Layerzero token ZRO valuation and price prediction, when is the best time to sell?

24-06-20 11:30
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Original author: Axel Bitblaze, crypto researcher
Original translation: TechFlow


Risk warning: The following content is a compilation of market opinions and does not represent investment advice. Please DYOR for more specific information.


Let's talk about what you are most concerned about at the moment. At what price will $ZRO be released and what is the value of your $ZRO airdrop allocation?


Here are my thoughts on LayerZero's airdrop allocation, price prediction, and listing plan.



Airdrop Allocation


I agree with most people's criticism of the poor execution of the airdrop model. I mean a lot of people have been grinding for a whole year and only got 200-300 tokens. I think they should add another 1-2% to the core allocation, and the situation will be much better.


But it is still possible that the Core allocations will increase regardless. Since all the witches have not been cleared, these allocations will be rotated back to people. Considering the number of witches they caught, this may increase the number of Core allocations by a large margin.


(See comments for details)


A lot of people hate me for holding Kanpai Panda, but they don't take into account that I, like them, have been working on LayerZero for a year and put guides on it.


I got the same allocation in the Core part, and Kanpai was part of the RFQ.



Price Prediction


First, in order to predict the price of $ZRO when it is released, we need to find the following data:


· Assumed FDV

· Total Supply


Then, the price of $ZRO when it is released will be calculated as: FDV / Total Supply.


As @PrimordialAA mentioned, total supply is 1 billion, so how do you estimate FDV?


My preferred method for estimating FDV at launch is to look at the FDV of recent projects with similar funding and competitors. For this, I will consider $STRK & $W launches.



So, why $STRK & $W ?


After reading the post above, you can see that predicting price involves considering the FDV of recently launched projects, their funding, and their valuations, which is why I am looking at $STRK & $W launches, as their public and private valuations can help us predict $ZRO FDV.



Recent project comparison:


$STRK:

· Raised: $282M

· Valuation: $8 billion

· Launch FDV: $28 billion


$W:

· Raised: $225M

· Valuation: $2.5 billion

· Launch FDV: $17 billion


$ZRO:

· Raised: $263M

· Valuation: $3 billion

· Launch FDV:?



From the above it is clear that:


· $STRK launched at 3.5x higher FDV than its valuation.

· $W launched at 6.5x higher price than its valuation.


Given the poor market conditions, I think a valuation of 2-3x of at least $3B is reasonable for $ZRO, which means $6B - $9B.


What about the price? FDV / Total Supply · Total Supply $ZRO: 1 billion


$ZRO Price:

· $6 billion FDV = $6

· $7 billion FDV = $7

· $8 billion FDV = $8

· $9 billion FDV = $9



My "Game" Plan


I think LayerZero is here to stay. Unlike L1 and L2 chains, which need to actively attract people to join, LayerZero is more like an infrastructure project, and almost all existing and upcoming projects will use it as a cross-chain layer.


This means that even if users don't consciously use LayerZero technology, they will still be exposed to it because it has been integrated into many projects. This is different from L1 and L2, where you have to convince people to actually use your chain.


FDV and Target Price:


· At $5 billion FDV or below: I would buy more

· At around $8 billion FDV, I would consider selling some

· I would liquidate between $15 billion and $20 billion FDV


Price-wise


· $5 or below: Buy

· Sell some at $8

· Liquidate between $15-20



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