The market has been volatile in recent days, with BTC falling below $65,500 today. On March 17, it fell as low as around $64,500.

At the same time, some people think this is a new way of playing the hot meme market, while others think it is a sign that the market will peak in the short term. However, SOL Ecosystem has followed the market in the cold weather today, and the community can’t help but ask bitterly, how much further will it fall?

Analyst: Bitcoin may correct again by 10%

According to data from Farside Investors , Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of US$642.5 million yesterday, while Fidelity FBTC only had a net inflow of US$5.9 million. It currently requires net inflows from three ETFs: IBIT, Invesco Galaxy’s BTCO (smaller scale), and Valkyrie’s BRRR (smaller scale). It would take more than $610 million to maintain overall net inflows. This data will be released later today.

On March 16, 10x Research released the latest report. Analyst Markus Thielen said that compared with Bitcoin, the prospects for Ethereum ETF approval appear to be less optimistic. , analysts estimate the likelihood of approval is only 30%. This uncertainty makes Ethereum likely to be a drag on Bitcoin after the Dencun upgrade is implemented. In addition, recent inflation data from Europe and the United States have come out, and the reluctance of central bank officials to commit to rate cuts has further dampened market sentiment, leading to a Bitcoin sell-off during the Asian trading session.

Given these factors, Bitcoin price failed to sustain after breaking out to new highs, hinting at the possibility of a deeper and longer correction. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs typically slow as the week progresses, with Friday's lowest numbers (net inflows of 199 million), with Bitcoin potentially falling to 63,000 as a potential target before resuming the uptrend.

Also, altcoins closely tied to Ethereum’s rally may have reached short-term tops, with tokens like SHIB seeing significant gains trading volume surged. A drop in South Korean meme trading volume suggests last week’s meme coin craze may also be reaching its peak, signaling a broader market correction.

Yesterday, Markus Thielen wrote in a report that Bitcoin price has found short-term support and stabilized at $67,000, but the "real test" will be Come Monday and Tuesday, Bitcoin’s correction could continue if ETF inflows disappoint.

“Although this is an unpopular narrative, inflows are expected to slow after prices experience significant intraday volatility,” the report said. “According to "Our reversal indicator, a retracement to $59,035 appears more likely, providing a better risk-reward entry level," which would indicate another 10% drop in Bitcoin price.

How is the market outlook

Since the Bitcoin spot ETF was launched in January, There have been net inflows of tens of billions of dollars, but if these funds came from large institutions, this number would not be so shocking, but according to experts, this is not the case.

Funds come from ordinary people, who are regarded by the financial world as retail investors. "There may be some advisors involved, but retail investors are clearly an important factor in terms of deal size," said Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. According to data from Eric Balchunas, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, issued The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has an average of 250,000 transactions per day. The average trade size was 326 shares, or about $13,000, indicating that the trades were made by non-professional investors.

Therefore, comparing the future potential of Bitcoin spot ETFs still leaves room for imagination.

According to BTC.com, the current block height is still 31 days away from the Bitcoin halving time, and price adjustment before the halving is also a trend in the market. The healthy correction that some people expected.

Markus Thielen published a prediction article saying that even taking into account the law of diminishing returns (removing data from 2013), it can still be said that once Bitcoin reaches a new high, the price should will continue to rise. A reversal test of last week’s intraday high suggests a 50% chance of Bitcoin rising or falling.

While there may be a 10-day or 20-day consolidation period, prices will be higher after both 30 and 60 days. This would predict Bitcoin reaching $77,000 in early April and $99,000 by May 2024.

“We have a long-term target of $125,000, which is derived from our analysis in June 2023 and November 2023. Cow"

Related reading: "Exclusive interview with Matrixport analyst Markus: Bitcoin will reach $125,000, and the bull market is only half-way》

By mid-summer, this record high analysis would predict a price increase to 146,000 (within 90 days). Although corrections and retracements can occur at any time, traders can consider the breakout level (68,300) as a new bottom line. “Above this level, we can argue that Bitcoin could see material upside in the coming weeks and months. Although there is a possibility that Bitcoin price climbs to 146,000 this summer, we currently maintain 125,000 price target as we expect this bull market to continue into 2025."

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群：

Telegram 订阅群：https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群：https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号：https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia