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Week 8 on-chain data: Although the interest rate cut will come late, the market enthusiasm will only increase.

WatchToweR Crypto

24-02-27 17:00

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Original Title: "Phoenix Flute Sound, Jade Pot Light Turns | WTR 2.26"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

From February 19th to February 26th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $52985, and the lowest was close to $50521, with a fluctuation range of about 4.6%. Observing the distribution of chips, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 51481, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 44000-48000, about 680,000 pieces;

2. 39000-43000, approximately 1.99 million pieces;

• The probability of not breaking below 41000~43000 in the short term is 90%.

• The probability of not breaking through 51000-53000 in the short term is 67%.

Important News

Economic News

1. Bank of America: In the past week, investors have poured $15 billion into stocks, $15.2 billion into bonds, $2.1 billion into cash, and pulled $900 million out of gold.

2. US small-cap stocks experienced their largest weekly net inflow since 2022, reaching $5.1 billion.

3. Federal Reserve's Harker: Rate cut may happen in May, but it's not my baseline expectation.

4. Fed's Powell: Progress on inflation is "real" and "significant", although the inflation rate is "likely" to reach the Fed's target of 2%, whether to cut interest rates depends on the upcoming data.

5. Goldman Sachs analysts no longer expect the Fed to cut interest rates in May, and predict four 25 basis point cuts this year.

Encryption Ecology News

1. a16z has invested $100 million in EigenLayer, a liquidity re-collateralization protocol. Bn Labs has invested in Renzo, an ETH liquidity re-collateralization protocol based on EigenLayer.

2. The American social media platform Reddit has submitted an IPO application to the New York Stock Exchange and has stated that it will invest a portion of its excess cash reserves in BTC and ETH, and may continue to make such investments in the future.

3. Worldcoin development team's product, engineering, and design director Tiago Sada said that they will release some "major news", but for now, they are keeping some suspense.

4. JPMorgan Chase stated that the surge in interest from retail investors in cryptocurrencies in February may have driven the rise in cryptocurrency prices. The three main catalysts for the price surge were the BTC halving event, the major upgrade of the ETH network called Dencun, and the potential approval of a spot ETH ETF in the United States in May.

5. BTC has reached a new all-time high in fourteen countries including Turkey, Japan, Argentina, and Lebanon.

6. Uniswap Foundation stated that a new proposal is being considered to distribute any protocol fees to UNI token holders who have staked their tokens. The on-chain vote will be released on March 8, 2024. UNI has surged over 60% in the short term, and the DEFI sector has followed suit.

Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral state

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight

• On-chain chips add strength and destruction• Cryptocurrency ETF Fund Position Status

(The following chart shows the ratio of option intention to transaction)

The put protection ratio has increased rapidly. The trading volume of options has also increased moderately.

(Derivative trading volume in the figure below)

The trading volume of derivatives is at a low level after the market is squeezed.

(The implied volatility of options in the following figure)

The implied volatility has not changed much in the short term.

Emotional State Rating: Slightly FOMO

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the following figure)

The current short-term holder cost is 42.5K, and the short-term holder cost is still rising. The positive sentiment has slightly decreased, but looking at it the other way around, it is leaving room for the next price increase. The current price level still pays attention to the transfer of loss chips.

(新增地址和活跃地址)

translates to

(New addresses and active addresses)

Newly added and active addresses are at a medium to low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in a state of accumulated outflow, with relatively low selling pressure.

(Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the figure below)

The current state of Dabing is in a state of significant outflow accumulation.

(Net position of E-Too Exchange in the following figure)

The current outflow of Erbings is continuing in large quantities.

(High Weight Throw Pressure in the figure below)

There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Compared to last week, global purchasing power has rebounded moderately, while stablecoin purchasing power remains stable.

(Global purchasing power status as shown below)

This Wednesday, the purchasing power of Zhou is still continuing to recover, and the sustained recovery of purchasing power at the current price level may indicate more positive performance in prices in the future.