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With many top sporting events approaching, is it too late to make plans now?

24-04-17 17:01

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Original title: "A big year for global sports! How should the 2024 pan-sports sector "seek the sword in the boat"? "

Original author: Frank, Foresight News

2024 can be said to be a big year for the world's top sports events, from the 2023 Asian Cup (January 12 to February 10) which is in full swing, to the European Cup known as the "mini World Cup" in the middle of the year (June 14 to July 14), to the Paris Olympics in July (July 26 to August 11), and even to the US election on November 5, major sports and political events run throughout the year.

Especially the European Cup and Olympic Games, which will follow one after another from June to August, as large-scale international sports events that attract global attention, they have huge international influence and fan base, which will undoubtedly bring great attention and hype space to the related sports track tokens.

This article aims to simply sort out the sports category tokens that are worth paying attention to, and by reviewing the price trends of the relevant leading tokens during the 2021 European Cup and the 2022 World Cup, try to get a glimpse of the potential trading rules of "carving a boat to seek a sword" behind this year's global events.

Which sports category tokens are worth paying attention to?

"It's not football that rolls on the green field, but gold", sports track-related tokens have always been the most cyclical and hype-expected investment targets in the crypto world.

If we divide this, it can be roughly divided into three categories: sports public chains (Chiliz, TOPGOAL, etc.), team/star fan tokens (SANTOS, BAR, CITY, etc.), and prediction & gambling related tokens (sports NFT categories are not discussed in this article).

Sports public chains

Chiliz (CHZ)

The first one is naturally Chiliz (CHZ). As a sports and entertainment blockchain financial technology provider, Chiliz has been the basic blockchain platform for many football clubs to issue fan tokens, and has launched Socios.com, an interactive and reward application for fan services in the sports and entertainment industries.

On Socios.com, fans can buy CHZ and exchange it for a club's fan tokens, which can then be used to vote on club affairs, and even directly participate in management (from jersey design to team governance voting) or communicate with players.

The current market value of the CHZ token is about 880 million US dollars, and it is also the absolute leader in the sports track with the highest market value.

TOPGOAL (GOAL)

Web3 Football Metaverse Platform TOPGOAL is a sports metaverse platform that can trade genuine digital star cards and participate in football games. It is committed to cooperating with world-famous stars, clubs, etc. for official authorization to create new digital virtual experiences and entertainment consumption methods for stars, clubs and fans.

Currently, many well-known stars including Del Piero, Michael Owen, Guti, Rivaldo, etc. have joined, and GOAL is the governance token of TOPGOAL, and its market value is only about 2 million US dollars at the time of writing.

Team/Star Fan Tokens

Secondly, there are fan tokens of each team/club issued based on blockchains such as Chiliz. Holders usually receive exclusive rights, including voting privileges and exclusive rewards from the club.

As of the time of writing, Chiliz has reached cooperation with many top football clubs such as Manchester City, Arsenal, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Roma, AC Milan, Inter Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, etc., and has issued fan tokens corresponding to a total of 63 teams. The more well-known ones include:

· AC Milan Football Club Fan Token: AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)

· Tottenham Hotspur FC Fan Token (SPURS)

· Paris Saint-Germain Football Club Fan Token: Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)

· Juventus Football Club Fan Token: Juventus Fan Token (JUV)

· FC Barcelona Football Club Fan Token: FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)

· Portugal National Team Fan Token: Portugal National Team Fan Token Token (POR)

· Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)

· Inter Milan Fan Token (INTER)

· Mexican Football Club Fan Token (SAN)

In addition, leading exchanges have also cooperated with the world's top teams to issue fan tokens (most of which are also issued based on Chiliz), such as the three fan tokens LAZIO, SANTOS and PORTO issued based on BNB Chain, which are widely regarded as "Binance-based".

However, from the overall statistical caliber, as of the time of writing, Binance has launched a total of 10 fan tokens, including (team type, the same below):

· Brazilian Serie A football club Santos fan token: Santos FC Fan Token (SANTOS)

· Italian Serie A football club Lazio: S.S. Lazio (LAZIO)

· FC Porto Football Club Fan Token: FC Porto Fan Token (PORTO)

· FC Barcelona Football Club Fan Token: FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)

· Manchester Football Club Fan Token: Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)

· Paris Saint-Germain Football Club Fan Token: Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)

· Juventus Football Club Fan Token: Juventus Fan Token (JUV)

· AC AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)

· Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)

· AS Roma Fan Token (ASR)

OKX has launched 6 fan tokens, including:

· Argentine Football Association Fan Token (ARG)

· Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)

· Flamengo Fan Token (MENGO)

· Trabzonspor Fan Token (TRA)

· Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)

· Istanbul Professional Football Club Fan Token: Galatasaray Fan Token (GALFT)

Prediction & Gambling

In addition, the demand for prediction & gambling often sees a surge during the node period of major sports & political events, especially global events such as the World Cup, European Cup, and the US presidential election.

Take the prediction market leader Polymarket as an example, the transaction volume exceeded US$50 million in the past January, setting a monthly record high.

Among the most notable boosting factors, there are the predictions for the El Salvador presidential election that has ended, whether the spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved, and the ongoing predictions for the winning team of the 2024 European Cup, the predictions for the 2024 US presidential election, the Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the Democratic candidates for the 2024 US presidential election.

However, Polymarket has not issued tokens at present, and other prediction markets such as Aver and BetDEX have extremely shallow betting pools and have not issued tokens.

However, with the approach of the European Cup, the Olympics and the US election in the second half of the year, participating in the corresponding betting pools in various events is also a good opportunity to enrich investment options.

The historical law of "first surge, then plunge"?

If we look back at the historical market, we will find that when the European Cup and other sports events are approaching, the relevant tokens in the pan-sports sector generally follow the historical law of "first surge, then plummet". As for how long in advance the market will change and what kind of trajectory it will have, we will analyze it according to the specific situation.

Since such sports events are mostly held every four years, the development history of the crypto market is relatively long. Therefore, in this article, we only take the 2021 European Cup and the 2022 Qatar World Cup, which are the most recent time nodes, as examples, and conduct a simple review by combining the sports public chain leader token CHZ with the fan tokens SANTOS and PSG on Binance.

2021 European Cup

From June 12 to July 12, 2021, the 2020 European Cup kicked off (Foresight News note: originally scheduled for 2020, it was postponed for one year due to the epidemic).

Taking CHZ, the leading token in the sports sector, as an example, reviewing the secondary market price performance 4 months before the start of this European Cup and throughout the tournament cycle, we can find that it can be roughly divided into three stages:

· 4 months before the tournament, early rise:Around February 12, CHZ began to gradually strengthen, and then in just one month, it rose from 0.3 USDT on February 12 to a high of 0.9449 USDT on March 12, with a 30-day increase of more than 214%;

· 2 months before the tournament, a double top:But then from March 12 to April 16, in about a month, CHZ first fell to a low of 0.36 USDT, a drop of more than 60% from its highest point, and then rose to a high of 0.9449 USDT on April 16. 0.84, out of the double top, and then continued to fall from the high point;

· During the entire event, it fluctuated and fell: A week before the opening day on June 12, CHZ was relatively strong, but on the opening day it closed down by more than 7%, and then fluctuated and fell all the way, falling to a minimum of US$0.178, a drop of more than 80% from the high point four months ago;

In addition, the fan token PSG of Paris Saint-Germain Football Club follows a general trend trajectory-It began to move abnormally three months before the event, and quickly completed a round of rising cycles in more than a month, and then began to fall continuously, and continued to decline after the opening of the event:

· Three months before the event, it rose in advance: Around March 10, PSG rose 52% on the day, and then within a month and a half, it rose from a minimum of 10.862 USDT It continued to rise, reaching a peak of 59 USDT on April 27, with an increase of more than 443% in 47 days;

· It peaked and fell 2 months before the event: Then from April 27 to the opening of the event, PSG fell all the way to 10.78 USDT, almost back to the starting point, with a drop of more than 80% from the highest point. On the opening day of June 12, PSG plummeted again, with an amplitude of more than 10%;

· It hit a new high 1 month after the end: Paradoxically, after the closing of the European Cup, PSG began to rise rapidly, and rose rapidly from 15 USDT to 61.5 USDT in 1 month, an increase of more than 310%;

2022 Qatar World Cup

From November 20 to December 18, 2022, the 2022 Qatar World Cup kicked off.

Among them, we still take CHZ, the leading token in the sports sector, as an example to review the secondary market price performance 5 months before the start of this World Cup and throughout the tournament cycle, and we will find that it can be roughly divided into three stages:

· 5 months before the tournament, short-term bottoming: On June 18, about 5 months before the opening of the tournament, CHZ hit a short-term low of 0.0811 USDT, and then began a two-month slow rise cycle - from 0.0811 USDT on June 18, it rose all the way to a high of 0.265 USDT on August 24, with a 66-day increase of more than 226%;

· 3 months before the tournament, three peaks: After reaching the peak of the first stage on August 25, CHZ successively rose on September 23 and November 7 in the next 3 months before the tournament.

· During the entire event, the price plummeted: A week before the opening day on November 20, CHZ rose by more than 50% in just 5 days - from a low of 0.178 USDT on November 14 to 0.275 USDT on November 19, but then plummeted. On the opening day, it fell by nearly 20%, and then fell throughout the entire event, falling to a low of 0.1123 USD on December 17, a drop of nearly 60% from the stage high one month ago;

In addition, the fan token SANTOS of the "Binance system" also began to move about 4 months in advance and rose 3 months before the event. It formed a double top trend in the first month, and then continued to fall. It continued to fall after the opening of the event, which can be roughly divided into a similar "three-part argument": 4 months before the event, it began to move abnormally: On July 15, about 4 months before the opening of the event, SANTOS began to move abnormally, with an amplitude of 15% on the day, and then began a rapid rise cycle lasting 1 month - it rose from 3.82 USDT on July 15 to a high of 21.49 USDT on August 19, with a 34-day increase of more than 462%;

· In the three months before the event, it formed a double top: after reaching the peak of the first stage on August 19, SANTOS first fell to a minimum of 9.8 USDT, a drop of more than 50% from the highest point, and then rebounded again, and hit a new high of 22.67 USDT on September 25, forming a double top pattern;

· During the entire event, it fell sharply: after hitting a new high on September 25 until the opening of the event, SANTOS fell all the way. In the first half of the month before the opening of the event, it fell by more than 50% in a few days, and closed down by nearly 20% on the opening day, and then continued to fall;

Summary

In general, whether it is the 2021 European Cup cycle or the 2022 Qatar World Cup, CHZ The sports public chain tokens represented by are all launched 4-5 months in advance, and will quickly rise in just 1-2 months, with an increase of more than 200%, and at least a double top trend may be formed during this period.

The trends of fan tokens such as SANTOS are roughly similar, but there are slight differences in details:

· In terms of time, it will be launched a month later than CHZ (starting 3-4 months in advance), and the overall cycle rhythm will be shortened by about one month;

· In terms of increase, it tends to be "built-in leverage", and the increase is often as high as 300%-400%, which is higher than the 200% increase of CHZ;

However, as the European Cup and the World Cup are approaching, funds that participated in the speculation in the early stage tend to sell at high points. The prices of these tokens often peak and fall 2-3 months before the opening of the event, and there is a risk of a short-term plunge after the opening of the event.

From this perspective, the new round of global events in 2024, which will open in June, is the starting point for the sports sector to "seek swords by carving a boat", which has a strong reference significance.

Therefore, "buy expectations, sell facts", this irrefutable truth in the investment field, is almost an iron rule for crypto trading for the sports sector (major event nodes) which has a strong cycle and can be forward-looking.