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Trump wins! 2024 US election results are out | US election real-time data and information at a glance
Summarized by AI
At 3:00 p.m. on November 6, Beijing time, the results of the 2024 U.S. election were preliminarily determined.
This election has attracted particular attention, not only because the two candidates have remarkable backgrounds and campaign journeys, but also because it is a general election that is superimposed with major political and economic changes and turmoil in the United States and even around the world.
During the countdown to the election, BlockBeats will update the latest election data in real time and sort out key hot news to help readers better follow and understand the dynamics of the election.
Real-time data
Electoral votes
According to the real-time statistics of the Associated Press, Harris won 214 electoral votes and Trump won 247 votes. However, according to predictions from many U.S. media, Trump will win Pennsylvania and lock in the election victory.
Battle in key swing states
In the real-time vote count of key states, Trump won Pennsylvania, a key swing state, after winning Georgia, and is ahead of Harris in other swing states.
Currently, Michigan and Wisconsin are still in the Too Close To Call stage, but Trump has basically won Pennsylvania and has taken the lead in securing victory in the election. More vote counting results need to wait for further statistical observation.
Latest News
11-06 14:31
Mark Cuban: Trump "won a fair victory"
Harris' ally, billionaire Mark Cuban, said Trump "won a fair victory." (Golden Ten)
11-06 14:30
Musk: X (Twitter) usage hits record high
Musk said that X (Twitter) is now in record usage.
11-06 14:23
According to the Decision Desk Office, Trump is predicted to win the US election.
11-06 14:22
According to market news, Trump won Pennsylvania.
11-06 14:21
Harris won New Hampshire on Wednesday, extending the state's 20-year streak of four consecutive electoral votes going to Democrats.
New Hampshire has gone Democratic in seven of the past eight presidential elections. Harris' win came nine months after the Democratic National Committee bypassed New Hampshire for its first presidential primary.
This is the third time Republican Donald Trump has won the New Hampshire Republican primary but lost the state in the general election. The Associated Press declared Harris the winner at 1:16 a.m. ET.
11-06 14:06
Georgia Becomes First State to Change Party
With Trump's victory in Georgia, the state became the first to flip from the 2020 results. Four years ago, Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden in Georgia by 11,779 votes - a number widely remembered for his request that Georgia election officials help him find an extra vote to give him a win over Biden.
Trump has since been criminally indicted in Georgia on a charge of widespread extortion, to which he has pleaded not guilty.
11-06 14:03
Trump wins Nebraska's 1st Congressional District and 1 electoral vote
Trump won the electoral votes associated with Nebraska's 1st Congressional District. The former president easily defeated Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris in the district that includes the Nebraska capital of Lincoln and surrounding rural areas.
The district has long supported Republican candidates and has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992, when Nebraska allocated electoral votes based on the popular vote among districts. The Associated Press declared Trump the winner at 1:01 a.m. ET.
11-06 14:02
Harris campaign addresses demoralized election night gathering: 'We still have votes to count'
Harris campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond told the assembled crowd at a scheduled election night party for Democratic candidates at Howard University that the vice president would not speak tonight but the campaign would not give up the fight against Trump.
"We still have votes to count. There are still some states that have not yet counted the results. We're going to continue to fight through the night to make sure every vote is counted and that everyone has a say," Richmond said. "So you won't hear from the vice president tonight, but you will hear from her tomorrow."
Richmond said Harris would return to Howard "to speak not only to her supporters, but to the nation." The event began as a celebratory event to celebrate Harris's election and the prospects of a new president, but the atmosphere began to sour as the Democratic path to victory became narrower.
11-06 14:00
Trump won the swing state of Georgia on Wednesday, returning the state's 16 electoral votes to the Republican camp.
Joe Biden narrowly won Georgia in 2020, but Republicans have won every presidential election in Georgia since 1996. Trump's attempt to overturn his 2020 loss in Georgia has sparked a political and legal battle that has led to his prosecution in the state.
Trump's victory is proof that Georgia still leans Republican, despite the state having two Democratic U.S. senators. There were six candidates on the Georgia ballot, but votes for Claudia De La Cruz and Cornel West were not counted. The Associated Press declared Trump the winner at 12:58 a.m. ET.
11-06 13:56
Republicans take the lead and win the Senate
In the US presidential election, Republicans took the lead in winning control of the US Senate, giving the Republicans strong influence in the high-stakes tax and spending battle and the final say over the next president's executive and judicial nominations.
The growing prospect that Trump may win the presidential election has triggered a sharp sell-off in the bond market, with traders speculating that his tax cuts and tariffs will increase inflationary pressures and keep the federal funds rate high.
Any new tax bill will need to be approved by the Republican-controlled Senate, but the balance of power over how to deal with expiring tax cuts still depends on which party controls the presidency and the US House of Representatives.
The Democrats even have a slim Senate majority in this election, and because the term of office of members is six years, only one-third of senators face re-election in this election. (Jinshi)
11-06 13:51
US media: The atmosphere of Harris donors' gathering is like a "funeral"
According to NBC News, at a gathering of Harris' major donors held at a hotel in Washington, a Democrat likened the atmosphere to a "funeral." An official from Harris's campaign team simply summed up the mood: "Not good."
At the beginning of the night, Harris's campaign officials expressed confidence that they believed Harris would win. As soon as the results came out, their mood was obviously eased, almost gloomy.
On Tuesday night, Harris' campaign chairwoman Jen O'Malley Dillon said the Democratic candidate still had a chance to win in the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which were still evenly matched at midnight on the East Coast. "Pray for a miracle," said a former Biden campaign aide. "Hope is on the blue wall." (Jinshi)
11-06 13:49
Musk releases "entering the White House" meme
Musk released a "entering the White House" meme on the social platform, showing him holding a wash basin in his hand and standing in front of the White House President's Office. After Musk successfully acquired Twitter, he posted a video on Twitter of himself entering Twitter headquarters holding a wash basin, which became a news hotspot, suggesting that the acquisition of Twitter has been finalized.
11-06 13:44
Harris will not give a speech at Howard University
On November 6, US Vice President Harris will not give a speech at Howard University tonight.
11-06 13:36
NBC News: Trump is expected to win in the key state of Georgia
According to NBC News: Trump is expected to win in the key state of Georgia. (Note: The state has 16 electoral votes) (Golden Ten)
11-06 13:27
Musk: Personal pressure is nothing compared to what Trump is facing
Musk wrote about the pressure he faces, saying "It's really a lot of pressure, but it's nothing compared to what President Trump is facing. They tried to murder him twice, bankrupt him, and imprison him forever."
11-06 13:18
The Associated Press predicts that Harris will win 1 electoral vote in a key district in Nebraska
The Associated Press predicts that Harris will win 1 electoral vote in a key district in Nebraska. (Golden Ten)
11-06 13:02
Harris won Hawaii's 4 electoral votes. This is the tenth consecutive time that Hawaii has chosen a Democratic candidate for the presidential election.
The state last chose a Republican for the nation’s highest office 40 years ago, when Ronald Reagan won in 1984.
Hawaii is a solidly Democratic state, with Democrats controlling all statewide elected offices and the state’s two U.S. House seats. Democrats have also long controlled more than three-quarters of the state House and Senate seats. The Associated Press declared Harris the winner at 12:00 a.m. ET.
11-06 12:45
Harris won Virginia, adding 13 electoral votes to her total. Harris’ win marks the third time Donald Trump has lost the Old Dominion state.
Democratic presidential candidates have won Virginia in every election since 2008. The Associated Press declared Harris the winner at 11:42 PM ET.
11-06 12:40
Harris wins New Mexico, adding 5 electoral votes to the Democratic Party.
Democratic influence in New Mexico has only grown over the past two decades, with former President George W. Bush the last Republican to win the state in 2004.
Harris never campaigned in the state, but her support in more populous parts of New Mexico outpaced conservative voters as second-term Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and members of the state's congressional delegation ran on the vice president's behalf. The Associated Press declared Harris the winner at 11:33 p.m. ET.
11-06 12:37
BlackRock: All aspects of the market show that Trump will win
While it is too early to draw conclusions about the White House race, as many key battleground states remain undecided, there are clear capital flows in areas ranging from government bond markets to gambling websites, indicating that Trump is not far from victory.
The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds rose by nearly 20 basis points, while the yield on similar Australian bonds rose by nearly 12 basis points. The dollar rose and stock markets generally strengthened. Craig Vardy, head of BlackRock's fixed income department, said that the interest rate market is "bear steepening", which is the trend under the expectation of Trump's victory. (Golden Ten)
11-06 12:30
Harris' Howard Night Atmosphere Turns from Joy to Anxiety
The mood at Harris's election night party at Howard University turned from nervous to anxious as the campaign calls began to roll in.
The musical performances and victory speeches that aired earlier in the evening had been replaced by the occasional DJ mix and broadcast campaign calls. As the night wore on, the intensity of the campaign took hold, with anxious looks and whispers in the crowd.
The still-packed crowd occasionally quieted down as attendees watched a giant projection of CNN. Rallygoers cheered and waved American flags as the election in staunchly Democratic states like her home state of California moved in her favor.
11-06 12:29
Harris wins Oregon, adding eight electoral votes to her total. Oregon gained a congressional seat after the 2020 census, giving it one more electoral vote this cycle than in the last presidential election.
The Democratic presidential candidate has won Oregon since 1988. The Associated Press declared Harris the winner at 11:23 PM ET.
11-06 12:21
Trump won the battleground state of North Carolina on Tuesday. Trump received the state's 16 electoral votes after defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Trump also won the state in 2016 and 2020, but Democrats had been optimistic they could overturn previous results through campaign spending, canvassing and Harris rallies. They also tried to tie Trump to embattled Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.
But Trump and running mate JD Vance visited North Carolina frequently during the fall campaign, pushing a more protectionist economic agenda and promising to crack down on illegal immigration and the southern border. The Associated Press declared Trump the winner at 11:18 p.m. ET.
11-06 12:11
According to Google's presidential election results, voting in three states on the West Coast ended at 11 p.m. local time. After Oregon began counting votes, Harris temporarily led Trump, as follows:
· Trump received 39.2% of the votes, with 431,171 votes;
· Harris received 58.4% of the votes, with 636,369 votes.
In addition, the last key "swing state" Nevada has not yet begun to release data.
11-06 11:53
Voting in western states of the United States is about to end
According to the Associated Press, polls will close at 11 p.m. ET in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.
As of posting time, it is 22:53 p.m. ET.
11-06 11:50
Trump won the Iowa election on Tuesday, securing the state's six electoral votes. Once considered a swing state, Iowa has proven Trump's appeal among Republican voters and his staying power within the GOP.
Most Iowans supported Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but decisively chose Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Now, Trump has won the state for the third time in a row after easily winning the Iowa Republican caucuses earlier this year and bolstering his reelection bid. The Associated Press declared Trump the winner at 10:40 p.m. ET.
11-06 1:49
Trump won Kansas's six electoral votes on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press campaign report. Republican candidates have won Kansas in every presidential election since 1964, and this is Trump's third consecutive win in the state.
Once a reliable Republican stronghold, Kansas City suburbs began to tilt toward the Democratic Party after Trump was elected president in 2016, but Trump still maintains strong popularity in much of the state, especially in rural areas. The Associated Press announced Trump's victory at 10:39 pm Eastern Time.
11-06 11:46
In the past hour, the entire network has been liquidated for $200 million, mainly short orders
According to Coinglass data, in the past hour, the entire network has been liquidated for $200 million, of which long orders were liquidated for $29.3977 million and short orders were liquidated for $171 million.
In the past 12 hours, the total liquidation of the entire network reached 365 million US dollars.
11-06 11:39
US election live: Trump is temporarily ahead of Harris in 6 "swing states"
According to Google's presidential election results, except for Nevada, which has not yet begun to release data, Trump is currently temporarily ahead of Harris in 6 key "swing states" including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
11-06 11:19
US media: Trump camp is active and cheers are heard
According to the New York Times, the atmosphere at Trump's campaign party at the Palm Beach Convention Center has changed significantly in the past few minutes. As Trump's prospects have become brighter, Republicans have become more and more noisy.
When the vote count showed that Trump had narrowed the gap with Harris in Pennsylvania, cheers rang out throughout the hall. Partygoers wore gorgeous "MAGA" costumes and shouted "fight", and the scene looked like a Trump rally. But Trump was not there. (Golden Ten) 11-06 11:18 ...
11-06 11:10
Trump has turned red in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, having previously lagged far behind
Trump has turned around in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, after lagging far behind before.
11-06 11:09
Bitcoin rose to $75,000, setting a new record high
Bitcoin briefly rose to $75,000, setting a new record high.
11-06 11:07
Bitcoin broke through $74,000, setting a new record high
Bitcoin broke through $74,000, setting a new record high.
11-06 11:05
Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, now at $73,888
According to HTX market data, Bitcoin hits a new all-time high after 236 days, now at $73,888.
The previous high was $73,777 on March 14, 2024.
11-06 10:58
DOGE breaks through $0.2, up more than 24% in 24 hours
According to HTX market data, DOGE breaks through $0.2, up more than 24% in 24 hours.
11-06 10:07
Associated Press: Trump is expected to win South Dakota, Louisiana and Wyoming
According to the Associated Press, Trump is expected to win South Dakota, Louisiana and Wyoming.
The Associated Press declared the winner of the election when statewide polls closed. The AP makes that determination only when AP VoteCast results show a candidate leading by at least 15 percentage points. AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey of the 2024 electorate that covers all 50 states. The AP uses VoteCast results to identify a state's long-term political trends and voting history.
11-06 10:06
AP: Trump projected to win North Dakota, Texas
Trump projected to win North Dakota, Texas, according to the Associated Press.
The Associated Press declared the winner of the election when statewide polls closed. The Associated Press only makes such a call if AP VoteCast polling results show a candidate leading by at least 15 percentage points. AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey of 2024 voters covering all 50 states. The Associated Press uses VoteCast results to confirm a state's long-term political trends and voting history.
11-06 10:06
AP: Harris is expected to win New York
U.S. Vice President Harris is expected to win the state of New York, according to the Associated Press.
The Associated Press declares the winner of the election when polls close across the state. The Associated Press only makes such a call if AP VoteCast polling results show a candidate leading by at least 15 percentage points. AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey of the 2024 electorate, covering all 50 states. The Associated Press uses VoteCast results to identify a state's long-term political trends and voting history.
11-06 10:01
AP: Trump is expected to win Nebraska
Trump is expected to win Nebraska, according to the Associated Press.
The Associated Press declares the winner of the election when polls close statewide. The AP makes such a determination only when AP VoteCast results show a candidate leading by at least 15 percentage points. AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey of 2024 voters covering all 50 states. The AP uses VoteCast results to confirm a state's long-term political trends and voting history.
11-06 09:56
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon continued to avoid endorsing any presidential candidate today, instead calling for a statement on Election Day to call for unity, according to CNBC.
"The United States is about to end one of the "toughest" and "most divisive" elections in recent history," he said. "The American people are making a decision. We must start working together to unite the country and focus on the urgent economic and global issues at hand."
Trump claimed in October that he had Dimon's support, which JPMorgan Chase flatly denied.
11-06 09:43
According to CCTV News, according to the Associated Press's forecast at 20:30 Eastern Time, Trump won Arkansas. Harris won New Jersey and Delaware. Trump currently has 101 electoral votes and Harris has 52.
11-06 09:40
AP: Harris is expected to win Illinois
According to the Associated Press, US Vice President Harris is expected to win Illinois (19 electoral votes).
The Associated Press declares the winner of the election when polls close statewide. The AP makes that determination only if AP VoteCast results show a candidate leading by at least 15 percentage points. AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey of the 2024 electorate that covers all 50 states. The AP uses VoteCast results to identify a state's long-term political trends and voting history.
11-06 09:38
NBC News: Harris projected to win Delaware
According to NBC News, Harris is projected to win Delaware.
11-06 09:32
AP: Trump is expected to win Arkansas
Trump is expected to win Arkansas, according to the Associated Press.
The Associated Press declares the winner of the election when polls close statewide. The AP makes that determination only when AP VoteCast results show a candidate leading by at least 15 percentage points. AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey of the 2024 electorate that covers all 50 states. The Associated Press uses VoteCast results to confirm a state's long-term political trends and voting history.
11-06 09:32
AP: Harris expected to win New Jersey
US Vice President Harris is expected to win New Jersey (14 electoral votes), according to the Associated Press.
The Associated Press declares the winner of the election when polls close statewide. The Associated Press only makes such a determination when AP VoteCast results show a candidate leading by at least 15 percentage points. AP VoteCast is a comprehensive survey of the 2024 electorate that covers all 50 states. The Associated Press uses VoteCast results to confirm a state's long-term political trends and voting history.
11-06 09:31
Trump: If I win Pennsylvania, we win the whole election
Former U.S. President Donald Trump said if he wins Pennsylvania, he wins the whole election, while calling in from a radio show in Philadelphia to continue urging Republican voters to stay at the polls.
“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole election,” Trump said on Philadelphia’s 1210 WPHT talk radio show. “We’re going to make this country greater than ever before, but you’ve got to stay at the polls. Don’t let them hold you back. You have an absolute legal right to get your vote in there because if we win Pennsylvania, if we win the old commonwealth, we’re going to win everything. We win everything.” He said the “big question” is whether he can get more support in Philadelphia, which has long been a Democratic stronghold. (Jinshi)
11-06 09:29
US election concept Meme coins generally rose, DMAGA rose more than 163% in 24 hours
According to GMGN monitoring, US election concept Meme coins generally rose, including:
TRUMP rose more than 16% in 24 hours, temporarily reported at 4.06 US dollars;
PAC rose more than 113% in 24 hours, temporarily reported at 0.004 US dollars;
MAGA rose more than 19% in 24 hours, temporarily reported at 0.0001952 USD;
DOGE rose more than 11% in 24 hours, temporarily reported at 0.18065 USD;
PEOPLE rose more than 14% in 24 hours, temporarily reported at 0.06831 USD;
DMAGA rose more than 163% in 24 hours, temporarily reported at 0.01872 USD;
KAMA fell slightly by 6.7% in 24 hours, temporarily reported at 0.01068 USD.
BlockBeats reminds users that the market of Meme tokens is volatile and most of them have no actual use cases. Pay attention to asset protection and do not FOMO.
11-06 09:13
16 states and Washington, D.C. have ended voting for the general election
As of 9 a.m. Beijing time today (November 6), polling stations in 16 states and Washington, D.C. have closed one after another.
According to the Associated Press, Republican presidential candidate Trump won Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida, and Tennessee, with a total of 95 electoral votes. Democratic candidate Harris won Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Washington, D.C., with a total of 35 candidate votes. (Golden Ten)
11-0522:21
Trump deputy JD Vance has voted in person in Ohio
According to CNN, Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance voted in person at a polling station in Cincinnati, Ohio this morning.
11-05 21:11
According to CNN, the key "swing states" Arizona and Wisconsin have opened voting at 8 a.m. Eastern Time (21:00 Beijing Time), and other states that are open at the same time include: Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas.
So far, Nevada, close to the west coast of North America, is the only state that has not yet opened voting among the seven swing states.
11-05 20:40
Long queues in front of polling stations in the "swing state" North Carolina
According to CNN, people lined up outside the Loyal Order of the Moose polling station in Wilmington, North Carolina, which opened on time at 6:30 a.m. Eastern Time. There were 30 to 40 people in line when the polls opened, and the crowd continued to grow.
11-05 20:36
Former US presidential candidate: Young Americans are increasingly inclined to support Trump
According to CNN, Vivek Ramaswamy, a supporter of former presidential candidate and Donald Trump, said that Trump's campaign has attracted more attention from groups that have historically voted for the Democratic Party, including black voters, Hispanics and Generation Z.
Ramaswamy said that Generation Z is motivated by a desire to stay away from foreign conflicts, avoid "World War III", develop the economy, and reduce housing costs, which are the issues that young Americans care about most.
When asked whether Trump should admit defeat if he loses the election, Ramaswamy said, "Winning is winning, and whoever loses should admit defeat," but Ramaswamy also claimed that the 2020 election was "ruined" by Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party.
BlockBeats Note: On January 15, 2024, Vivek Ramaswamy, an Indian-American entrepreneur and Republican presidential candidate, announced his withdrawal from the race and said he would "fully support" former President Trump's candidacy.
11-05 20:29
US election live: Three key swing states, including Pennsylvania, have started voting
According to CNN, as of 7 a.m. Eastern Time (20:00 Beijing Time), more than 20 states have started voting. These include three key swing states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. The specific list is as follows:
· Alabama, Delaware, Washington, D.C., Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee.
The states that opened voting at 6 a.m. Eastern Time include: Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, New Hampshire, Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky and Maine.
11-05 20:02
According to CNN, Trump's senior advisers said they are cautiously optimistic about Donald Trump's performance today. They believe that Trump's performance in this election is the strongest in history, especially compared with the polls in 2016 and 2020.
The consultant said: "We feel that the situation now is that if the people we think will support President Trump (can actually vote) support him, then he should win. So the key is to achieve this goal, and voter turnout is very important. The time for the final victory has come, and it is very close."
11-05 19:52
US election live: 8 states including New York have opened voting
According to CNN, polling stations in 8 states including New York have opened at 6 a.m. Eastern Time (19:00 Beijing Time). The states that are currently fully open include: Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, New Hampshire and Virginia.
States that have not fully opened include: Indiana and Kentucky (open at 7 a.m. in the Central Time Zone), Maine (cities with a population of less than 500 will open at 10 a.m. at the latest).
BlockBeats previously reported that the small town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire voted at midnight in accordance with decades of tradition, with Vice President Harris and former President Trump tied with three votes each.
11-05 19:40
According to the "landing" timeline of previous election results released by Bloomberg, 3-4 of the past 7 elections (in 2016, it was the early morning of the second day) had results announced on the same night, as follows:
· Biden in 2020: The Associated Press announced the winner at 11:26 (EST) four days after Election Day
· Trump in 2016: The Associated Press announced the winner at 02:29 (EST) one day after Election Day
· Obama in 2012: The Associated Press announced the winner at 23:38 (EST) on Election Day
· Obama in 2008: The Associated Press announced the winner at 23:18 (EST) on Election Day
· Bush in 2004: Democratic candidate John Kerry conceded defeat one day after Election Day
·
· 1996 Bush: Democratic candidate Al Gore conceded defeat 36 days after Election Day
· 1996 Clinton: Associated Press announced the winner at 21:00 (EST) on Election Day
BlockBeats Note: Since Beijing time is 13 hours ahead of US Eastern Time, if the results of this election are implemented normally, the final results will most likely be released around 12:00 noon Beijing time tomorrow.
11-05 19:21
Pre-election closing poll shows Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points
The closing poll released by National Public Radio (NPR), PBS and Marist Poll shows that US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris leads Republican presidential candidate Trump by 4 percentage points in national support.
Harris received the support of 51% of likely voters, while Trump's support rate was 47%, just outside the 3.5% error margin. This result is very similar to four years ago. The 2020 poll results showed that Biden's support rate was 51%, while Trump's support rate was 47%, and Trump also lagged behind by 4 percentage points. (Jiemian News)
11-05 17:54
Live poll of US election: Seven swing states are in a stalemate, Pennsylvania's support rate is tied
The battle between the two sides in the US election is still deadlocked, and the "leading advantage" is minimal. In the seven swing states, the largest so-called "leading advantage" of both sides is less than 2 percentage points, and even tied in Pennsylvania, and it is difficult to tell the winner until the last moment.
Polls show:
In the United States, Harris's support rate is 48.4% and Trump's support rate is 47.2%;
In Pennsylvania, Harris and Trump are tied, with support rates of 48.2%;
In Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, Trump's advantage is 0.6% to 1.6%;
In Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris leads by 1.1% to 1.6%.
11-05 17:32
According to market information, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose nearly 3% before the market, Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.O) rose more than 8% before the market, Microsoft (MSFT) rose 0.34%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) rose 3.6%.
11-05 17:08
K33 Research research director Vetle Lunde released data showing that Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw their second largest single-day net outflow this year yesterday, reaching 8,352 bitcoins. On May 1 this year, a single-day net outflow of 11,964 bitcoins was recorded, the highest for the year.
Lunde said the massive outflow could be related to investors' risk aversion to the U.S. election. Nevertheless, he stressed that net inflows over the past five days remained strongly positive, reaching 14,157 bitcoins.
11-05 17:00
Trump completes last campaign rally: We will defeat the evil Democratic system
According to CNN, in the early morning of the 5th, Eastern Time (this afternoon Beijing Time), Trump held his last campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Trump had previously held the last rallies of his campaign in the city in 2016 and 2020. This time, his speech lasted nearly two hours, reiterating many of his campaign promises, such as vowing to impose high tariffs and crack down on illegal immigration. He ended his long campaign with a marathon speech - Trump said he had attended more than 900 rallies this year.
At the rally, Trump also said that the real opponent in the election was not Vice President Kamala Harris, but the "evil Democratic system." "We will defeat the corrupt system in Washington. Because I'm not fighting Kamala, I'm fighting the evil Democratic system. These are evil people."
11-05 13:04
Federal Reserve decision postponed one day due to US election
Affected by the US election and winter time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 03:00 am on November 8 (Friday) Beijing time. As usual, the Federal Reserve holds interest rate meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday and announces the results of the resolution in the early morning of Thursday Beijing time, but this time it happened to coincide with the US election voting, so the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was postponed for one day. Voting for the 2024 US election will begin at 13:00 on November 5 (Tuesday) Beijing time. (Jinshi)
11-05 13:01
2024 US Election Day Voting Begins
November 5, local time, is the official voting day for the US presidential election. Just after midnight on November 5, Eastern Time, voters in the small town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, took the lead in voting, marking the official start of voting for the 60th US presidential election. (CCTV News)
11-05 12:38
Top trader Eugene: If Trump wins the election, Bitcoin may rise the most
Top trader Eugene said on the social platform that Bitcoin has the biggest increase when replying to Twitter user @AbiTrades_ about which altcoins may rise the most if Trump wins the election.
11-05 12:33
Citi: The market is most concerned about the election, and US stocks are likely to set new highs
Citi analysts said that elections often have a significant impact on market trends before voting, but traders seem to be more focused on other things this year. Analysts pointed out that several market indicators that usually flash before the US election are significantly calm this year, indicating that concerns about the impact of the election on the market may be less than in previous years. They believe that traders are not focusing on the election, but on the US economy and earnings season.
Analysts said the strong performance of U.S. stocks in the weeks leading up to Election Day was likely driven by the strength of the U.S. economic situation rather than investors building positions in the "Trump trade" or "Harris trade." As in previous years, there is a good chance that stocks will rebound after the election. They said that with most companies reporting solid results in the latest earnings season, current market positioning will make it very likely that stocks will rebound after the Nov. 5 vote and potentially climb to new highs in the new year. (Golden Ten)
11-05 11:38
Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss posted on social media, "The Harris-Biden administration has made the crypto industry pay $500 million in legal fees. Vote for Trump and that number will drop to zero; vote for Harris and the fees will surge to billions of dollars."
11-05 08:47
Harris' final message to supporters: Enjoy the election
According to CNN According to reports, with less than a day left before the election, Democratic presidential candidate Harris held rallies across Pennsylvania, trying to show a united vision. "What you have to do today, and what you have been doing, is for us to enjoy it," said Harris's canvassers.
At one of the events, Harris again avoided saying the name of her Republican opponent, instead referring to Trump as "the other guy." "There's a big difference between me and the other guy, and that's what everybody knows, and that's why you're here to help us get votes," Harris said. The divisions in contemporary American politics "make people feel lonely," Harris said.
"So I've been thinking about our campaign over the next 24 hours, when we vote, when we canvass, let's be intentional about building communities, building alliances, reminding people that we all have more in common than what separates us from each other." (Jin Shi)
11-05 08:45
Trump to speak in Pittsburgh, targeting voters concerned about inflation and immigration
Former U.S. President Trump will take the stage in Pittsburgh soon to deliver a closing speech to voters, aiming to make a final statement that only he can improve the lives of Americans.
According to excerpts of the speech provided by the Trump campaign, he is expected to speak directly to voters, saying that voters are troubled by soaring inflation and are tired of "war and chaos abroad and devastating invasions on our southern border." (Jinshi)
11-05 08:36
Several US media reported that as of November 3, 75 million voters in the United States have voted by voting in advance or by mailing in their ballots. This is almost half of all the votes cast in the 2020 US election.
Among the voters who have voted in advance in the United States this year, 37.9% are registered as Democratic voters and 36.2% are registered as Republican voters, and the two sides are evenly matched.
Four years ago, a total of 155 million American voters participated in the general election. Early voting schedules vary from state to state and region to region, and so far in at least nine states, more than half of eligible voters have already voted early.
11-05 08:26
Musk's "million-dollar lottery" event is allowed to continue
A campaign by Elon Musk to give away millions of dollars a day to voters ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election escaped a legal challenge from the Philadelphia district attorney after a judge in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, refused to block it.
A Pennsylvania judge rejected a request by the district attorney to stop the contest, which he called an illegal lottery. Musk's lawyers said at a hearing that the winners of the contest were not picked at random.
The winners were chosen based on their "fit" to be public spokespeople for Musk's political action committee, often based on their personal stories. The judge issued his ruling shortly after, without argument. (Jinshi)
11-05 08:23
BlockBeats news, on November 5, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) U.S. stock price rose 8% after the market, and the stock closed up more than 12% overnight. (Jinshi)
11-05 08:12
On the Polymarket platform, Trump's chance of winning has risen to 58.5%, while Harris' chance of winning the election has dropped to 41.4%, now leading Harris by more than 17 percentage points.
11-05 01:12
A Polymarket user sold $3.15 million betting on Trump's victory in the past hour
According to Lookonchain monitoring, Polymarket whale user "larpas" is selling all his positions betting on Trump's victory in the US election. In the past hour, he has sold positions worth about $3.15 million.
Interestingly, just 20 hours ago, the whale withdrew $500,000 USDC from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory. Just 20 hours later, he regretted it and is selling all his positions.
11-05 00:31
David Kelly, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may suspend its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. He said, "If Trump wins the election, then he will adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which may trigger a trade war, the deficit will expand, and interest rates will rise."
Kelly also said that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its interest rate decision on Friday, even if the election is held before then. (Golden Ten)
11-04 22:23
Robert Kennedy Jr. canvasses for Trump
Former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posted on social media, "Vote for Trump. No matter which state you live in, don't vote for me. Let's send President Trump back to the White House and send me to Washington so that we can make America healthy again, end endless wars, and protect our civil liberties."
11-04 22:10
Billionaire Mark Cuban canvasses for Harris
Billionaire Mark Cuban Cuban posted on social media, "Join me in the largest telephone campaign to help Kamala Harris be elected as the next President of the United States. The "All for Kamala" campaign will start at 10 am Eastern Time on Election Day."
11-04 21:55
A Polymarket user spent $14.13 million betting on Trump's victory
The largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has added $2.35 million in bets on Trump's victory in the past 6 hours. The address has spent a total of $14.13 million betting on Trump's victory.
11-04 21:26
Trump and Harris will both go to Pittsburgh for rallies on the last day before the election
Kamala Harris will visit Pennsylvania on the 4th local time. She will start in Scranton and conduct a mobilization event, and then go to Yartown and Reading, which have large Puerto Rican communities, where she will attend a rally with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Next, she will go to Pittsburgh for a rally, where she will attend with her second husband Doug Emhoff. Harris and Emhoff will then go to Philadelphia, where she will make a final pitch to voters in Pennsylvania.
11-04 20:38
CNBC: Trump plans to hold rallies in three key states on the last day before the election
Trump will divide his time between three key states on the last day before the election.
According to the Trump campaign, rallies are planned in Raleigh, North Carolina, Reading, Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, Michigan, and Grand Rapids.
Grand Rapids holds a unique place in Trump’s campaign history: As Michigan’s second-largest city, it was Trump’s last stop on election eve in his two previous presidential campaigns.
11-04 20:12
JP Morgan estimates Trump’s chances of winning are 60-70%
JP Morgan estimates Trump’s chances of winning are 60-70% and predicts the dollar will rise by 5% if a Republican wins the election and 1.5-2% if Congress is split.
11-04 16:16
Analyst: Markets should remain cautious amid uncertainty in the US election
Michael D Zezas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that the main goal of investors during the US election should be to build situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election results and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations.
He said that the increase in the probability of a Republican victory implied by the forecast market has led some to expect that the election will produce a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes that this is possible, but not the most likely scenario.
Neither candidate seems to be the clear favorite to win the Electoral College, so the long vote count in 2020 may reappear. Morgan Stanley is not putting too much stock in early voting data, given its poor past performance, and advises against over-interpreting short-term market moves. The firm said short-term market reactions to elections tend to be noisy and may not be indicative of medium-term trends.
11-04 15:16
Latest Updates on US Presidential Election: Polls Show Harris Leading in Early Voting
With less than 48 hours until the US election and more than 77.6 million votes cast, new polls show Harris leading in early voting in key states. The Democratic candidate leads by 8% among voters who have already voted, while opponent Trump has an advantage among voters who are "very likely to vote but have not yet voted."
According to polls by The New York Times and Siena College, Harris is slightly ahead in three swing states, Trump is ahead in one state, and three other states are too close to call.
In the remaining hours of campaigning, Harris spoke in Michigan, while Republican opponent Trump complained about the gaps in the bulletproof shield around him at a rally in Pennsylvania and hinted that he would not mind reporters being shot if an assassination attempt occurred.
11-04 12:56
With the US election and interest rate meeting this week, traders suggest that cash is king
On November 4, due to the dense major events this week, the US election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, most traders believe that this week will be volatile and may be violent, because the election is likely to have a controversial result, dragging the counting of votes for weeks or even months.
At the same time, hedge funds are betting on greater price fluctuations. Data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) earlier this month showed that large speculators turned net long in VIX futures for the first time since January 2019.
Several senior Wall Street traders suggest that cash is king. Among them, Robert Schein, chief investment officer of Blanke Schein Wealth Management, said he has increased his holdings of cash equivalents from the usual 5% to 10%. His strategy is to be ready to snap up assets when the results inevitably trigger volatility in at least some markets.
Eric Diton, president and managing director of Wealth Alliance, said in an interview: "We will not make any positioning for the election results because it is equivalent to flipping a coin. There is no point in betting."
11-04 12:39
Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 index (SPX) is higher in the three months before the election, the incumbent party candidate has an 80% probability of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 index is lower in the three months before the election, the probability of the other party candidate winning is 89%.
It is reported that this has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators said that if the S&P 500 index had not wiped out 8% of its gains since August in one day, Harris would have a good chance of winning.
At the same time, market experts interviewed also pointed out that the current market and political landscape are very unique, making this election more likely to be an exception to the above historical experience.
11-04 12:17
Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If Harris wins, the US dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week
The New Zealand dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar in early trading on November 4 due to possible position adjustments ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) global economics and market research team said in a report that the U.S. dollar "has the potential to trade in a wide range this week" due to the election. The team said the dollar could climb if Trump leads in early counts of in-person voting. However, Democratic voters are more inclined to vote by mail or in person in advance, and these ballots take longer to count.
Therefore, the team said Trump's lead could narrow or disappear later this week. The team added that if Harris wins, the dollar could depreciate by 1%-2% this week.
11-04 11:05
The US non-farm data in October was far below expectations. Excluding the data distortion caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the labor market is also gradually cooling down.
At the same time, the results of the US election are about to be announced, Trump's chances of winning have unexpectedly weakened, and the "Trump deal" has reversed, adding more uncertainty to the election. According to 4E monitoring, the financial reports of major technology giants were released last week. Although Apple's financial report was disappointing on Friday, the weak US non-farm data in October boosted expectations of interest rate cuts. In addition, Amazon and Intel, which had favorable financial reports, boosted optimism in technology stocks. The Nasdaq closed up 0.8%.
But on a weekly basis, U.S. stocks fell all week, with the Nasdaq falling 1.5% for the week, the S&P falling 1.4%, and the Dow falling 0.2%. The crypto market was affected by the weakening of the "Trump deal", and risk aversion increased after approaching a record high at the end of the month. As of press time, Bitcoin was at $68,885, up 0.25%, and the 7-day gain closed down to 1.8%.
11-04 10:35
David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said that if Trump wins the U.S. election this week, the Federal Reserve may suspend its easing cycle as early as December. Because Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling.
Kelly noted that if the Republicans win big in a Trump victory, there will be more expansionary fiscal policy, which could lead to trade wars and larger deficits, which will lead to higher interest rates.
On the other hand, Kelly said that if Vice President Harris wins, the economy could continue on its soft landing trajectory. In this case, the Fed would likely stick to its expected path of accommodative policy.
11-04 09:12
According to the analysis of Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the forward volatility of BTC and ETH soared overnight. Bitcoin's volatility is currently 80.30%, higher than the previous 72.20%, and Ethereum's volatility is currently 82.92%, higher than the previous 75.40%.
Nick Forster said that this upgrade reflects that traders are preparing for the election results, which may greatly affect market prices. There is a two-thirds probability that election night will lead to large price fluctuations. BTC's volatility range is between -8.97% and +9.85%, and ETH's volatility range is slightly larger, between -9.25% and +10.19%.
Nick Forster added that BTC's total open interest in call options is 1,179, while the total open interest in put options is 885, which clearly shows that despite the potential volatility, the market still tends to be bullish.
11-04 08:52
Des Moines Register Poll: Trump's support in the "light red state" Iowa was reversed by Harris
According to the analysis of Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the forward volatility of BTC and ETH surged overnight. The volatility of Bitcoin is currently 80.30%, higher than the previous 72.20%, and the volatility of Ethereum is currently 82.92%, higher than the previous 75.40%.
Nick Forster said that this upgrade reflects that traders are preparing for the election results, which may greatly affect market prices. There is a two-thirds probability that election night will lead to large price fluctuations. BTC's volatility range is between -8.97% and +9.85%, and ETH's volatility range is slightly larger, between -9.25% and +10.19%.
Nick Forster added that BTC's total open interest in call options is 1,179, while the total open interest in put options is 885, which clearly shows that despite the potential volatility, the market still tends to be bullish.
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