Original title: "Spring brings rain, flowers move in the mountains | WTR 3.11"

Original source: WTR Research Institute

This week review

This week is from March 4th to March 11th , the highest price of Bingtang Orange was close to $69,999, and the lowest was close to $59,005, with a fluctuation range of about 18.62%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 65,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 54000-58000 About 370,000 pieces;

2. 49000-53000, about 480,000 pieces;

• The probability of not falling below 51000~53000 in the short term is 90%;

• The probability that it will not rise above 68,000~71,000 in the short term is 42%.

Important news

Economic news

1. Non-farm employment in February was 275,000, higher than the expected value of 200,000 and lower than the previous value of 353,000.

2. The unemployment rate in February was 3.9%, higher than the expected value of 3.70%, and higher than the previous value of 3.70%.

3. After the employment data, the swaps market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in June.

4. The European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision, keeping it unchanged at 4% and lowering its inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 to 2.3% and 2.0%.

5. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows that demand is expected to be stronger and financial conditions will be further relaxed in the future.

6. Powell said at the House of Representatives hearing: "Although inflation is still above 2%, it has eased significantly; we do not seek to lower interest rates until inflation reaches 2%; If the economy develops as we hope, interest rates will need to fall significantly over the next few years."

Crypto ecological news

1. Rostin Behnam, Director of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Said that if Congress passes the "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" bill, his agency is "confident" that a crypto regulatory framework can be established within 12 months.

2. The total value of the El Salvador position rose to $159 million, with a profit of $53.82 million.

3. The market value of the DeFi sector exceeded US$110 billion.

4. The Uniswap Foundation’s proposal to change the Uniswap community governance has passed the temperature check vote. The proposal includes rewards for users who delegate and stake UNI tokens and now enters the chain. Go vote.

5. Kaiko said that BTC trading volume exceeded $46 billion yesterday, reaching the highest level since 2021.

6. The total market value of BTC ETF reaches US$54.593 billion, BlackRock IBIT’s asset management scale reaches US$11.475 billion; Fidelity FBTC’s asset management scale reaches US$7.034 billion .

7. BlackRock applied to the SEC to add spot BTC ETF exposure to its Global Allocation Fund. BlackRock has filed to add BTCETF exposure to its Strategic Income Opportunities Fund.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long it will last in this stage, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze the short-term market situation; and the emergence of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• Total spot selling pressure on the chain

• Added chips and destroyed selling chips on the chain

(The total spot selling pressure on the chain is shown below)

The total spot selling pressure on the chain has entered a high stage.

At this stage, more new forces are generally needed to support the pressure.

ETF is a new force now, and we need to continue to pay attention to the status of ETF in the future.

Judging from the overall historical record of selling pressure, the bull market has entered the second half from this perspective.

(The picture below shows the addition of new chips and the destruction of selling chips on the chain)

The new chips on the chain began to slowly increase again.

This means that the supporting force of the market has appeared again.

It may be able to digest the selling pressure with pressure up and down near new highs.

The strength of the market's digestion of selling pressure mainly depends on the strength of the U.S. stock market during market hours.

Medium-term exploration

• Unrealized profit-loss ratio range status

• Chip distribution ⸺ short-term, long-term structure

• Short-term participant profit percentage compound model

(Unrealized profit and loss ratio interval status in the figure below)

This model is used to evaluate the basic emotional state of users in the venue and determine the current situation in the venue from the perspective of the unrealized profit-loss ratio. Profit-loss ratio.

Currently, the market is in a feverish stage, and the overall market has entered a more fanatical state.

The market continues to maintain a state of high profitability/excessive profitability. It may be that the overall profitability needs stronger new funds to promote it.

(Chips distribution in the figure below - short-term and long-term structure)

More than 95% of the nearby price levels are short-term chips, which means that the market has entered a rhythm in which short-term participants widely participate in the market.

In this state, the market may fluctuate significantly because short-term participants are more concerned about costs.

(Short-term participant profit percentage compound model below)

Large groups with weak liquidity are currently in a state of increasing their holdings. What needs to be cautious is that the intensity of short-term participants' holdings has weakened slightly. There may be more significant performance during the U.S. trading period.

Short-term observations

• Derivatives risk coefficient

• Options Intentional transaction ratio

• Derivatives trading volume

• Options implied volatility

• Profit and loss transfer volume

• New Addresses and active addresses

• Net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange

• Net position of Yitai Exchange

• High weight selling pressure

• Global purchasing power status

• Stablecoin exchange net position

• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the risk of derivatives is high.

(Derivatives risk coefficient in the figure below)

Last week, the market still showed continuous short squeezes. A large number of derivatives were liquidated, and the liquidation volume reached bull market levels. The current risk coefficient is still in the dangerous zone, and it is very easy to form a situation of double explosion of longs and shorts or a continuous short squeeze. .

(Option intention transaction ratio in the figure below)

The bearish protection ratio levels remain elevated. Options trading volume fell slightly.

(Derivatives trading volume in the figure below)

Derivatives trading volume is at low levels after the market short squeeze, and low levels mean that another change is close to happening.

(Option implied volatility in the chart below)

Implied volatility has increased slightly in the short term.

Emotional state rating: FOMO

(Profit and loss transfer volume in the figure below)

Last week it was mentioned that the short-term holder cost was 46K, and this week it has reached around 50K. It has been three weeks in a row that short-term holder costs have been rising rapidly at a rate of 4K per week. Market sentiment indicators also continued to reach new highs, and market sentiment continued to be FOMO.

(New address and active address in the picture below)

New and active addresses are at mid-range levels.

Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: The overall situation is a massive outflow accumulation, and the selling pressure is low.

(Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange in the figure below)

The big pie is currently in a state of accumulation of massive outflows, and the net position in the exchange continues to decline.

(Net position of E-Pacific Exchange in the figure below)

Two cakes have received a large inflow this week, and currently about half of the amount has been digested. Overall, there is still a continued accumulation of outflows.

(High weight selling pressure in the picture below)

After the price continued to rise, there was a high-weighted selling pressure, which has now eased.

Purchasing power rating: Compared with last week, when global purchasing power was flat and in a strong state, the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.

(Global purchasing power status in the picture below)

Global purchasing power continues to be strong this week, with purchasing power in the Americas declining slightly, but purchasing power in Asia and Europe continuing to increase. Overall, it was the same as last week.

(USDT exchange net position in the figure below)

The overall net position of USDT exchanges increased significantly.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 72,000.

(Coinbase off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices near 61000, 65000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices near 70000, 72000, 74000.

(Binance off-chain data below)

Around 60000, 62000, 66000 There is a willingness to buy at the price;

There is a willingness to sell at prices near 70000, 71000, 72000, and 74000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data below)

There are prices around 60000,64000 Willingness to buy;

There is willingness to sell at a price near 70,000.

This week’s summary

News summary:

1. Powell’s attitude softened and the market released more dovish sentiments. In June Interest rate cuts are more likely.

2. At present, international capital and risk markets, such as US stocks, crypto assets and even gold prices, will place more expectations on the results when macro funds are transferred, so there is still room for growth.

3. In the long term, the total funds used to allocate gold will be approximately 3.2 trillion US dollars. In the long term, there is still a lot of crypto space. Although it is not as exaggerated as the media highlights.

4. When capital is allocated, the market will fluctuate violently. Although the bull market in the international capital market (U.S. stocks) may last for one year, two years or even longer in the future, the largest increase will be When early expectations have just changed.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The total spot selling pressure on the chain has entered

2. The number of new chips on the chain has begun to increase, adding further support to the market.

• Market setting: Judging from the level of historical selling pressure, we have entered the second half of the market, and we need to pay attention to more new developments next. Increase strength.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. The unrealized profit and loss status is displayed, and the market enters Frenzy stage;

2. 95% of the current chips are short-term chips;

3. The accumulation status of short-term participants has slightly weakened.

• Market setting:

Enthusiasm, risk control

Market entry During the frenzy stage, take appropriate risk control.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1. The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and derivatives risks higher.

2. The number of new active addresses is relatively medium.

3. Market emotional state rating: FOMO.

4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow and accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.

5. Compared with last week when global purchasing power was flat and in a strong state, the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 72,000.

7. The probability of not falling below 51,000~53,000 in the short term is 90%; the probability of not falling below 68,000~71,000 in the short term is 42%.

• Market setting:

The overall market performance is still strong, and short-term holder costs have risen rapidly and have reached around 50K. This week, the risk of large downward market fluctuations is still expected to be extremely low, and there may be two-way liquidation of derivatives or a sustained short squeeze.

Risk warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be careful to view and prevent market black swan risks.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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