Original title: "The setting sun continues to rain, the sky is green and green falls in the courtyard | WTR 3.18"

Original source: WTR Research Institute

This week’s review

This week is from March 11 to March 18, The highest price of Bingtang Orange is around $73,777, and the lowest value is close to $64,533, with a fluctuation range of around 11.49%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 65,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 54000-58000 About 340,000 pieces;

2. 59000-63000, about 480,000 pieces;

• The probability of not falling below 54000~57000 in the short term is 90%;

• The probability that it will not rise above 68,000~71,000 in the short term is 42%.

Important news

Economic news

1. The one-year U.S. inflation rate in March is expected to be 3%, lower than the expected value of 3.10% and unchanged from the previous value of 3.00%.

2. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said: The economy is more resilient than expected and is optimistic about 2024. The capital market is recovering. If the situation worsens, the Federal Reserve has room to relax monetary policy.

3. The annual PPI rate in February was 1.6%, exceeding the expected value by 1.1% and the leading value by 0.90%.

4. In February, the PPI monthly rate was 0.6%, exceeding the expected value by 0.30% and leading the value by 0.30%.

5. The inflation indicator CPI released by the United States exceeded expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims fell short of expectations

6. Fitch said: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to cut interest rates three times before the end of the year. , a total of 75 basis points of interest rate cuts.

7. BNP Paribas believes the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of December, in line with market pricing of 74 basis points.

8. Goldman Sachs said: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its interest rate meeting on March 20 and begin an easing cycle at its June meeting.

Encryption Ecological News

1. To U.S. Senators Sen Jack Reed and Senator Laphonza Butler Gary Gensler, director of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), called on the SEC not to approve other cryptocurrency ETFs.

2. Chainalysis data shows that the total income realized by cryptocurrency investors recovered to US$37 billion in 2023, a rebound from the US$127 billion loss in 2022.

3. South Africa will issue licenses to about 60 cryptocurrency platforms by the end of March. The country’s Financial Conduct Authority said that more than 300 crypto asset providers are seeking approval.

4. The ETH Dencun upgrade is completed, with the goal of improving the scalability and modularity of the Laver 2 network, enhancing the network’s security features, and improving overall usability.

5. ETH founder Vitalik Buterin said that the basic rollup expansion milestone has been achieved, and the next milestone may be the expiration of Walker trees and historical data.

6. Goldman Sachs Group, Bank of New York Mellon, Chicago Board Options Exchange and several other companies have completed a series of pilot tests on the blockchain network connecting different banks and financial institutions. It is reported that this is the first step in the capital market. The largest inter-chain experiment, participants executed more than 350 simulated transactions on the blockchain, involving tokenized assets, digital cash, repos, securities lending and margin management

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used For analyzing what stage we are currently at, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the emergence of some directions and trends. The possibility of a certain event happening under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• Non-liquid supply (whale) position

• On-chain spot trading volume on exchanges

• Spot accumulation transaction position

(Illiquid supply (whale) position in the picture below)

Better defined as illiquid giant whale.

The illiquid whales have partially reduced their holdings before, which is slightly related to Grayscale ETF.

In the recent past, there has been a return to accumulation, and their positions and actions play a decisive role.

(The transaction volume of on-chain spot on the exchange in the figure below)

The transaction volume on the exchange chain has increased significantly, which is generally related to the large fluctuations in market prices.

Historically, most of them are related to the downward fluctuation of the market, and this data is generally used as a condition for screening.

Can be used to filter out more disguised conditions.

(Spot accumulation transaction position in the picture below)

Judging from the superposition of the two data, the previous large fluctuations were related to selling pressure within the market, which has occurred many times at high levels in the past.

Now the market has shifted from selling pressure to accumulation.

This represents that the market has returned to accumulation after experiencing a short period of profits, or from a longer-term perspective, continues to maintain accumulation.

Medium-term exploration

• Realized holding ratio

• Quarterly status of high-weight selling pressure

• ETH market share status

(The holding ratio has been achieved in the figure below)

This model is used to observe the holding ratio of short-term participants. Judging from the current situation, there are more short-term participants. At the same time, currently There are signs of a slight slowdown.

(High-weighted selling pressure on the quarterly moving average in the figure below)

As a greater proportion of liquidity enters the market, the overall magnitude of high-weighted selling pressure is also rising.

Unlike 2023, the current rise is faster.

After more large-scale selling pressure is exerted, it will further test the overall ability of the market to undertake.

(ETH market share in the picture below)

Observe the proportion of ETH in the market. According to the general rules observed, when the fluctuations in the market are large, there will usually be signs of ETH dominance, and the structure of the market will also change.

Judging from the current status, the market may be slightly unstable under the dominance of ETH.

A stable state requires waiting for the proportion of ETH to decline and BTC to regain its dominant position.

Short-term observations

• Derivatives risk coefficient

• Options Intentional transaction ratio

• Derivatives trading volume

• Options implied volatility

• Profit and loss transfer volume

• New Address and active address

• Bingtang Orange Exchange’s net position

• Yita Exchange’s net position

• High-weighted selling pressure

• Global purchasing power status

• Stablecoin exchange net position

• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives Rating: Risk Factor In the neutral zone, derivatives risk is moderate.

(Derivatives risk coefficient in the figure below)

After the continuous short squeeze, the market ushered in a correction this week. Last week, it was mentioned that it is very easy to form a long-short double explosion situation. This week, the risk of derivatives has reached the neutral zone, and it is still possible to cause a long-short double explosion in derivatives. In addition, the space for long squeeze is limited.

(Option intention transaction ratio in the figure below)

The bearish protection ratio levels remain elevated. Options trading volume fell slightly.

(Derivatives trading volume in the figure below)

Last week, it was mentioned that a change was imminent, and the market subsequently experienced a correction. The trading volume of derivatives this week is at a low level after the long squeeze, and the low level means that the market is close to changing again.

(Option implied volatility below)

Implied volatility is unchanged from last week in the short term.

Emotional state rating: FOMO

(Profitable picture below Loss transfer amount)

The cost of short-term holders last week was 50K, and it has now reached 53K. Even during the correction, short-term holder costs are still rising and market sentiment is still FOMO. The positive sentiment indicator has dropped slightly, but it also means that there is enough room for the next change.

(New address and active address in the picture below)

New and active addresses are at medium to high levels.

Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: The overall situation is a massive outflow accumulation, and the selling pressure is low.

(Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange in the figure below)

Big Pie Currently, a large amount of outflows are accumulating, and the net position within the exchange continues to decline.

(Figure E below: Net position of the Pacific Exchange)

The second cake has a large inflow this week, and the second cake and the big cake have differentiated.

(High weight selling pressure in the picture below)

High-weighted selling pressure has now eased.

Purchasing power rating: Compared with the moderate decline in global purchasing power last week, the purchasing power of stablecoins has declined slightly.

(Global purchasing power status in the picture below)

Global purchasing power has declined moderately this week, but overall, even if it has dropped by half compared to before, the level of purchasing power is still higher than the level in the previous year. It will have an impact on current prices, but it won't have a particularly big impact.

(USDT exchange net position in the figure below)

The overall net position of USDT exchanges decreased slightly.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 64,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.

(Coinbase off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices near 60000, 62000, and 64000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices near 73000, 75000, and 76000.

(Binance off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices near 60000, 62000, and 65000; there is a willingness to sell at prices near 70000, 71000, 72000, and 74000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data below)

At 60000,64000 There is a willingness to buy at prices near 74000 and 75000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices near 74000 and 75000.

This week’s summary:

News summary:

1. The entire international capital market is relatively active, choosing to ignore the negative factors, and has begun to initially turn strong.

2. Almost all major players have bet or determined on the conditions for cutting interest rates and releasing funds in the second half of this year.

3. In a bull market, the market will accelerate the correction during the upward breakthrough, which is caused by the fear of market participants to worry about gains and losses, and the panic of negative news. When this situation is serious, the market will choose to make substantial and rapid adjustments.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The illiquid whale returns to increase its holdings;

2. More groups in the market have turned from profit-taking to accumulation.

• Market setting tone:

More groups are still accumulating.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. The number of short-term participants is relatively large. At present, The rise is slowing down;

2. High-weighted selling pressure is increasing;

3. ETH has a higher proportion.

• Market setting:

Adjustment

The current proportion of ETH is relatively high , maybe the stability of the disk needs to be adjusted.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1. The risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and derivatives Risk is moderate.

2. The number of new active addresses is at a medium to high level.

3. Market emotional state rating: FOMO.

4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow and accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.

5. Compared with the moderate decline in global purchasing power last week, the purchasing power of stablecoins has declined slightly.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 64,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.

7. The probability of not falling below 54000~57000 in the short term is 90%; the probability of not falling below 68000~71000 in the short term is 42%.

• Market Tone Setting: The overall positive sentiment in the market has declined, but it is still in a FOMO atmosphere. Short-term holders continue to climb to around 53K, and even if there is an extreme downward move, the decline has been limited. The risk of large downward market fluctuations is expected to be extremely low this week, and two-way liquidation of derivatives may occur.

Risk warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be careful to view and prevent market black swan risks.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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