Original Article Title: "Metrics Ventures: Bitcoin Bottom Establishment and Outlook for the New Crypto Market Cycle"

Original Article Author: Metrics Ventures

1/ Following our April viewpoint, Bitcoin and global risk asset prices definitively established the bottom this month as expected, with Bitcoin for the first time in years becoming the best-performing USD asset post-liquidity crisis recovery, a pleasant surprise. As of the date of this month's report, the actual Bitcoin price center has broken through the March consolidation range.

2/ Looking at the entire month, after the heavy turnover of the past 3 months, Bitcoin has actually entered a state of supply exhaustion, with the mild dominance of the long and short trading volume always moderate. In terms of on-chain sentiment, a large number of on-chain traders are shorting the overall market and altcoins, which also aligns with the judgment of many long-time market participants based on fundamental chip theory and emotional trading habits that a top has been reached.

3/ There's no need to say much about altcoins. Despite some new listing tokens and the strong controlling interest in old coins represented by SUI attempting price rallies, the overall performance is still unsatisfactory. It is hard to say when the profitable effect will return before the influx of new liquidity and emotional climax. We are also seeing more and more crypto-related assets choosing to embrace various liquidity acquisition paths such as SPAC and listings on exchanges like Nasdaq. It is foreseeable that the flow of funds in the next liquidity cycle is undergoing a silent transformation, and the existing old altcoins are facing a more severe challenge.

Market Overview and Trend Analysis:

This month's market can be considered significant. In the process of volatility convergence after large fluctuations, the strength and weakness of assets often represent a change in trend direction. Bitcoin's strength has exceeded the expectations of many participants. However, we believe that this period precisely illustrates several very important points:

1/ Bitcoin still does not have a centralized selling pressure issue. The current sell-offs are mostly from the old coin circle and tradable floating chips. Therefore, the end of the cycle should be premised on liquidity exhaustion and inflection points, which contradicts the actual trend of global liquidity at present;

2/ MicroStrategy’s Q1 2025 report revealed a miracle in the history of fund circles. We believe this is not understood by the market. To put it simply, in Q1 2025, MicroStrategy raised $7.7 billion through direct issuance, issuance of convertible bonds, and convertible bonds, higher than the $4.4 billion in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, in the midst of a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market, MicroStrategy became one of the most resilient USD risk assets, with trading volume consistently in the top ten of U.S. stocks, which is jaw-dropping. Even more astonishingly, from the results, this is a stock that the entire market welcomes to reduce holdings through issuance, a miracle in the history of human capital markets. The market significantly underestimates MicroStrategy's actual financing and purchasing power, and existing arrogance and bias will likely lead to greater potential for emotional reversal in the future;

3/ If before 2024, we thought that the pricing power was only "transferred," at this moment, we can conclude that the transfer of pricing power has been completed. The so-called old coin circle analysis framework will mostly be eliminated, and research on asset attributes, the dollar cycle, and asset operation rules will be more rewarded by the market. The circulation path of the coin circle's liquidity will also confirm the above conclusion in the next round of emotional ups and downs.

Overall, we are very optimistic about the future trend of BTC. This is partly based on the inevitability of the increased liquidity growth rate and partly on the deviation between the actual trend and market participants' understanding.

Speaking of altcoins, we also believe that the current new altcoin operation model linked to the US stock market will be a highlight in the next round of emotional overflow cycles, worthy of attention from all industry peers.

Finally, let's briefly discuss our view on RMB assets. The RMB's magnificent transformation from a fundamental perspective will be like the outstanding performance of the J-10CE in the India-Pakistan conflict, slowly making the world realize time and time again. This will gradually highlight the RMB asset's entry into a new uptrend, continuously raising the bottom. The divergence between price and fundamentals here is due to the long-term bearish inertia, precisely the best positioning range. Global easing is already on the way, and the just-concluded high-profile financial voicing is an important signal. Do not get lost in the chaotic American drama. Global central banks have actually made their choices.

To some extent, BTC in the eyes of industry insiders in the crypto industry is like A-shares in the eyes of the vast Chinese people. What we want to say coincides. Using a poem as a concise summary of the past market trends of the two major MVC heavy industries and the outlook for the future:

Red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, violet, who holds the colorful ribbon dancing in the sky?

After the rain, the sun shines again, the mountain passes are emerald.

Back then, fierce battles, bullet holes in the wall.

Adorning this mountain pass, it looks better today.

This article is a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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