How much is the actual circulation of BTC? Will spot ETFs "buy out" the circulation?

24-03-19 09:00

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Original author: GoldenGoat, founder of imbalance

Editor’s note: Recently, according to data from Farside Investors, the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF since its launch has exceeded 121 One hundred million U.S. dollars. The holdings of BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exceed 1% of the theoretical maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoins, with a market value of more than US$16 billion. Bitcoin ETF data is an important reference indicator for retail investors. Reference reading: "Why is ETF daily data worth paying attention to, and what does it have to do with the market?" 》. The founder of imbalance GoldenGoat shared his analysis of Bitcoin ETFs on X, reprinted by BlockBeats The full text is as follows:

Have you ever thought about the real quantity of pie in circulation?

Can spot ETFs really buy up all the circulating supply?

A total of 19,654,193 BTC have been mined so far, but how many have been lost or forgotten?

Here are simple statistics, as shown in the figure.

32.18% of Bitcoins have moved in the past year. This amount It is 6,324,719 BTC. This number is the total number of Bitcoins that have participated in transactions within this year.

Then there is the total amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges, which is now 1.8 million+.

ETF has net increased its holdings by more than 200,000 in the past two months and now holds The total amount is more than 800,000.

There are also more than 200,000 held by micro-strategies in various countries Those held or confiscated by the government. Of course, not all of the Bitcoins held by the government and those held by exchanges have been moved within a year, but there must be overlap.

So a 20% discount on the more than 6 million active Bitcoins within a year is not too much, that is 5 million (not overestimating the number of believers) The number of holdings increased during this year)

Based on the price of 70,000 U, if the price remains unchanged, only 350 billion U.S. dollars will be needed to buy it all All Bitcoins are now in circulation, and in the past two months, ETFs have had a net inflow of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars, not including the additional issuance of USDT.

So in theory, if the pie does not continue to rise, buying it will just It’s a matter of time, and if the pie falls and there is no black swan in the United States, such as a recession, it will only accelerate the speed at which traditional capital buys out Bitcoin (it used to cost 70,000 U each, but it inexplicably pulled back and collapsed, and now it only needs 50,000 U a)

This is also my conspiracy theory. The recent daytime rises are all after the BlackRock ibit data came out. It is because of the currency circle. People see the FOMO sentiment caused by BlackRock buying so much again.

So to sum up, I said that for the currency circle, we only need to pay attention to one indicator, which is the fund inflow of ETF (other indicators are paper tigers, and at the same time, In 2021, we should pay attention to Grayscale buying volume and USDT issuance volume). If it slows down significantly for several consecutive days, we should pay attention to the risk of correction. And if we encounter a large correction and the inflow of funds does not increase significantly, we should pay more attention to it.

The conclusion is simple. As long as ETFs continue to flow in, the pie will keep rising. Unless the mood goes crazy and rises too much in a short period of time, then the rise will be too high. The excess will return in value.

And recession is still a nuclear bomb-level negative for the big pie and a nuclear bomb-level negative for the global market, and it will directly It affects the market sentiment, and at the same time affects the fund inflow of ETF, and even turns the inflow into a continuous outflow (now is not 3 years ago, the Bitcoin purchased by Grayscale can only become GBTC and compete with each other in its own pool. Finally, it was marked as a negative premium of close to -50% at the end of 22), then by then, it is time for the trend to reverse.

For us ordinary market participants, if we have another opportunity like this, please cherish the cheap pie!