Original title: "Fengwu Qianchao, Fengpu Hunter | WTR 3.3"

Original source: WTR Research Institute

This week review

This week from February 26 to March 4, Bingtang The highest price of Orange is around $64,000, and the lowest value is close to $50,901, with a fluctuation range of about 25.7%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 61,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 49000-53000 About 580,000 pieces;

2. 44000-48000, about 630,000 pieces;

• The probability of not falling below 51,000~53,000 in the short term is 70%;

• The probability that it will not rise above 68,000~71,000 in the short term is 61%.

Important news

Economic news

1. The Nasdaq hits a new high.

2. The annual rate of the core PCE price index in January was 2.8%, in line with the expected value of 2.80%, lower than the previous value of 2.90%.

3. The PCE price index annual rate in January was 2.4%, in line with the expected value of 2.40%, lower than the previous value of 2.60%.

4. The U.S. core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 2.8% in January, the smallest increase since March 2021.

5. Fed Bostic said: Inflation is expected to continue on a trajectory of 2%, reiterating that he expects to cut interest rates for the first time this summer.

6. Analyst Peter Andersen said the PCE data was good news and should boost investor optimism.

7. Goldman Sachs said: It is difficult to call the current situation the top of the U.S. stock market. The "golden girl" scene has been attracting retail investors to enter the market, prompting many analysts to quickly revise their market forecasts for the end of 2024. According to Target's expectations, the market was "relatively saturated" in March, but there were no catalysts for a potential sell-off.

Encryption ecological news

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced the New York Stock Exchange The proposal aims to amend Rule 915 to allow options on the BTC ETF, Grayscale GBTC and any trust holding BTC to be listed and traded.

2. Aiming to provide investors with more opportunities to obtain BTC market exposure and meet investment needs, the SEC will make a decision within 45 days after issuing the notice, which may be extended to 90 sky.

3. Nobel Prize winner Steve Hanke said: BTC is certainly not a currency, and anything with such high volatility will never qualify as a currency. Qualification; BTC is a highly speculative zero-value asset.

4. Frank Chaparro, director of The Block, said that Deribit’s total notional options open interest hit a record high of $26 billion.

5. According to three analysts working for fund management companies, since the beginning of February, BTC ETF products have purchased an average of 3,500-4,300 BTC per day. Far more than the 900 BTC generated every day.

6. Bloomberg said that Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo, the wealth management departments of Bank of America, are offering spot BTC ETFs to wealth management customers, which highlights the mainstream companies’ interest in BTC. Acceptance of this type of product is growing, and in addition, Morgan Stanley is evaluating adding a spot BTC ETF to its platform.

7. About 3.5 hours after the US spot ETF opened, BTC hit US$64,000. When the BTC custodian Coinbase went down, BTC fell back until after the US stock market closed. Within 3 hours, Coinbase fully returned to normal, and Coinbase responded: "Platform traffic exceeded previous modeling by ten times."

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long it will last in this stage, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze the short-term market situation; and the emergence of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• Total spot selling pressure

• ETF holdings

• ETF net position

• Profit percentage of the entire network

(Total spot selling pressure in the picture below)

Spot Total selling pressure has reached previous highs similar to those near stage tops. Market pressure suddenly increased.

(ETF positions in the picture below)

Grayscale’s positions While there has been a significant decline, new ETF holdings represented by BlackRock have increased significantly. Grayscale’s holding reduction has almost reached half.

(ETF net position in the chart below)

Comparison Coincidentally, the current market correlation is still positive among US ETFs.

Judging from this correlation, the previous market correction is somewhat related to Grayscale’s sharp sell-off again.

Currently, Grayscale’s positions have been sold off by almost half, and the subsequent impact on the market will be more or less less.

The main financial strength of this round comes from ETFs. If you want to further observe how far it can go in the future, you need to pay more attention to the changes in one day.

(Profit percentage of the entire network in the figure below)

At present, the market's overall network profit has reached 99%, which is close to the stage top or the key point of correction.

The power of support and the power to absorb market selling pressure comes from ETFs. Some corrections may occur in the future, but the magnitude may become smaller. Because the market is being distorted by some new forces.

Mid-term exploration

• Incremental structural analysis

• Accumulation Trend score

• Internet sentiment positivity

• Purchasing power difference

(incremental structure analysis in the figure below)

Orange line: Positions of short-term participants

Blue area: Increasing purchasing power

From the real-time capital growth rate, the overall strength of the market continues to show an increase.

At the same time, the increase in short-term participants also indicates a strong increase in new forces. Judging from previous situations, the increase in short-term participants has also injected more abundant liquidity into the market.

(The accumulated trend points in the figure below)

　There is a slight decrease in the accumulated scores of large volumes of "1k-10k" and ">10k", which may mean that the field has entered the middle stage. At the same time, the increase in small and medium-sized groups may mean that the market has fallen into a stage of fanaticism among the majority groups.

Under this condition, it is possible that the main group has completed the market guidance and is gradually leaving the market in stages. Of course, the above observations are only preliminary judgments at the current stage.

(Network sentiment positivity in the picture below ⸺optimized version)

The increase in online sentiment is not very sustained, and is more of an increase under conditions of mild market pressure. It is possible that the on-chain emotional state in the market still manifests as fluctuating conditions in the market.

(Purchasing power difference in the picture below)

Transaction The purchasing power difference within the exchange is positive, and the exchange still has relatively sufficient purchasing power.

Short-term observations

• Derivatives risk coefficient

• Options Intentional transaction ratio

• Derivatives trading volume

• Options implied volatility

• Profit and loss transfer volume

• New Addresses and active addresses

• Net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange

• Net position of Yitai Exchange

• High weight selling pressure

• Global purchasing power status

• Stablecoin exchange net positions

• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the risk of derivatives is high.

(Derivatives risk coefficient in the figure below)

In recent weeks, the market has shown continuous short squeezes. Last week, a small short squeeze was expected, and the market showed a large amount of short squeezes. The current price has reached 65K. Judging from the liquidation volume and risk coefficient, it is still expected to fluctuate or short squeeze again to a small extent.

(Option intention transaction ratio in the figure below)

The bearish protection ratio levels remain elevated. Options trading volume fell slightly.

(Derivatives trading volume in the figure below)

Derivatives trading volumes are at low levels following the market short squeeze.

(Option implied volatility below)

Implied volatility The rate has increased significantly in the short term.

Emotional state rating: FOMO

(Profitable picture below Loss transfer amount)

In just one week, the cost of short-term holders has increased rapidly, from around 42K to the current of 46K. BTC's continued short squeeze and positive sentiment indicator values have entered a new stage, which also marks that market sentiment has entered a FOMO state.

(New address and active address in the picture below)

New and active addresses are at mid-range levels.

Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: The overall situation is a massive outflow accumulation, and the selling pressure is low.

(Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange in the figure below)

The big pie is currently in a state of accumulation of massive outflows, and the net position in the exchange continues to decline.

(Figure E below: Net position of the Pacific Exchange)

Ercake is currently continuing to flow out in large quantities.

(High weight selling pressure in the picture below)

There is currently no heavy selling pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Compared with last week’s massive recovery in global purchasing power, ETF net positions continue to increase, and the purchasing power of stablecoins remains flat.

(Global purchasing power status in the picture below)

Sanzhou’s purchasing power continues to recover this week. The continued recovery in purchasing power at the current price may indicate that prices will have a more positive performance in the future.

(USDT exchange net position in the figure below)

USDT exchange net positions were flat. However, considering that USDT has always been used to purchase tokens, the continued flatness also means that the purchasing power is relatively strong.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 58,000; there is a willingness to sell at 67,000.

(Coinbase off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices near 58000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices near 64000, 65000, 67000 and 69000.

(Binance off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices near 51000, 55000, and 58000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices near 64000, 65000, 67000, and 69000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at a price near 57,000; there is a willingness to sell at a price near 65,000.

This week’s summary:

News summary:

1. Nine new spot BTC ETFs absorbed approximately 350,000 BTC in 7 weeks.

2. The crypto market is facing a huge demand shock after the launch of ETFs.

3. At present, the catalyst for the sell-off has not been completely triggered.

4. Interest rate cuts may occur this summer.

5. At the same time, the probability of a bubble in the US stock market is small, and breaking new highs is caused by the normal market shift to demand.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The market’s spot selling comes to a new stage, reaching a strength of historical correction or stage top;

2. Grayscale’s holdings have been reduced to nearly half;

3. Previous There is still a strong correlation between the callback and Grayscale's heavy holdings;

4. The profit of the entire market has reached 99%, approaching the limit of capacity selling pressure.

• Market setting the tone:

The market is facing a possible correction, but more attention needs to be paid to the involvement of US ETF funds and how much correction they can absorb.

But there is no doubt that the market correction may be smaller than before.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. The field shows an incremental structure ;

2. The accumulation of large-scale groups has weakened, and small and medium-sized groups have shown a state of fanaticism;

3. The growth rate of online sentiment is relatively slow;

4. The purchasing power within the exchange is relatively abundant

• Market setting:

Divergence, growth

There is currently a divergence in the market, growth and sentiment are still ongoing, and the current divergence may bring volatility.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1. The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and derivatives risks higher.

2. The number of new active addresses is relatively medium.

3. Market emotional state rating: FOMO.

4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow and accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.

5. Global purchasing power has rebounded significantly compared to last week, ETF net positions have continued to increase, and stablecoin purchasing power has remained flat.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 58,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 67,000.

7. The probability of not falling below 51,000~53,000 in the short term is 70%; among them, the probability of not falling below 68,000~71,000 in the short term is 61%.

• Market setting the tone: Market sentiment has reached the FOMO stage. The level of purchasing power continues to rise, the cost of short-term holders increases rapidly to around 46k, and the net position in the exchange continues to decrease, and the selling pressure decreases. This week, it is still expected that the risk of large downward market fluctuations is extremely low, and there may be a shock adjustment or a sustained short squeeze.

Risk warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be careful to view and prevent market black swan risks.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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