On March 27, Fidelity, a $4.5 trillion asset management company, launched a proposed spot Ethereum ETF Filed Form S-1, which included the pledge.

At the beginning of this year, U.S. Securities The Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States, and Fidelity is one of the first 11 issuers. Due to the precedent of the adoption of a spot Bitcoin ETF, many predict that the release of Ethereum will be a matter of time.

After delaying the resolution of multiple Ethereum ETH applications this year, Bloomberg analyst james seyffart said that sec today postponed its decision on invesco and galaxy Ethereum The etf filing came to a resolution, 100% as expected, and more postponed decisions will continue to happen in the coming months. At the same time, he emphasized that the key date for the spot Ethereum ETF is May 23, which is also the final deadline for VanEck’s application.

Pessimism

However, there are only more than fifty days left before the deadline for ETH ETF approval , but it is reported that the Ethereum Foundation (the Swiss non-profit organization at the heart of the Ethereum ecosystem) is under investigation by a "national authority." However, as of press time, the scope and focus of the investigation were unclear because the investigation was subject to a confidentiality agreement. The Ethereum Foundation also did not respond to a request for comment.

A lawyer familiar with the situation said that Swiss regulators may have submitted a document request to the Ethereum Foundation and may be working with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) )cooperate. The lawyer said that the Ethereum Foundation is not the only entity required to submit information, and other overseas entities are also under review.

Therefore, the forecasts of some institutions are pessimistic. Alex Thorn, head of company-wide research at Galaxy Digital, said approval in May now looks highly unlikely.

On March 21, a person from a company that recently received a subpoena request revealed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is targeting Switzerland-based Ethereum. The foundation's investigation began shortly after the blockchain moved to a new governance model called "proof of stake" in September 2022.

"Proof of Stake" allows Ethereum to move away from the energy-intensive model used by Bitcoin and instead adopt a model that relies on a network of trusted validators and provides the SEC with a A new excuse to try to define Ethereum as a security, according to people at three different companies familiar with the subpoenas.

“The SEC has issued subpoenas to a number of cryptocurrency companies regarding their relationship with the Ethereum Foundation, plus the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission The lack of active engagement with ETF applicants two months before the date casts significant doubts about approval in May," Alex Thorn wrote in a note on Friday.

At the same time, Brian Rudick, an analyst at market maker GSR, also said in a report on Wednesday that he believes that the current SEC will be closed this yearThe probability of approval of spot Ethereum ETF in May is 20%, compared to GSR’s January prediction of 75 % is likely to be significantly lower. Analysts say there is some political pressure on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission not to approve more digital asset ETFs. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s investigation into whether Ethereum is a security may significantly reduce the likelihood of approval. Regulators may seek to avoid turning the potential approval of an Ethereum spot ETF into “another big-money event.” Regarding future expectations, analysts believe that any approval process for a spot Ethereum ETF may take longer and may be affected by some litigation events. It now believes that the spot Ethereum ETF is most likely to be approved in 2025 to 2026.

Optimist

According to reports, the SEC is currently studying the issue of whether Ethereum is a security . Fortune reported earlier this month that regulators were seeking to classify ether and had issued subpoenas to several companies as part of the investigation.

But BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has expressed great optimism and confidence in the possibility of the adoption of an Ethereum ETF. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said an Ethereum ETF is still possible even if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission designates the cryptocurrency as a security, which would increase regulatory scrutiny surrounding the second-largest digital asset.

On-chain data analyst Q (@tocuee) stated on social media that he discovered that the same withdrawal behavior of ETH occurred before the BTC ETF was passed in 2023. In the past 24-48 hours, more than $1 billion in ETH has been withdrawn from CEX. Such large, violent and continuous withdrawals have been occurring for quite some time, and were first observed in December last year.

Similar behaviors of these addresses: new addresses, large amounts, exchanges involved Kraken and Coinbase are mainstream exchanges in Europe and the United States, while Binance and Okx also exist. Combined with the news that Fidelity has submitted the S-1 application form for the ETH ETF, Q speculates that the ETH ETF is likely to pass.

Currently, eight potential issuers, including BlackRock, have submitted documents to the SEC to bring spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to the market. The regulator's final decision will be made in May, and industry experts predict that the application will not be approved regardless of the SEC's view on the nature of Ethereum.

As of the time of writing, the price of ETH is $3,503. Bitcoin has dominated the entire crypto market this year, and various "Ethereum killers" such as Solana have also been hunting down Ethereum. Compared with the high sentiment of the overall crypto market, the sentiment of the Ethereum community is not good. "Ethereum ETF can't save the weak ETH?" The Ethereum community raised a question.

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群：

Telegram 订阅群：https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群：https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号：https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia