatility has not changed significantly in the short term and has continued to decline.

Emotional State Rating: Neutral

(Profit and loss transfer volume in the figure below)

The current cost for short-term holders is 39K. The current price is getting closer and closer to the short-term holder cost line, and looking at the chip chart, a large number of chips have accumulated at the current price level. We should continue to pay attention to the transfer of loss chips in the future.

(新增地址和活跃地址)

Translation:

(New addresses and active addresses)

Newly added and active addresses are at a low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in a state of accumulated outflow, with relatively low selling pressure.

(Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the following figure)

The chips that were previously accumulated in the exchange have now basically all flowed out. Currently, there is a large amount of outflow accumulation.

(Net position of E-Too Exchange in the following figure)

There is currently a large outflow of Erbings.

(High-weight throw pressure in the figure below)

There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power is still in a state of erosion, with stablecoin purchasing power experiencing a slight loss.

(Global purchasing power status as shown below)

Global purchasing power has remained relatively stable with little change from last week, and is essentially in a state of complete loss, but the degree of loss has not continued to expand sustainably.

(Net Position of USDT Exchange as shown in the following figure)

Net position of USDT exchanges has slightly decreased.

Chain off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 38500; willing to sell at 44000.

(下图 Coinbase 链下数据)

Translation:

(Coinbase off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 44000, 45000, 48000, and 50000.

(下图 Binance 链下数据)

(Binance off-chain data in the following figure)

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

2. The situation of accumulated users has not been significantly repaired, and short-term participants are actively supporting the market.

3. The overall state of the exchange is biased towards accumulation.

Neutral

On-chain Short-term Observation:

2. The number of active addresses has increased compared to the low level.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.

5. Global purchasing power is still in a state of erosion, and stablecoin purchasing power has experienced a slight loss.

6. Under-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to purchase at 38,500 and a willingness to sell at 44,000.

7. The probability of not breaking below 36000-38000 in the short term is 75%; the probability of not rising above 45000-47000 in the short term is 65%.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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