Dialogue with KOL | From a newbie to an Alpha hunter, the "grassroots counterattack" of sleeping in the rain

24-06-05 11:40
Read this article in 30 Minutes
总结 AI summary
View the summary 收起

In the cryptocurrency circle, it is becoming increasingly difficult to be a KOL. After the Chinese crypto community completed its migration to Twitter, the market and ordinary investors have a demand for KOLs: to be knowledgeable, professional, and able to discover Alpha opportunities early. Under increasingly stringent market standards, crypto KOLs are experiencing a new round of big waves, and the old generation of KOLs are gradually fading from the center of the stage, which also gives a new generation of powerful KOLs the opportunity to rise.

The powerful KOL we recently talked about is Yu Zhong Kuang Shui (@0xSleepinRain). From a "cryptocurrency novice" to a Weibo celebrity, and then to operating his own paid community, his growth trajectory is definitely an inspirational example of a grassroots retail investor's counterattack. Among a group of powerful players, Yu Zhong Kuang Shui gives people the feeling of being a model student in the class, organizing and sharing his study notes every day. In his words, the secret of his success is "the early bird catches the worm".

From a media person to a KOL

Morty studied mechanical engineering as an undergraduate, learning engineering technologies such as material forging and drawing design. In his own words, "I will probably go to the factory to screw after graduation." But as a science and engineering student, he has a lot of affinity with writing work. From the gold rush adventures during his student days, to his first job when he first entered the cryptocurrency circle, and his current daily work, they are all closely related to writing and content creation. It has to be said that in the current crypto industry, content leverage seems to be the most effective leverage.

First entry into the cryptocurrency circle

During college, Morty discovered opportunities on content platforms such as Baijiahao, Toutiao and Huoshan Video, so he and his classmates began to operate self-media accounts in batches and earned their first pot of gold. In fact, at that time, making Douyin might be a better choice, but because he was not very good at making videos, Morty gave up this opportunity. Looking back now, this basically laid the foundation for his love of writing.

Morty graduated in 2018, and the platform dividends gradually faded. After realizing the limitations of the industry's prospects, he came to Hangzhou to look for opportunities. After submitting three or four resumes, Morty joined the encrypted media Bibi News and has been associated with encryption since then. Once, he had the opportunity to interview Gavin Wood, who had just started Polkadot at the time. He thought this person was very powerful, so he bought some DOT. Later, at an industry event in Shanghai, Maorty received an invitation from the Cointelegraph Chinese team, so he sold his position without saying a word and came to Shanghai.

Before this, the daily tasks of the media were purely work for Morty, and he did not participate in cryptocurrency speculation. At the end of 2021, watching the DOT he sold rise from $5 to $60, Morty gradually realized that he could also try to speculate in cryptocurrencies. "I have a life creed, which is to create memories. You can't go to work every day, you always have to do something."

BlockBeats: Which project had a greater impact on you at the time?

Sleeping in the Rain: The one that had the greatest impact on me was Burger Swap, which was the first DEX on BSC. It rose from $0.5 to $27 at the time. At that time, I didn’t have much money, so I skipped a meal every day to buy BURGER. I bought a lot of BURGER at around $0.5, which was quite a lot for me at that time. Although it wasn’t a lot, I bought about 2,000U, and then sold half of it at around $7. Later, it rose to $27, but I didn’t sell it. Finally, it fell back to $7 before I sold all of it. I didn’t really understand it at the time. If I could go back to that time now, I would definitely do better.

BlockBeats: What other projects have had a big impact on you?

Sleeping in the Rain:The ones that had the biggest impact on me were probably Avalanche and Solana. Solana had the biggest impact. I bought SOL at around $35 to $45, sold 25% at $80, 25% at $100, and another 25% at $120, until I sold all of it at $140. I didn't expect it to rise to $200 in the end.

I took a position on Binance at the time, but it was "519" after I bought it. When SOL fell to $26, I added some more positions. As far as I can remember, in the second half of that year, SOL was the first to rise, rising to $70 to $80, and then the market started to go crazy. Later, I also had ideas about Avalanche, because the foundation launched an Avalanche Rush at the time and gave a lot of incentives, which I thought could attract the market's attention. But I completely missed Luna.

BlockBeats: In the last round of crypto cycle, it was still dominated by “Weibo shouting orders”. Most newcomers who entered the circle in 2021 or 2022 found it difficult to learn useful investment logic from “order teachers”. How did you build your cognition?

Sleeping in the Rain:I met many noble people on my way to growth. For example, my former colleagues at Cointelegraph Chinese, my acquaintances at the end of 22, and the KOLs I met on Weibo/Twitter, they taught me a lot. For example, they made me understand something called information transmission.

For example, the information of the project party is at the A level, and it may be at the B level when it reaches the VC. If the project party wants to do something, the first to know must be the VC, and the last to know is the retail investors. And this transmission process may determine the price increase, so in the end the retail investors may be a "taking over process". In addition, they also made me realize that it turns out that speculating in cryptocurrencies can also make money, which makes me more interested in doing a lot of reading and thinking.

Building a community

In the second half of 2021, Morty was still working at Cointelegraph Chinese. He didn't have the idea of being a KOL at first, but because he had always had the habit of writing, it seemed a bit of a waste to sort out the information only for himself, so he took it out and shared it with everyone on social media. A year later, he became a well-known crypto KOL with more than 10,000 fans on Weibo.

In September 2022, a K-line analyst found Morty, hoping to work with him to do a paid group, but Morty thought he was not ready yet, so he spent time doing Notion sorting and other preparatory work. Although the cooperation was not successful in the end, this incident gave Morty a good opportunity to build a community.

At the end of 2023, Morty completely left Weibo and partnered with his good partner Huang Mantou to start his own paid community. Huang Mantou and Morty were colleagues when they worked at Shenchao. Usually, one of them would look for information and the other would do analysis. After they became partners, Huang Mantou was still responsible for finding Alpha information, while Morty analyzed the market and narrative. Since the end of last year, Morty's paid group has slowly grown from 200 to 300 people, and then to the current nearly 500 people. In his opinion, building a community has also made him a more confident person.

BlockBeats: How big is this community going to be?

Rain in the Rain:Based on the number of group members, we may not recruit more than 500. If I were just cutting leeks, my community would not have this number of people, and I have been working on the community very seriously. I will post a lot of things I see and think are important in the group, and I will also post my personal investment operations.

BlockBeats: Can this kind of judgment bring you positive feedback?

Rain in the Wild:Yes, and when I was doing the community, I met a lot of interesting people, and they also gave you positive feedback. Although many group members paid to join the group, they also brought me a lot of new thoughts, which I think is pretty cool. So it makes me more confident and interested in doing this well.

BlockBeats: Does running this community consume a lot of energy?

Rain in the Wild:I'm used to it, and I will combine this with my own growth. In fact, doing a community is also a process of my own growth, and I think this is a very cool thing. For example, if you do reading, you will show it to the members of the community, say some of your own thoughts, and then many people will communicate with you. This kind of community feedback is actually a kind of information flow, including their current emotions, which I can also perceive. In fact, you have to observe the market and understand the market by yourself. It is actually difficult to trade without the market. I think this can help me a lot and make me more closely connected with the market.

BlockBeats: In addition to your own community members, do you communicate frequently with other practitioners in the industry?

Rain in the Rain:There are some fixed people, some do pure trading, some do hair, and some smart money. I like this kind of communication process. Communication can make me understand more, "It turns out that they look at the problem from this perspective." I think it is quite difficult to fight alone. There will be an information cocoon in the mind. Now Twitter recommendations are actually cocoons, so I will expand my information flow by subscribing to emails and building Twitter Lists.

Cognitive Construction and Investment Logic

Morty believes in the wisdom of the early bird. Whether it is in BB News, Cointelegraph Chinese or later Shenchao, he tries his best to learn new things from others. "You must improve your cognition. In the end, your assets will definitely return to your cognitive curve." The experience in Cointelegraph and Shenchao gave Morty a lot of inspiration. He learned the two most important points. One is the transmission of information, and the second is to establish your own information flow.

BlockBeats: How do you build an effective information acquisition framework?

Sleeping in the Rain:I will habitually subscribe to all the content that I think is good. I subscribe to many accounts on Substack by email, including the Lists I follow on X. There are many other people's opinions in it. I will add my own thoughts and make some judgments.

In addition, I will organize the things I have been reading into a list. There is a project library, which is some projects I have seen, and records of community meetings. Many articles that I think are good will also be put here. This method may not be good, but I think it can generate some thoughts and opinions. Although I have announced these things to everyone, few people actually read them. In fact, it is equivalent to making a record of my own reading.

Also, I will look at the market sentiment. For example, some KOLs I follow say that they don't want to look at the market now, or the community sentiment is bleak and no one talks about the market, I think it may have reached the bottom range. However, I don't read too much about pure trading, which is also the aspect I lack, that is, I don't read much about K-line and technical aspects.

BlockBeats: Do you think technical analysis is important in the current market environment?

Rain in the Rain:I think the core point is the effectiveness of the K-line. In many cases in this industry, others draw the K-line for you to see. I can only say that the K-line is important, but not that important. If you can outperform Bitcoin purely by relying on the K-line, it is a bit unrealistic. In this highly PVP market, what is tested is your ability to select targets.

Because I have a partner who looks at the K-line, I will show him the K-line after finding the target, and then choose a more ideal entry point, otherwise I may give up or wait, so that there can be a complementary relationship. I haven't had much time to learn the K-line recently, but this is actually an excuse for my laziness.

BlockBeats: So reading is an important part of your cognitive construction?

Sleeping in the Rain: Yes, I think there are two parts, reading and writing. For me, writing is the process of showing my thoughts. Of course, it is not required to write on social media, but you can write something and make a record yourself, such as building a Notion, and then review these things regularly. My initial understanding of the industry came from the process of writing my knowledge base, from Bitcoin, public chains, DeFi to NFT, Gaming, etc., building my own framework, and then branching out based on this framework.

In addition, I have a small notebook. When I see some personal insights or very insightful words, I will write them down in this notebook. This concept is actually very important. Everyone wants to make a lot of money, but the operation of having $100,000 is completely different from that of having $1 million. The final question to think about is definitely to make investment judgments based on the size of your assets, and how to control risks and survive longer in the market than others. These records of insights and thoughts can help you.

BlockBeats: At the beginning of the year, you began to summarize the "star narrative", and then updated it every month. What is the logic and standard for you to decide the star rating?

Sleeping in the rain: I think it is mainly the market's recognition, that is, the ability to attract market attention in the future. If the narrative has successfully attracted a lot of market attention, such as AI, then I will rate it higher.

I think Bitcoin has always been a five-star narrative. Inscriptions may be a short-term hype, but runes will be better. They can help Bitcoin do more things. Although runes may have cooled down before, there will always be people who will promote them. The market will naturally pay attention to the Bitcoin ecosystem. Once a narrative emerges, people will participate.

But there is a narrative that I didn't get right at the beginning of the year, which is Solana. At that time, I ranked it as a four-star narrative, but now it seems that it is very strong in all aspects, and it is actually a five-star narrative.

BlockBeats: I saw that you later ranked it above Ethereum.

Rain in the Rain: I now understand that Ethereum is a very large asset. Europe and the United States are also promoting this point. It may be complicated, but its position is unshakable by Solana. I don't know if Ethereum can be replicated, but you need time. From this perspective, I basically didn’t participate in Bitcoin L2, so why don’t I play with Ethereum or Solana? Of course, I think there are wealth opportunities here, because there is attention, and it is a long-term sustainable thing. As for Ethereum, BlackRock’s RWA is placed on Ethereum. Since BlackRock has done this, I will follow targets such as ONDO.

BlockBeats: Every time you share your spot trading ideas in the group, you set a stop loss line. Where does the concept of "spot stop loss line" come from?

Sleeping in the Rain:Stop loss is more for the community. Each of us has different risk tolerance. For example, I can bear greater risks on some tokens, but you may not. One of my problems is that I am "very left-side". Some coins that I am particularly optimistic about will have a high prediction of their trends, which makes me feel uncomfortable holding many coins. For example, I think COW under the intention narrative has a lot of opportunities, so I have been holding it and I am not in a hurry. There is also WEN on Solana. This wave of retracement is all because I am too diamond-handed.

BlockBeats: What are your "left-side playing methods"?

Sleeping in the Rain:Catalysts for judging narratives. For example, I think the intention narrative may rise around Cancun, so I bought UNI and COW. Of course, their final rise may not be due to this reason. Some of this is also due to luck. Luck may not be so good on some tokens. I need to wait a long time to verify my own logic, but if it has risen a lot before, and I believe that the catalyst I am waiting for has not come, then I will most likely not sell it. In this PVP market, narratives rotate very quickly, and diamond hands are also easily injured.

BlockBeats: In fact, many people did not have time to get off the train during the retracement in April, and almost no one thought that the bear market would last so long.

Sleeping in the Rain: In fact, the market has already told you, for example, Bitcoin's six consecutive positive monthly lines actually need a retracement demand. I think I had a chance to leave at the time, but I still didn't think clearly, which was also a mistake of mine.

BlockBeats: What didn't you think clearly?

Sleeping in the Rain: I didn't think clearly about the demand for the callback and the strength of the callback, and I developed feelings for the altcoins.

Views on the market

BlockBeats: What other hype expectations do you think there are in this cycle?

Sleeping in the rain:In addition to the expectation of liquidity returning after the interest rate cut, there are also macro expectations for the general election. Under this expectation, the demands of all parties should be stability and the competition for crypto voters. However, if there is no new expectation support in the future, the market may enter a state of silence. Liquidity is not very good now. I will not be too optimistic. Of course, when liquidity comes back, a new wave of opportunities will emerge. This is a very long-term thing.

BlockBeats: Well, every cycle is different, right?

Sleeping in the Rain:Yes, I think predictions are not important, and we should think about what state the market is in. For example, on April 29, I thought the market had entered the bottom stage because I saw that the community was too pessimistic, and there was a feeling of deep bearishness. But think about it, this year is an election year, and it is unlikely that there will be any major events, at least it should be stable.

There were too many people who were bearish at the time, so I thought I could buy some targets at the bottom. At that time, I chose Ethereum, and I also bought a lot of targets related to its ecology. Anyway, there is a stop loss line, and if I make a wrong judgment, I will surrender.

BlockBeats: There are a lot of discussions about high FDV and low circulation now. What do you think?

Sleeping in the Rain:I think this will bring a new narrative, and the market will also look for tokens that are fully circulated, unlocked, and fully priced by the market. In fact, I also read Cobie's article. His core point is that the market's buying actually occurred at the primary level, not at the secondary level, which may lead to the performance of new coins not being so good when they are launched.

In fact, there have been discussions on social media about "not taking over each other". I think it is very important that this is a market problem, and the market will gradually realize it and then improve it. I think the market may slowly grow to a smarter state in the future, and in essence, it is actually insufficient market liquidity.

BlockBeats: Do you think the crypto market will have the "super-large increase" of the past few rounds of bull markets?

Sleeping in the Rain:I think there will be, because the cryptocurrency world gives us a chance to gamble. Although we cannot regularly build the cryptocurrency world into a casino, as GCR mentioned, many people participate in the cryptocurrency world because it is like a casino. It is more convenient than going to Macau, and the certainty of making money is (probably) higher than Macau. So the cryptocurrency world and altcoins will not die out. As long as there is market demand, it will always exist, and there will be people who make a fuss based on altcoins.

BlockBeats: Which direction will you focus on in the next period of time?

Sleeping in the Rain:My main position is now on Ethereum, for example, Pendle is my long-term position. This is mentioned in my May Outlook, of course, I put ETH relatively late when I wrote it. In addition, AI is also placed relatively late, one is because there are more catalysts recently, and the other is because the overall market is very anti-human. When everyone is optimistic about AI, its performance is not good, and those optimistic people need to be washed out.

In addition, I also have some positions in Solana, but I generally don’t take the initiative to buy. I also wrote the main task of Solana in the group name, which is to accumulate the currency standard in hand. Participate more in the Solana ecosystem, everything is for the growth of the SOL currency standard in hand.

BlockBeats: The last question, how long do you think it will take for the cottage market to return to its original price position?

Sleeping in the Rain: I am still optimistic about the market outlook, especially Ethereum, which has a chance to break new highs. After the expectations are overdrawn, I will choose to rest.

欢迎加入律动 BlockBeats 官方社群:

Telegram 订阅群:https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram 交流群:https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter 官方账号:https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia

Choose Library
Add Library
Add Library
Visible to myself only