Original Title: "Moonlight Shines, River Reflects | WTR 2.19"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

From February 12th to February 19th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was near $52,816 and the lowest was close to $47,710, with a fluctuation range of about 10%. Observing the distribution of chips, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 42,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 39000-43000, approximately 2.17 million pieces.

2. 34000~38000, approximately 1.54 million pieces;

• The probability of not breaking below 41000~43000 in the short term is 90%.

• The probability of not breaking through 51000-53000 in the short term is 67%.

Important News

Economic News

1. The People's Bank of China "did not cut interest rates": extended 500 billion yuan of MLF excess funds, with unchanged interest rates.

2. The central bank's supervisory media: there is still room for downward adjustment of loan interest rates, and the February LPR may be further lowered separately, with a greater possibility of a decline in LPR for a period of over 5 years.

3. The US January PPI exceeded expectations across the board, with core PPI accelerating year-on-year and service costs showing a significant increase.

4. After inflation reignites, multiple senior officials from the Federal Reserve have spoken out, and the voting committee still expects a rate cut in the summer, with two to three rate cuts expected within the year.

5. OpenAI's GPT-3 model, Sora, has caused a sensation in the technology industry. Musk said that humans may lose to AI, but humans enhanced by AI will create the best works.

6. OpenAI cancels daily limits for GPT-4 Turbo.

7. President Bostic of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in the United States: My expectation is that the Federal Reserve will begin to normalize monetary policy in the summer of 2024.

Encryption Ecology News

1. The ETH client team plans to release the final version of Dencun later next week, and the expected activation date for the Dencun upgrade on the mainnet is March 13th.

2. Due to the launch of a new AI system called Sora by OpenAI, the tokens of the AI sector have seen a general rise in prices.

3. Alameda still holds the 25 million WLD received in August last year, which is currently worth $167 million.

4. AVAX (Avalanche) will unlock 9.54 million tokens worth approximately $379 million at 16:00 on February 22, accounting for 2.6% of the circulating supply.

5. ID (SPACE ID) will unlock 18.49 million tokens worth approximately $11.58 million, accounting for 4.29% of the circulating supply, at 16:00 on February 22nd.

6. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have a floating profit of over $4 billion.

Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral state

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight

• Add and destroy chips

• Net position of US encrypted ETF

• New addresses and active addresses

• Net position of Auntie Exchange

• High-weight selling pressure

• Stablecoin exchange net position

• Off-chain exchange data

Derivative Rating: The risk factor is in the danger zone, and the risk of derivatives is relatively high.

(Derivative Risk Coefficient as shown in the figure below)

The market performance is basically consistent with last week's expectations. The risk factor has decreased for the second time, leading to short selling. However, the clearing volume is not large. This week's expectations are consistent with last week's, with a tendency towards oscillation or a small decrease in short selling.

(The following chart shows the ratio of option intention to transaction)

The put protection ratio has increased rapidly. The trading volume of options has also increased moderately.

(Derivative trading volume in the figure below)

The trading volume of derivatives is at a low level after the market is squeezed.

(The implied volatility of options in the figure below)

The implied volatility has not changed much in the short term.

Emotional State Rating: Slightly FOMO

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the following figure)

The current short-term holder cost is 42K. When the price reaches 50K, the profit transfer representing positive sentiment also reaches a relatively high point, and positive sentiment has declined. There may be a volatile adjustment at the current price. Continue to pay attention to the transfer of loss chips.

(新增地址和活跃地址)

(New addresses and active addresses)

Newly added and active addresses are at a low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in a state of accumulated outflow, with relatively low selling pressure.

(Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the following figure)

The current state of Da Bing is in a state of significant outflow accumulation.

(Net position of E-Too Exchange in the following figure)

The current outflow of Erbings is continuing in large quantities.

(High Weight Throw Pressure in the figure below)

There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Compared to last week, global purchasing power has rebounded significantly, while stablecoin purchasing power remains stable.

(Global purchasing power status as shown in the figure below)

This week, the purchasing power of Asia, Europe, and America has all rebounded significantly, and the purchasing power of the three continents has almost recovered in the same period. The purchasing power of America, which has a higher proportion weight, has rebounded the most, which coincides with the continuous net inflow of purchasing power of ETFs.

(Net position of USDT exchange shown below)

In the modern era, economy only occurs in places where technology is developed, and technology development requires infrastructure construction.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. The addition of on-chain chips has decreased, but the chip structure has not undergone significant changes and has instead entered a period of calmness.

3. The giant whale still maintains its buying and holding.

• Market tone:

The on-chain situation has not changed much, and the US ETF maintains its market leadership and dominant position in guiding the market.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

2. Long-term participants present a selling structure curve, and the on-site structure undergoes complex changes;

4. The overall trend is still a decrease in selling pressure.

The on-site growth effect has slowed down, and the overall trend is towards reducing selling pressure.

On-chain short-term observation:

2. The number of active addresses has increased compared to the low level.

3. Market sentiment rating: leaning towards FOMO.

6. Under-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at a price of 45000; a willingness to sell at a price of 53000.

7. The probability of not breaking below 41000~43000 in the short term is 90%; the probability of not rising above 51000~53000 in the short term is 67%.

• Market tone:

Short-term holding costs and purchasing power are rapidly increasing, and overall selling pressure is relatively low. This week, the risk of significant downward market volatility is very low, and there may be some oscillation adjustments. The extent of continued short selling at current price levels is limited.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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