Make arrangements in advance and take stock of the current status of the pre-launch protocol

24-02-29 11:38
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Original Title: Points Trading & Pre-Launch markets - A Comprehensive Analysis
Original Author: THOR, HYPHIN
Original Translation: Luffy, Foresight News


Speculation is the lifeblood of the cryptocurrency market, and savvy opportunists often find new ways to bet on assets. In most cases, people invest in existing things because there is some data that can help people make wise decisions. However, recent market trends indicate an increase in airdrop distribution and trading volume of unreleased assets.


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Introduction


The surge in pre-market trading interest is largely attributed to numerous airdrop activities and highly anticipated projects that hope to push their tokens onto the public market using the booming market and positive sentiment.


With all the necessary catalysts in place for the new narrative, protocols such as Aevo, Hyperliquid, and Whales Market have seized the opportunity. These platforms offer perpetual futures for tokens that have not yet been issued.


Aevo, Whales Market, and Hyperliquid's pre-market trading volume


Please note that these tools are highly volatile and should be used with caution, as their liquidity is questionable and determining the fair value of their underlying assets is extremely difficult.


Given the highly speculative and risky nature of the financial products mentioned earlier, what value and opportunities do they offer to traders? We will attempt to find the answer by analyzing market data in this article.


Aevo's Pre-launch Market


Historical Performance


With the help of exchange APIs and historical data, we can observe the price performance of all assets that have ever traded in pre-market and understand their performance after official listing.


Comparison of asset prices before and after the launch of some protocols


The common pattern for most of these assets is that the trading volume is relatively low after listing, and volatility and trading volume reach their peak as the release date approaches, and then activity begins to decrease.


Objectively speaking, the initial listing price of each asset in the table is not its price peak. Airdropped tokens have performed exceptionally well in the past 6 months, although it is widely believed that once airdropped tokens become tradable, they will have a huge impact on prices.


However, this does not mean that people should immediately buy assets after they are listed on pre-market. Price fluctuations may lead to liquidation of positions, and due to unknown listing standards, returns cannot be guaranteed.


As far as trading volume is concerned, it is obvious that assets that are sought after, not just assets that are circulating on Twitter because of their incentive measures, have received more attention than other tokens that are about to be launched, most of which have a daily trading volume of less than $100,000.


JUP trading volume as a percentage of different pre-market sessions


As far as Jupiter is concerned, after being hyped during the expansion period of Solana, they emerged as the winner by absorbing a large amount of liquidity.


Current pre-launch market


Reviewing historical data, let's take a look at current opportunities. As of today, there are a large number of unreleased tokens available for trading on Aevo and Hyperliquid.


Currently active pre-issuance assets on Aevo and Hyperliquid


Other than the recently listed Parcel and Portal, there haven't been many active trades. Based on price performance, most tokens have performed well, with a few tokens increasing several times in value over the course of a few months.


Let's select some interesting items from the list and see if we can determine whether their valuations are comparable to similar protocols.


Wormhole(W)


The FDV of Wormhole is calculated by multiplying the W/USD token price of Hyperliquid by the total token supply (10 billion).


Compared with alternative solutions in the market, the theoretical valuation of Wormhole may be overestimated at present. Unless there is a breakthrough progress announced, the token price may decrease after the token generation event, as the trading volume reflects low investor interest.


BLAST


Blast's FDV is calculated by multiplying the Aevo BLAST-USD token price by the total supply of 10 billion.


Although speculation makes it possible for FDV to change by billions of dollars at any time, the TVL indicator shows a clear interest in the Blast ecosystem (likely due to the expectation of airdrops).


From the pricing perspective of L2, Blast seems to be undervalued on paper, but more information needs to be considered when trying to draw a clear conclusion. Unfortunately, there is little information about its on-chain status other than TVL, which makes the evaluation process difficult.


积分交易


translates to

Points Trading


in English.

Whales Market Points Trading


















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